Why is IL losing people? (Chicago, Washington: renters, purchasing, contractors)

[Avondalist]

Originally Posted by Kmanshouse

Found GDP figures.

CA = 3.60T
TX = 2.36T
NY = 2.05T
FL = 1.39T
IL = 1.03T
PA = 0.92T
OH = 0.82T

And so on. Pretty much down the population lines, though IL out-performs PA per capita.

IL GDP increased by 9.3% year over year from 2021 to 2022. US average was 9.2%

On a per capita basis IL is middling in most regards, usually just above average. You also see this in demographics, where breakdown by age, race, etc are all middle of the pack. Illinois on the whole is a very average place to live, average to above average.

[Kmanshouse]

Originally Posted by Avondalist

On a per capita basis IL is middling in most regards, usually just above average. You also see this in demographics, where breakdown by age, race, etc are all middle of the pack. Illinois on the whole is a very average place to live, average to above average.

Sounds right - but you'd think it was the biggest sewer in the world according to some people.

[ChiGuy2.5]

Originally Posted by Grlzrl

Tides aren't getting higher and higher. Ian was a very unusual storm because the eye wall normally collapses on itself over and over but that didn't happen due to some unusual circumstances. It was a 1 in 100 year storm.

Sorry but sea levels are rising. It's a known fact. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html. I may have said Tide, but tides also rise with the sea level.

Ian is just one of many devastating hurricanes to hit the US in the past 20 years. Hurricanes are becoming increasingly more powerful as waters warm due to climate change. In addition, areas along the coasts are becoming more densely populated and as such, more damage and lives are lost in today's hurricanes than those of the past. Not to mention, many areas developed over natural barriers for incoming storm surges increasing the potential devastation. I'm not sure why you're strictly referring to Ian...

Originally Posted by RamenAddict

Not entirely- it’s also because Illinois didn’t have a budget for something like 3 years, and shockingly, having no budget is horrible for your credit rating. Pension debts aren’t related to having a teacher union. They are related to the way that IL offers pensions. Some states have state employees contribute to social security, while others don’t. That defers payments at the time the employees are working, but increases them dramatically when they retire because they have to pay both what social security would pay out and what the state would pay out in the other situation. This isn’t something unique to Illinois. I lived in the Jacksonville, FL area about 6 years ago and they have the same type of pension debt program because of the fire/police and other city workers retiring as early as age 40 and being able to pull full retirement for decades.

Once the pension is promised (and people usually do pay into them) as part of their benefit package, the government can’t really go back in and take that money away when people retire. Unfortunately there isn’t much that can be done now about pension debts from the past. Imagine being 60, retiring at 50, and being told that sorry, your pension isn’t available anymore. At that age, it isn’t like it will be easy for you to find a job again.

Chicago still has its benefits. Namely, property is cheap, but the taxes are likely comparable for what you would expect to pay in a large city with much higher real estate prices.

I only specifically called out teachers because it's the largest union in the state and had the most ridiculous pension benefits of any union. Tier 1 teachers can collect a full pension after 5 years of service. I know people who worked as teachers for 5 years, quit to have kids and never went back. Guess what? At 65 they can collect a full teachers pension. Granted it's based on their 5 years salary, but still. Tier 2 teachers aren't quite as lucrative. But I do realize it's ALL pensions that have this issue.

[Maintainschaos]

Originally Posted by Avondalist

On a per capita basis IL is middling in most regards, usually just above average. You also see this in demographics, where breakdown by age, race, etc are all middle of the pack. Illinois on the whole is a very average place to live, average to above average.

GDP per capita, IL is in the top 10 of all U.S. states and is at #3 of the top 10 most populated states (only NY and CA are above), so it definitely outperforms significantly on a per capita basis when it comes to economic output.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/city...-gdp-fl-2.html

As far as demographics go, yes, Illinois is pretty representative of the U.S. as a whole.

[Vlajos]

People leave Illinois due to high taxes, crime and weather. None of these factors will change, so it is highly likely IL will continue to lose population and relevance at the national level.

[Grlzrl]

Originally Posted by ChiGuy2.5

Sorry but sea levels are rising. It's a known fact. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html. I may have said Tide, but tides also rise with the sea level.

Ian is just one of many devastating hurricanes to hit the US in the past 20 years. Hurricanes are becoming increasingly more powerful as waters warm due to climate change. In addition, areas along the coasts are becoming more densely populated and as such, more damage and lives are lost in today's hurricanes than those of the past. Not to mention, many areas developed over natural barriers for incoming storm surges increasing the potential devastation. I'm not sure why you're strictly referring to Ian...


.

Not true. We actually have fewer storms now than in the past.

[RisingAurvandil]

The recent combination of high property tax + average income tax is not helping.

Property taxes have always been high. But it could be justified because income taxes were extremely low. 3% or less. In fact, there was no income tax up 'til around 1970. But income taxes were raised to 5% a few years ago, which is closer to the national average.

There are other annoyances. I would be ok with the high fuel taxes...if our roads reflected that, or if I saw new freeways being built. But they look rather similar to neighboring states who pay half the rate.

But I don't want to be all negative: IL does not tax retirement income. It does not tax Social Security. It essentially does not tax groceries. No personal property taxes. No local income taxes. Incomes are relatively high and housing is still affordable overall. And of course, Chicago is a world-class city that exceeds anywhere else in the Midwest. Several great universities. One of the world's preeminent airports.

[wjj]

Originally Posted by Grlzrl

Not true. We actually have fewer storms now than in the past.

Correct. Several analyses of historical data confirms that the frequency of Atlantic hurricanes has been pretty much flat for the last 150 years. It goes up and down over time but the trend line is flat. In SWFL where I have a home four hurricanes have hit the area this century - in 2004 (Charlie), 2005 (Wilma) , 2017 (Irma), and 2022 (Ian). We chose to live about 10 miles inland and have never flooded despite having direct hits from Irma and Ian (both went right over our house). Roof and pool cage damage with Irma but nothing with Ian which was a stronger hurricane when it hit us. Think of all the blizzards and tornadoes that have hit the Chicago area in the last 23 years. It's the same thing. Different kinds of weather events striking an area from time to time. Tornadoes and blizzards up north and hurricanes in FL. You just have to live with whatever comes your way weather wise wherever you happen to be. There are a lot of people in FL who are terrified of tornadoes since you don't know when and where they are going to hit. You have plenty of warning that a hurricane is on the way and those same people do not bother much with significant preparations for Cat 1 or low Cat 2 hurricanes. It is what you are used to.

[Avondalist]

Originally Posted by Maintainschaos

GDP per capita, IL is in the top 10 of all U.S. states and is at #3 of the top 10 most populated states (only NY and CA are above), so it definitely outperforms significantly on a per capita basis when it comes to economic output.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/city...-gdp-fl-2.html

As far as demographics go, yes, Illinois is pretty representative of the U.S. as a whole.

You're overstating IL's prosperity.

This is a good article that ranks the states according to PCPI, which takes regional costs into account.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...ersonal_income

The national PCPI is $56,490 according to the BEA. Illinois's is $60,527. Better than average, but not by much.

[ChiGuy2.5]

Originally Posted by Grlzrl

Not true. We actually have fewer storms now than in the past.

It is well known that today's hurricanes are more expensive and cost more lives than in the past. I never said we have more of them. I'm saying they are becoming more devastating to property and lives than in past years. It's why insurers are all leaving FL.