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I'm also curious as to where TSLA stock will be in 20 years because it is so over-valued. I believe the company will be going strong or purchased by Apple or Google 20 years from now. However, I have no idea where the stock will be. Two of my neighbors bought the Model S and they are so in love.
I think Elon Musk is absolutely brilliant.
Many "celebrity" entrepreneurs turn me off. I.e. A Donald Trump. But Musk strikes me as very authentic and genuine. I think he genuinely enjoys science and is passionate about space and moving to new frontiers.
I think there are two or three likely scenarios for Tesla.
A). We are at the forefront of a major revolution. Analogous to moving from the horse and buggy to the model t circa 1910. If that's the case, Tesla should be at the front of the pack leading the change/revolution.
B). It's not quite the end of regular cars. I think consumers may not change or give up their driving habits as fast as some car ceos want them to. Also, isn't the number of vehicle miles in the US going down?
If the economy/employment stay stuck for a long time, it seems like it'd be a negative for the car industry in general. But maybe tesla grabs more marketshare from leaders, gm, ford, etc.
C). Tesla becomes kind of a hybrid company. I.e. their expertise in other areas becomes as important, or more important than just making cars. (i.e. building battery packs).
I wonder if Musk will eventually end up working for the government in some capacity? In some type of science or engineering/space department.
I agree Elon Musk is a brilliant truly passionate and genuine CEO unlike Donald Trump etc. His reach and hopes goes far beyond Tesla from space exploration to public transportation to solar energy etc.
I think Tesla will likely have a combination of the outcomes you listed. Elon Musk already said they will make battery packs for homes etc from their future battery factory. I think they are and will be the forefront of electric cars, however, traditional cars will still make up the majority. I think there is enough demand for high quality performing electric cars that they won't have to take on Ford, GM, Toyota etc head on. Think of them like Apple. They sell their products for a very high premium, yet they didn't have any problems competing with the free 2-year contract phones, nor did the downturn in the economy hurt them.
I don't think Elon Musk will ever work for the government because it would be too restricting. He might act as a consultant for the government though, I don't know if that counts. I'm really excited to see the new Model X driving around town.
Tesla stock reminds me of the chasing of the tech stocks in the late 90s. It was said that there was no bubble and this was the new world. I know of a few people who had all their eggs in that basket and it still has not recovered all the years later. Tesla is not worth what its being sold for. That is not to say the car is bad, or the idea is bad, but just because someone has a good widget idea does not mean the price of the stock is worth the moon. Its chasing a stock and its very dangerous. As long as it goes up it will be impossible to tell someone this. When it pops they will never hear the I told you so. The very same people who think its great now will never sell and take profit, they are cult followers. I just listened to a guy come on the radio and say how after Mt Gox collapsed that Bitcoin was just as stable as good quality stock. You can not teach people that its not easy and usually very risky to get rich quick.
Tesla stock reminds me of the chasing of the tech stocks in the late 90s. It was said that there was no bubble and this was the new world. I know of a few people who had all their eggs in that basket and it still has not recovered all the years later. Tesla is not worth what its being sold for. That is not to say the car is bad, or the idea is bad, but just because someone has a good widget idea does not mean the price of the stock is worth the moon. Its chasing a stock and its very dangerous. As long as it goes up it will be impossible to tell someone this. When it pops they will never hear the I told you so. The very same people who think its great now will never sell and take profit, they are cult followers. I just listened to a guy come on the radio and say how after Mt Gox collapsed that Bitcoin was just as stable as good quality stock. You can not teach people that its not easy and usually very risky to get rich quick.
I actually don't view it the same way. During the dot com bubble, internet based companies and even the internet itself were still relatively new things. You had a huge influx of investors trading themselves for the first time thanks to online brokerages. I still think the market is irrational, but I would say we are still at least a few years away from a dot com bubble.
I don't think TSLA bulls think it will go up forever. In fact, I'm certain most bulls don't think it will go up forever. I think the bears are the ones who need a reality check. They keep saying the same story over and over and over and many of them have been shorting TSLA along the way up. Pretty much on any pullback, you see them come out in full force saying, "I told you" yet they forget to mention they have been bearish since it was in the $30s, $40s, $50s.
Buying a stock that is in an uptrend is NOT chasing a stock in my opinion. It's smart investing because you aren't predicting anything. It's going up, so I'm going to ride up with it. The bears are the ones making massive predictions that, OKAY THE BULL WILL STOP NOW! That is risky! As soon as it starts going into a downtrend, I would get rid of it no matter how much I previously loved it.
Some people get so caught up in being a "winner" that they don't realize the only winners and losers are people who are making money and people who are losing money. You should stay in a stock as long as it's working for you. When it stops working for you, get rid of her! That's how I manage the girls in my massage parlors in San Francisco and it has worked very well.
We did see bulls take profits, hell I even took profits. If TSLA were to fall below the 200 MA a week from now, I would be shorting it. The problem I see and I'm not speaking directly to you is people become so stubborn on their initial prediction or opinion that it ends up hurting them and many times they know it. I mean look at the OP, he hates the stock so much that he tries to justify it by attacking Tesla the company. You have to be out of your mind to think a Model S isn't a great car. When he was bearish on the stock and the stock continued taking off, he doubled down on his initial prediction/opinion and tried to justify by attacking Tesla the company. We are all here for the same reason, to make money, not to make predictions and then defend them to the very end.
I wonder if Musk will eventually end up working for the government in some capacity? In some type of science or engineering/space department.
Would be a great thing for our country if our government can have a transformation towards being filled with some of our brightest minds in areas of science, engineering, business, etc. We send our best athletes to represent the US at the olympics, we ought to have our smartest represent the US at home. Probably not in our lifetime though
Tesla was just an idea not too long ago.
How much would you pay for a really good idea. I
t's still at the stage of resisting the evaluation you would put on say... GE.
So what I ask myself is which one will sell to the world market, a money saving high quality product that could work anywhere. Even the noon.
Which one it run by the EDISON of our time.
That would be TESLA.
The price range is unknown but maybe 190 and 300 this presidential election term. Buy GE for the dividend. Or VTI is better. Tesla is not for the mortgage money. MAYBE a good bet for the beer money and Starbucks money.
I'm betting it will continue going to the up over time. 5-20 years.
Like coke-cola.
Tesla sold 22,477 cars in 2013, yet commands a market cap of $31 billion?
Fiat Group sold 4.4 million cars in 2013 -- irrespective its acquisition of the mighty Chrysler Group -- yet is priced at less than half of Tesla at $13 billion?
This implies Tesla would have to increase cars sold by around 46,700% to match auto industry comps.
Tesla is more like a tech company so valuations are different than your standard car maker. However, the only ones getting a laugh are the bulls... I don't think any short nay sayer is laughing lol.
TSLA is ripe for a short. Up until now it has been too strong. Unfortunately fundamentals make little sense in this market so you have to wait for the mania to reach its climax before diving in. I do not see immediate signs of short potential in this stock right now. But the signs are beginning to develop. I like to see grossly overvalued companies like this, you can make money on the way up and make money on the way down.
I personally don't have a problem with Tesla, the owner or their product. It just doesn't make economic sense. When you include the cost of battery replacement you will find that its much cheaper to get a 30+ mpg car to drive around than this. Not to mention the fact that for the vast majority of flyover country this car makes zero sense because of the range and lengthy recharge time. Electric vehicles will never replace the combustion engine.
They had better find a revenue stream for that extra capacity in that gigafactory they are building. This is the only thing thats gonna stop a complete collapse in this stock.
Tesla sold 22,477 cars in 2013, yet commands a market cap of $31 billion?
Fiat Group sold 4.4 million cars in 2013 -- irrespective its acquisition of the mighty Chrysler Group -- yet is priced at less than half of Tesla at $13 billion?
This implies Tesla would have to increase cars sold by around 46,700% to match auto industry comps.
I like a good laugh at lunchtime.
Do you laugh about Amazon also? Apple makes more profit in one quarter than Amazon has made in its lifetime. Yet Amazon sells for a giant premium.
Some stocks cannot be valued using traditional methods.
I have huge respect for Warren Buffett - even though he would never buy TSLA stock. Buffett also bought IBM, which is a stinker and likely to remain so for a long time.
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