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Retail, hospitality and transportation aren't only getting hit as hard as O&G, they're getting hit harder. Here in the city of Houston, if you single out each industry, those are getting hit a lot harder than O&G. I'm not an pro oil nor do I work in the oil industry, but this city data bias that oil is the hardest hit industry during COVID-19 is laughable. Houston is home to a good share of retail brands, and they all have been suffering through this, harder than O&G. Houston is home to a lot of national and global restaurant chains, and guess what, they're been getting hit harder than oil as well.
Then again, I'm actually an economist while these people are probably oil workers and see it from their perspective. So that may be why.O&G is also going to recover faster than a lot faster than any hospitality related sector because it's a necessity rather than a residential choice.
So back to the original question, is Houston going to get hit harder than the average big city? My prediction is it'll get hit slightly less than the average big city.
I hope youre right and Im wrong. I just dont think I am.
Retail, hospitality and transportation aren't only getting hit as hard as O&G, they're getting hit harder. Here in the city of Houston, if you single out each industry, those are getting hit a lot harder than O&G. I'm not an pro oil nor do I work in the oil industry, but this city data bias that oil is the hardest hit industry during COVID-19 is laughable. Houston is home to a good share of retail brands, and they all have been suffering through this, harder than O&G. Houston is home to a lot of national and global restaurant chains, and guess what, they're been getting hit harder than oil as well.
Then again, I'm actually an economist while these people are probably oil workers and see it from their perspective. So that may be why.O&G is also going to recover faster than a lot faster than any hospitality related sector because it's a necessity rather than a residential choice.
So back to the original question, is Houston going to get hit harder than the average big city? My prediction is it'll get hit slightly less than the average big city.
The rest of the economy had just come off the biggest bull market in history, while O&G is on year 10 of tepid returns. In addition, I’d wager other sectors rebound much faster — there is no light at the end of the tunnel for O&G. Even once demand picks back up you still have a over abundance of supply and an uncertain regulatory environment. Restaurants will be back to normal by the end of the year, oil companies are in for a long ride.
I think the author of this article is reaching way too far. First off, here on the east coast, I’ve note no (zero) recognition that Houston and Texas are models of battling the virus. That includes both local and national press (and I am a huge news consumer). Secondly, it’s premature to declare success in tackling the virus while infection rates and death tolls remain on the rise. Let’s park the “Mission Accomplished” rhetoric for now.
And probably most relevant is the authors passing reference to $20 oil. Houston has worked to wean its economic lifeline away from a reliance on O&G, but at the end of the day, the two are enmeshed. And there appears to be little on the horizon that foretells of a return to a normal demand for fuel as the national economy looks to sputter for at least the next year and global competitors see little upside to reducing supply to a level that will make E&P a solid investment anytime soon. Further, though not addressed by the author, we know the climate and topography of Houston are at best tolerated by most transfers rather than embraced. Houston’s pull has always been its job market and cost of living - not its quality of living. Until the economic future is firmed up, locals are looking merely to hang onto their jobs. I don’t see an abundance of opportunity for anyone looking to pack up and head to Texas now or anytime soon.
Finally, the idea that Houston has more “fortitude” than the rest of the country could only be suggested by someone with little exposure to the rest of the world. It exemplifies the unwarranted braggadocio that Texans are unfortunately noted for as well as it reflects a misplaced mythology held by many natives who have never lived elsewhere that it’s always better in Texas. It’s not.
It’s just a puff piece with a poorly thought out premise. But hey - it never hurts to dream, does it?
I view the article from a completely different perspective. Considering the population of Houston exceeds the population of some states, to-date, there is a low rate of death (as bad as that sounds). Of course this could drastically change as C19 continues its cycle. Given this, assuming the job market doesn’t completely dry up, you could make a strong case that for people who want to leave high dense areas in the country and still have access to big city amenities that Houston is positioned well.
On your points about climate and quality of life (QoL), these are highly subjective areas. You have no statistics to back up your tolerate claim. Having a “good” paying job typically equates to a higher QoL that provides funds to travel and experience life. You shouldn’t discount or overlook the job component. You could live in what many may consider the most beautiful place on earth with little to no access to monetary resources and have a low QoL.
If you are not afraid to sweat (just as you would in most of the US in the summer), Houston’s climate allows for activities outside all year around. I, like many others in Houston have a high QoL. As an east coast transplant who grew up in Miami, I like the climate. Is it perfect? No. I don’t think any place in the US has a perfect climate including our neighbors out west who live in the most populated state (too chilly at times even in the summer) ahead of TX. #bigcityamenitieswithspace
I hope youre right and Im wrong. I just dont think I am.
If we are speaking about right now, there's clear evidence that hospitality is getting hit harder than O&G. Have you seen the bankruptcies, missed rent payments, and closures? Nevada (which is severely hospitality-dependent) is at an all time high in unemployment. It's not a debate. Hospitality is getting hit far worse.
The question is if it will remain that way. And I think the answer is yes, at least in the short run (for the next year and a half or so). Coming out of a recession, people cut back on travel and leisure.
The rest of the economy had just come off the biggest bull market in history, while O&G is on year 10 of tepid returns. In addition, I’d wager other sectors rebound much faster — there is no light at the end of the tunnel for O&G. Even once demand picks back up you still have a over abundance of supply and an uncertain regulatory environment. Restaurants will be back to normal by the end of the year, oil companies are in for a long ride.
This is false. Restaurants will not be back to normal by the end of the year. No where close. You'll see a lot of closures in the coming year. From your username, you probably work in O&G, so I'm not going to pretend I know more about oil than you. You know what you're talking about there. While I don't work in a restaurant, I do financing and accounting for a good number of them. No one in the industry expects restaurants to be back to normal by the end of the year. Coming out of recessions, people cut back on travel and leisure.
This is also not a good thing for Houston either, I'm not saying it to justify the city's economy. Houston is one of the premier corporate centers for restaurant chains. My prediction for the oil industry is the same as the hospitality industry. You'll see a lot of layoffs, bankruptcies and closures for the next year or two, and those who survive the ride will benefit from the decline in supply in about 2 years.
Reading this I worry I am making a big mistake to move to Houston now without a job (spouse will have a nice job though as physician)? I am in corporate finance.
Quality of life wise, I think it depends what you are looking for. If you don’t like winters, small houses/little space, or walking/public transport to go places, you could argue that Houston has good quality of life. Florida probably more because of the beaches. San Diego and L.A. lose out on affordable spacious housing.
I wouldn't let a single internet post decide my future. I just think you need to investigate further if there are specific issues I raised in my post that make you curious. To me, the biggest concern I would have is moving to a city that may be on the verge of a serious economic slump. Oil & gas is not going to come back anytime soon, given the decline in travel we are likely to see until a vaccine is widely available.
You are right that QOL is very subjective. I greatly enjoyed my 26 years of living and working in Houston. The city has a particularly good performing arts and cultural scene if that interests you, and I took full advantage of it. The area is not terribly attractive and sprawls in all directions, with freeways heavily flanked by billboards and other ugliness. The nearest beaches in Galveston are largely hard-packed sand with brown water, due to the effluent from the Mississippi River carried by currents to the upper Texas coast. It looks nothing like any beach in Florida you may have in mind.
One of the biggest drawbacks for me was the weather. I am an outdoor person and I found the combination of heat and humidity oppressive for about 6 months of the year. I'd suggest you start looking at the weekly forecast and follow it into the summer. Not everyone dislikes this weather, but I'd suggest you factor your tolerance to it if you are moving from a more temperate state.
These are my observations and opinions and I don't plan to defend them should other posters disagree. You sound like you might benefit from further investigation and weigh my opinion along with any others you collect about the Houston economy and the pros and cons of moving there at this time. Best of luck to you.
Last edited by Pine to Vine; 05-11-2020 at 10:16 AM..
I view the article from a completely different perspective. Considering the population of Houston exceeds the population of some states, to-date, there is a low rate of death (as bad as that sounds). Of course this could drastically change as C19 continues its cycle. Given this, assuming the job market doesn’t completely dry up, you could make a strong case that for people who want to leave high dense areas in the country and still have access to big city amenities that Houston is positioned well.
On your points about climate and quality of life (QoL), these are highly subjective areas. You have no statistics to back up your tolerate claim. Having a “good” paying job typically equates to a higher QoL that provides funds to travel and experience life. You shouldn’t discount or overlook the job component. You could live in what many may consider the most beautiful place on earth with little to no access to monetary resources and have a low QoL.
If you are not afraid to sweat (just as you would in most of the US in the summer), Houston’s climate allows for activities outside all year around. I, like many others in Houston have a high QoL. As an east coast transplant who grew up in Miami, I like the climate. Is it perfect? No. I don’t think any place in the US has a perfect climate including our neighbors out west who live in the most populated state (too chilly at times even in the summer) ahead of TX. #bigcityamenitieswithspace
My opinion is just one of many, but is based on 26 years of living and working in Houston. Some may agree, others disagree. Nothing you or anyone else will post will alter my opinion, so I see no further need to make further posts in this thread, as I am not that invested in this topic. I just saw the title that implies Houston has a unique quality of fortitude, which I call BS, having lived in a number of other cities.
I think the author of this article is reaching way too far. First off, here on the east coast, I’ve note no (zero) recognition that Houston and Texas are models of battling the virus. That includes both local and national press (and I am a huge news consumer).
Ignorant of the fact that the East Coast-centric national media rarely covers anything 500 miles outside of NYC. West Coasters always complain about being ignored by the national media and the only Western stories are a few token stories filed by reporters in the L.A. or S.F. (less likely) bureau(s) about California.
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Further, though not addressed by the author, we know the climate and topography of Houston are at best tolerated by most transfers rather than embraced. Houston’s pull has always been its job market and cost of living - not its quality of living. Until the economic future is firmed up, locals are looking merely to hang onto their jobs. I don’t see an abundance of opportunity for anyone looking to pack up and head to Texas now or anytime soon.
So is the climate and topography of the East Coast. Ratty apartments in NYC and colonial townhomes in Philly city/county come into mind. The density helped the virus spread and took root deeper than in the rest of the country.
How is the unseasonable snow and cold feeling right now? Chicago is definitely going to warm up when it hits Memorial Day and not a day sooner--don't think it has gone over 70*F yet this year. (I think the cold will sneak in earlier in September this year, making the "summer" short.)
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Finally, the idea that Houston has more “fortitude” than the rest of the country could only be suggested by someone with little exposure to the rest of the world. It exemplifies the unwarranted braggadocio that Texans are unfortunately noted for as well as it reflects a misplaced mythology held by many natives who have never lived elsewhere that it’s always better in Texas. It’s not.
Houston was very fortunate that it wasn't the few cities chosen to accept international passengers from China. The cities with the airports that processed those international passengers are having higher infection rates. The 3 gateways of NYC, L.A. and S.F. are the hardest hit in the U.S.
Now let's talk about the braggadocio of the American Revolution and a misplaced mythology held by native-born Americans that it's always better in the U.S. (It's not, an example being the U.S. coronavirus response compared to the rest of the developed world).
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Originally Posted by robertobaggio
Reading this I worry I am making a big mistake to move to Houston now without a job (spouse will have a nice job though as physician)? I am in corporate finance.
Quality of life wise, I think it depends what you are looking for. If you don’t like winters, small houses/little space, or walking/public transport to go places, you could argue that Houston has good quality of life. Florida probably more because of the beaches. San Diego and L.A. lose out on affordable spacious housing.
I really think that post-COVID, Americans will be abandoning multi-family urban density for single-family in the sprawl. Abbott was worried about Tri-staters decamping to their second homes in Galveston and bringing the disease with them. We might see more New Yorkers fleeing NYC and moving to the Sunbelt (including SoCal) or suburban Chicago.
Houston was very fortunate that it wasn't the few cities chosen to accept international passengers from China. The cities with the airports that processed those international passengers are having higher infection rates. The 3 gateways of NYC, L.A. and S.F. are the hardest hit in the U.S.
I doubt this has anything to do with our numbers. By the time international arrivals from China are restricted all arrivals are required to go into two week quarantines. In fact Dallas which at the time accepts arrivals from China has fewer confirmed Covid cases than Houston.
I doubt this has anything to do with our numbers. By the time international arrivals from China are restricted all arrivals are required to go into two week quarantines. In fact Dallas which at the time accepts arrivals from China has fewer confirmed Covid cases than Houston.
It doesn’t. Numbers of international arrivals from China had virtually nothing to do with hotspots emerging.
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