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Pile two is mostly google. Great company, reasonable valuation if the share structure was normal, completely intolerable share structure, no dividend and share count going the wrong way. Your share gets no capital return and is irrelevant to someone looking for control due to the dual structure - what actual benefit do you get as a shareholder except the hope someone will buy it off you for more later? Google shares are almost closer to a collectible than an investment.
WMT and MSFT are overvalued on top of that.
Pile one is AMZN which again, great company, not worth what it is trading at.
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Originally Posted by Lowexpectations
Cool story when people talk about 10 baggers it’s kind of easy just to skip past it as it’s pretty uncommon or accompanied by larger losses. A good old internet love story
Exactly. I do 1.5-2x baggers pretty frequently but also not infrequently will lose 50% trying to catch a falling knife. The aggregate performance is good but looks much more like the S&P and much less like the home runs. For every person who takes the risk of inadequate diversification and then hits that kind of home run without an offsetting loss there is someone effectively bankrupting themselves.
Exactly. I do 1.5-2x baggers pretty frequently but also not infrequently will lose 50% trying to catch a falling knife. The aggregate performance is good but looks much more like the S&P and much less like the home runs. For every person who takes the risk of inadequate diversification and then hits that kind of home run without an offsetting loss there is someone effectively bankrupting themselves.
By 1.5-2 baggers, do you mean 50 to 100 percent, or 150 to 200 percent gains?
What are some of your current holdings that you expect to be 1.5-2 baggers? Over what time period?
I spent 30 minutes trying to find an ETF with all the stocks listed that the OP could invest in but couldn't find one that included WMT also because WMT is in more consumer retail based funds and not many funds mix WMT with AMZN and MSFT.
The only fund I could find that has a low expense ratio with most of the OP's stocks is the QQQ.. the tracking ETF for the nasdaq 100 index. Expense ratio .2%. I had a different one listed here then realized it didn't have AMZN in it.
By 1.5-2 baggers, do you mean 50 to 100 percent, or 150 to 200 percent gains?
What are some of your current holdings that you expect to be 1.5-2 baggers? Over what time period?
The former.
My next double is probably going to be Macy's (M). My cost basis is about $20, reasonable chance it hits $40 given the sheer amount of cash it throws off, good quarter, and the short interest getting squeezed out. That said it's not a slam dunk at the current price of $34. Bought less than a year ago - I'm perfectly happy collecting the dividend so wherever the stock goes I'm cool as long as the business performs and they keep paying out cash, but I'll sell at the long term capital gains mark if the price hits $45 or I see a compellingly better opportunity (have a bias against churn).
Granted for every dollar I'm up on Macy's I'm down sixty cents or so on CBL which goes to the whole portfolio vs. single stock thing.
My next double is probably going to be Macy's (M). My cost basis is about $20, reasonable chance it hits $40 given the sheer amount of cash it throws off, good quarter, and the short interest getting squeezed out. That said it's not a slam dunk at the current price of $34. Bought less than a year ago - I'm perfectly happy collecting the dividend so wherever the stock goes I'm cool as long as the business performs and they keep paying out cash, but I'll sell at the long term capital gains mark if the price hits $45 or I see a compellingly better opportunity (have a bias against churn).
Granted for every dollar I'm up on Macy's I'm down sixty cents or so on CBL which goes to the whole portfolio vs. single stock thing.
I own some Macy's, waiting for it to get long term. At current prices, my retail gamble is Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY). And I think Micron (MU) may outperform anything else that I own.
I honestly believe BBBY is a company that will go bankrupt or get bought for cheap
Always a possibility, but this is a remote possibility for the immediate future. BBBY is profitable (2018 guidance $2/sh. +) and no debt is due within five years. Cash flow/sh. is over $4.50/sh.
Here's another scenario. AMZN's stock price collapses as AWS margins fall and market share loss accelerates as MSFT, GOOGL and ORCL target AWS. AMZN no longer can subsidize its retail operations, and raises prices.
Meanwhile, BBBY continues to reform its business model to better compete with AMZN. BBBY now trades below book value, yields close to 4 percent, and it trades at one-half its 52-week high. BBBY is cheap now.
Macy's and other department stores were able to find their sea legs against AMZN. This may be a much easier task for a more focused and category-killer such as BBBY. The likes of Macy's may reduce/eliminate home goods given the fierce competitive environment.
Analysts are very negative on BBBY (a positive?). BBBY scares me, but that often is a good sign. Macy's scared me greatly when I was buying it under $20 less than a year ago. I didn't buy sufficient shares of M then, and I likely haven't bought sufficient shares of BBBY now.
M still scares me, but for many of the same reasons that BBBY scares me (AMZN onslaught).
Any good news for BBBY may result in a quick 33 percent pop. BBBY has sold over $24 every year for the last 12 years.
Always a possibility, but this is a remote possibility for the immediate future. BBBY is profitable (2018 guidance $2/sh. +) and no debt is due within five years. Cash flow/sh. is over $4.50/sh.
Here's another scenario. AMZN's stock price collapses as AWS margins fall and market share loss accelerates as MSFT, GOOGL and ORCL target AWS. AMZN no longer can subsidize its retail operations, and raises prices.
Meanwhile, BBBY continues to reform its business model to better compete with AMZN. BBBY now trades below book value, yields close to 4 percent, and it trades at one-half its 52-week high. BBBY is cheap now.
Macy's and other department stores were able to find their sea legs against AMZN. This may be a much easier task for a more focused and category-killer such as BBBY. The likes of Macy's may reduce/eliminate home goods given the fierce competitive environment.
Analysts are very negative on BBBY (a positive?). BBBY scares me, but that often is a good sign. Macy's scared me greatly when I was buying it under $20 less than a year ago. I didn't buy sufficient shares of M then, and I likely haven't bought sufficient shares of BBBY now.
M still scares me, but for many of the same reasons that BBBY scares me (AMZN onslaught).
Any good news for BBBY may result in a quick 33 percent pop. BBBY has sold over $24 every year for the last 12 years.
I like your thinking. I just bought some MTCH today. I believe theyll be able to better monetize the dating sites they own (most of the major ones)and keep growing renevues and profits and it also has a very large short position. I have BBBY on my watchlist but unless they can grow their revenues I dont see the stock going anywhere. The company bought back a bunch of their shares at higher prices. Its amazing how cheap a value stock can get and how expensive growth stocks can get... The market really punishes you if you dont grow or are in unpopular sectors (airlines, automakers, insurers)
MU is cheap if their earnings keep up.. The semiconductor sector tends to be very cyclical and the stock will get punished if RAM prices decline.
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