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I will say it again. Let the Argies have the oil and the Brits keep the islands and the sheep. Everybody would be happy except BP and the warmongers.
"A 1995 agreement between the UK and Argentina had set the terms for exploitation of offshore resources including oil reserves as geological surveys had shown there might be up to 60 billion barrels (9.5 billion cubic metres) of oil under the seabed surrounding the islands. However in 2007 Argentina unilaterally withdrew from the agreement."
Exocet missile ahoy. Sure that French invention didn't please the British too much during that war.
I kind of tend to beleive that a 30 year old antiship missle will not be effective against modern shipboard anti-missle technology, don't you think?
Even then, the effect of excocets in the falklands was overstated, with of three hits, one being a dud, the Sheffield sinking from mishanlding rather than the missle. British had the anti-missle technology at the time, and none of the ships equiped with this were hit. It just so happens a few ships were not equiped.
I don't know what upgraded anti-ship missle technology the Argentines have, China sells some impressive missles, but 30 years have improved anti-ship missle counters considerably, particularly since weapons technology has focused on gulf war blockade scenarios with Iran where anti-ship missles will undoubtedly be used.
Amazing how the Argentine government is saber rattling on this one again after all this time.
1982
"In 1982 the Galtieri government hoped to mobilise Argentines' long-standing patriotic feelings towards the islands and thus divert public attention from the country's chronic economic problems and the regime's ongoing human rights violations. Such action would also bolster its dwindling legitimacy."
2011
"Some private-sector estimates put inflation for 2010 at around 25%, much higher than the official 10.9% rate for 2010. Inflation estimates from Argentina's provinces are also higher than the government's figures."
"The government threatens inflation analysts with fine of up to 500,000 pesos if they don't report how they calculate their inflation estimates, which these economists consider as an attempt to limit the availability of independent estimates."
(quotes from Wikipedia)
The joys of using Foreign Policy to detract from social issues rearing it's head again maybe?
The Argentine military junta was and is still despised to this day by a vast percentage of the Argentine public. There was massive unemployment and high inflation in early 1982 and the people of that country resented the heavyhandedness of the military dictatorship.
When General Leopoldo Fortunato Galtieri spoke to a huge crowd assembled in the capital city of Buenos Aires, with people waving flags and signs celebrating the reincorporation of territory they believe is rightfully theirs, Argentines and the world heard the words, "Si quieren venir que vengan, les presentaremos batalla!" (If you want to come, come; we'll give you a battle!)
The British did have a fearsome opponent in their hands, but today, it wouldn't even be a contest. If anything Great Britain would win so easily it'd be laughable to the extent the Brits might pity the Argentines.
Consider:
- The British now have satellite technology which would inform them in advance of any massing of Argentine forces, and the Falkland Islanders can use the Internet to tell the world of any invasion.
- After the British won the conflict, they built RAF Mount Pleasant, a modern air base. There are 4 Eurofighter Typhoon strike fighters, a Hercules transport plane, and a VC-10 tanker plane. In addition, the Islands now have Rapier missile batteries and a garrison of 1,200 soldiers. The Argentines would need a massive army to even try to take Mount Pleasant and the RAF would spot them well before they were midpoint towards the archipelago and blow them out of the Atlantic Ocean's waters.
- In the past 3 decades, the military technology of the United Kingdom has advanced 60 years; the Argentine armed forces have mostly equipment from the 1970s and 1980s. I have, in fact, read Spanish-language commentary by Argentine veterans who said "it's not that our weapons were obsolete; the Brits' weapons were stuff out of science fiction." This in 1982.
- Argentina has demilitarized since the war - it has become a democracy and it is weaker than it was in 1982. In late 2008, an Argentine daily lamented that while Brazil, its large and rich neighbor, was striking military technology deals with France, Argentina barely had enough ammunition for ONE day of combat. Granted, that might be enough to try to attack the islands - but how many countries outside of the United States, Russia, Germany, France, and China are really realistically able to fight a conventional war against Great Britain?
And lately there has been debate in Argentina about what the right viewpoint is. A number of intellectuals wishes to debate the islands' sovereignty from the viewpoint of acknowledging the existence and right to self-determination of the Falkland Islanders. This document, in English titled "Falklands: An Alternative View," these intellectuals said, “The inhabitants of the Falklands must be recognized… Respect their way of life implies the abdication of an intention to impose a sovereignty, citizenship and a government who they do not want.”
The government in London will not even negotiate, and the authorities in the Falklands see no need to negotiate because they have absolutely no desire to become part of Argentina.
There won't be another war. Argentina can't afford it and it'd lose in humiliating fashion. The islands will remain British.
Last edited by Sprawling_Homeowner; 04-02-2012 at 11:53 AM..
Britain recently gutted their navy. Leaves them without the means to redo the 1982 amphibious landing.
Not really necessary, what with a 1200 man garrison, 4 modern fighters and a very modern anti-aircraft "destroyer" (10,000 ton destroyer? It's a cruiser, RN, stop being coy...) - to say nothing of the nuclear sub whose position nobody is going to confirm or deny.
No way in hell Argentina is going to pull off a landing against those odds.
The British army is made of true soldiers, the Argentine army is a political police force. The Brits could land enough men from submarines to defeat the Argentine army.
The British army is made of true soldiers, the Argentine army is a political police force. The Brits could land enough men from submarines to defeat the Argentine army.
This.
The only reason the Argies got a foothold in 1982 was due to total surprise. Considering how the current President is saber rattling as her way to distract from the takeover of the Central Bank, I don't think the Brits will be fooled this time.
The British army is made of true soldiers, the Argentine army is a political police force. The Brits could land enough men from submarines to defeat the Argentine army.
Quite true about the British Army, but if it endures any more personnel cuts, the whole Army may FIT into a sub; that is, if the Royal Navy still has any in commission!
Quite true about the British Army, but if it endures any more personnel cuts, the whole Army may FIT into a sub; that is, if the Royal Navy still has any in commission!
And even still the military power of Great Britain will always be more than enough to defeat any Argentine attempt to retake the Falkland Islands by force.
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