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Sometimes when you are within a range, when it breaks up or down, the price will move by the number of points within the range. We are basically right there at 240 (SPY). Do you think we will see the break down continue or see a relief rally this week...or do you think it's going to be flat?
I'm short right now with a tight trailing stop. I'm waiting for signs of a relief rally, but wouldn't be surprised if we see more red. However, I expect we are really close to getting some form of a rally, if we do, we could possibly test $260.
If there is a compromise in the government shutdown that could be catalyst for a relief rally. People might realize the economy is still doing fine and view this oversold market as a buying opportunity. We might get capitulation and then the above happening. I'd like to see the market test the previous support level and break through and then hold that level and eventually break through the previous resistance level. If that happens I'll be fairly certain we won't have a stock market crash. If we continue down, the chances of a crash happening seem more likely. If we get a relief rally, but can't break through the previous support line, it also would increase the chances of a crash happening. This will be an interesting market to talk about for a bit.
Futures are RED, short day tomorrow but I think it's a pivotal day.
I hope we go in a direction whatever it is, either continue going down or turnaround and continue the bull market. We could very well become range bound again, just within a lower range too. There are many possibilities as of now.
For people sitting on the sideline waiting... look for us to go way down followed by strong buying. You want to see a long candlestick where we close toward the top of that stick. You'd have an easy stop to use to limit risk.
Well, the good news is it's a holiday week, light trading - might keep things from spiraling out of control. Next week is also a holiday week.
Historically things will be "light" until the first full week of January in new year (7th of Monday in this case). Many simply take the two, three or whatever days between Christmas and New Year holiday per week, and combine them into one long vacation using minimum PTO days. This is especially true of non-Christians (such as Jews) when their holiday (Hanukkah for instance) finishes up before Christmas.
Of course if things start going down the drain (as in His Orangeness keeps running his mouth about firing Powell), and or some other event causes markets to react violently; then people will return from their holidays pronto.
While the question is about next week's stock market performance, I am looking at a longer term view.
A couple of bellwether companies I am familiar with have seen their stocks declining and will reduce staff next year. Global commerce has already slowed due to unrest in France, uncertainty over Brexit, and US/China trade disputes. US economy is still strong, but for how long? Personally, I would love to see a strong US economy going forward into next year and beyond. I would love for us to be immune from the problems that have slowed down other economies. That would mean, to me, we don't need China and Europe to thrive. That would mean we can part ways with China without a negative economic impact.
Futures are RED, short day tomorrow but I think it's a pivotal day.
Have you seen the story about Mnuchin calling banks' CEOs to check on banks' status, liquidity, any anamolies?
Most of the comments from economist/analysts/etc are shocked he would think what he did made people rest easier--because it calls up 2008...
So I think he wanted to get his name in the news in what he thought would be a positive, take charge way
And he just stuck his foot in the bucket...
Futures down 50 at 730 ET when I checked...
Hopefully individual investors will be too busy with Christmas to take it as a blow to their confidence and people in the market will see it for the self-aggrandizement it likely was
I was hoping the market would have paused vs tripping on down...
El Erian was interviewed and warned about self-fulfilling prophecies regarding coming recession
The GDP for 3r quarter was over 3%...how much was companies buying/selling prior to tariff imposition I didn't read...
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Poll says 100% for down. (Reply #2)
