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Many of the afternoon 12z model runs (Euro, GFS, ICON, CMC, UKMET and some others) now have Marco coming straight into Southeast Louisiana and not turning much West. We'll see what NHC does with the 5p and what evening model runs say.
Sat 22Aug 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT
Winds 65mph(100km/h), moving NNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 992mb
NHC indeed moved the cone East, brings Marco in near LA coast Monday. Some additional shifts are possible though. Most of this afternoons models bring Marco into SE LA. Laura will be right behind Marco somewhere in the region so if in Marco's path keep an eye on Laura for potential additional impacts and rounds of hazards depending where they end up in the end. Marco may be battling wind shear Sunday/Monday til at the coast so will be a battle of storm organization and wind shear(storms don't like). NHC has a Cat1 hurricane at the coast Monday for now. Uncertainty still remains.
Watch/Warning changes:
-Storm Surge Watch: TX/LA to AL/FL border including bays and larger lakes, 2-5ft depending on location which may continue to shift some. Surge Watch/Warnings are issued any time water could be 3ft or higher.
-Hurricane Watch: Intracoastal City (S of Lafayette) to MS/AL border including lakes.
-TS Watch: MS/AL to AL/FL border.
-Warnings in Mexico canceled.
*US Watches will likely change to 'Warnings' tonight since they're time based issued, not because something suddenly changed this evening. Watch = 48hrs or less, Warning = 36hours or less til starts. Depending on track changes these may be shifted/expanded West or East as well.
Sun 23Aug 8aEDT/AST,7aCDT
Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving NNW 13mph(20km/h), pressure 993mb
On the verge of becoming Cat1 hurricane, BUT don't be distracted by possible back and forth across that threshold potentially next 36hours. Effects are about the same strong TS/Cat1. What we want to watch is how it fairs with wind shear today/tonight. It's blowing Marco's storms off more to the NE, winds on the SW corner pretty calm. Marco could hold together, or it could weaken significantly. Shear may relax just before the coast and it could attempt to recover some but not likely much. NHC does say however they believe strongest winds will be confined to the coast and storm will significantly weaken once onshore. Regardless of what we see next 24-36hrs if in path prepare for a Cat1, hope for less.
-Watches changed to Warnings as expected (time based issued).
-Surge values have increased to possible 4-6ft some locations.
-Tornadoes will be possible Monday as rainbands come in, typically more common on the NE corner (top right from center).
-40mph winds is typically when you start seeing scattered power outages and tree issues.
Sun 23Aug 5pEDT/AST,4pCDT
Winds 75mph(120km/h)
Moving NNW 13mph(20Km/h)
Pressure 991mb
This is such a super small system. Per IR imagery cloud tops have warmed some = some weakening may be occurring as wind shear out of the SW continues to affect it and push scattered showers up into the coast, but some very small storms popped up last few frames of imagery near center though so we'll see what NHC rates it at this evening. Air recon just took off at 7pEDT/6pCDT.
Watch/Warning update:
-TS Warning added for Cameron to west of Morgan City, LA.
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