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Dow futures up triple digits skirting 26k mark, will it cross 26k tomorrow.. that will be insane, 25k to 26k in a matter of days. I think momentum is there to cross 26k
ive been hearing it for years now. i wish someone knew exactly when the party is going to end so that i can sell. so far i have just heard a lot of people claiming that the crash is coming only to see the market keep climbing.
sooner or later, one of them will be right (or the person who keeps repeating it will eventually be right) and then i guess they will think they are a genius.
Agree.... I thought the top was a few years ago, it wasn't. Once Trump got elected I had a pretty good feeling that the market was going to run up, and I had no hedges in my portfolio until late in 2017 and I enjoyed the ride up along with other investors.
I still think we are going to run up in 2018 but there are some storm clouds gathering, such as the Korea situation, retail bankruptcies, house prices that keep running up. They are gathering, and I'm prepared for it with a hedge. If I'm wrong, I'm still going to make money, but just not as much as I could have.
......
I still think we are going to run up in 2018 but there are some storm clouds gathering, such as the Korea situation, retail bankruptcies, house prices that keep running up. They are gathering, and I'm prepared for it with a hedge. .......
You might be right but I would look at other factors. The world has always had political issues and wars and threats of wars. We have been sucked in more than we should have. Retail bankruptcies are going to continue. Retailing is changing with a higher level of competition, mass distribution of goods and online sales. Those changes do not reflect some underlying problem or a lack of spending. We could have easily predicted an increase in housing costs. The population continues to grow but for years after 2008 home construction virtually stopped. There is pent up demand. Rents are also high and increasing. That is a sign of growth, not some underlying problem or a temporary bubble.
There is little connect between wall street and main street . Historically all the best market gains are when a down turn ends long before there is even a ray of improvement in the economy. Just based on where we were a year ago we needed to see the growth we are showing.
All the downturns come when nothing could look better and new highs are being made. It is just blue skies and rainbows to the markets and then boom. It ends as things not on the radar send us plunging .
Markets always over do things compared to reality both going up and going down. That is why no matter how great the bull, the bear will always even the long term returns out within a very narrow range.
117 rolling 30 year time periods all play out the same within 2% . Thinking this time is different has always been wrong.
That equalization seems to always start 8-12 years in from any rolling time frame. The ones that need to rise
go up and the ones that need to come down reduce.
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-16-2018 at 07:02 AM..
I've never felt so much optimism, that usually means be cautious
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