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If he's up by *his* standards, then he can just enjoy his profits made up to that point.
Money markets and CDs were paying the best they have since 2009 until the latest Fed meeting. So the last few months until this past week was not a bad time to move to safe investments. I put about 20% into 1-year CDs, will re-evaluate next year.
The Fed thinks a recession is coming, that's why they're talking about lowering rates.
Without even watching the market or paying attention to the news, one can witness the pendulum swing between fear & greed about every 4 to 8 weeks just on C-D. A round of self-congratulatory back patting and "I told you guys..." typically ensues, but in reality *no one* knows what will happen next.
IF someone is not in a place emotionally or financially to withstand market volatility, then choosing not to be in the market for a period of time is one of the choices available. It's not the choice I or many others would make, but it is a choice that is valid for those in that situation.
What's interesting is the one-upmanship that is nearly constant. Unless your name is Bezos or Zuckerberg or any of the other billionaires you're not even close to real wealth, so go sit back on the bench with all the small potato investors.
I think his point is the market is 'basically' flat. Clearly, no one can accurately predict the future, but he does make some good points, particularly as it relates to the ballooning U. S. debt.
A 10% jump in less than 6 months is NOT "basically flat".
Having read that book I knew my brain was not giving me rational thoughts when I had to decide whether to buy in to the real estate business or not .
Every night it pounded me with everything that could go wrong and all the negatives. But I knew the parts of my brain doing this now that real money was on the line were known to be weighted towards not losing money more than making money ...not listening was the best thing I ever did
A 10% jump in less than 6 months is NOT "basically flat".
It's subjective. While I'm grateful for our recent gains, it merits mentioning, that US large-caps are at about the same level as their September 2018 high, which was about the same level as their January 2018 high. That's 18 months of flatness, if we connect the three or four peaks. The Russell 2000 crested at something like 1750. Today it's at 1550. To call that "basically flat" would be a euphemism. Most foreign markets are "basically flat" from 2015. Europe is basically flat from the year 2000, and is substantially below its 2007 highs.
We're wont to regard every successive market-high with mixture of euphoria and incredulity. But the market is supposed to be making record highs, one after another, forever. If it fails to do so, the whole premise of investment is falsified. A market that recovers to past highs in a sharp reversal from an equally sharp rout, is... basically flat.
Consequently, to have pulled out of the market, is perhaps defeatist and pessimistic, but it's not such a huge opportunity-cost. The real question is, what is the alternative? That is, if money's out of the market, where else would it go?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
the reality is the human brain hates losing money more than making money . ..
A 10% jump in less than 6 months is NOT "basically flat".
It was "basically flat", until the last couple of weeks jump. When your investment account is within a couple of hundred dollars of where it was 18 months ago, and mine were, I call that basically flat. I'm certainly happy to see the jump - but we'll see how long we keep it. It's been doing this, for, well, for 18 months.
It's subjective. While I'm grateful for our recent gains, it merits mentioning, that US large-caps are at about the same level as their September 2018 high, which was about the same level as their January 2018 high. That's 18 months of flatness, if we connect the three or four peaks. The Russell 2000 crested at something like 1750. Today it's at 1550. To call that "basically flat" would be a euphemism. Most foreign markets are "basically flat" from 2015. Europe is basically flat from the year 2000, and is substantially below its 2007 highs.
We're wont to regard every successive market-high with mixture of euphoria and incredulity. But the market is supposed to be making record highs, one after another, forever. If it fails to do so, the whole premise of investment is falsified. A market that recovers to past highs in a sharp reversal from an equally sharp rout, is... basically flat.
Yup.
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