Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I think market timing works so poorly because stocks forward price, what is being priced now is the speculation of what is going to happen so it's already being priced in. So when people say "hold off, things are going to get much worse" I doubt it will get lower because by that time the price is already in... yes, things may get worse but that does not mean the stock market will keep going down at that time in the future.
this downturn IS the repricing of future expectations and as we can see it's a worst case expectation... if/when the news isn't as bad markets could rally furiously.
That is just my take which is why waiting for 2200 or 2000 or even 1700 is just a gamble... I bought in at SPX -20%, bought some more at SPX -28% today...
Just 2 weeks ago people would jump up and down if you offered stocks at almost 30% off, today they don't want to touch them thinking they will go 50% down, well... I think that is just dangerous thinking.
Just my take on it, you have to DCA into it, the 50% off or even the 40% off may NEVER materialize and when the tide turns it will be so fast you will not be able to catch the discount.
I think there’s another 10%, vti about $105 has support level, the low in Dec 2018 was $120. So for vti, I think it’s in between this range,
I think market timing works so poorly because stocks forward price, what is being priced now is the speculation of what is going to happen so it's already being priced in. So when people say "hold off, things are going to get much worse" I doubt it will get lower because by that time the price is already in... yes, things may get worse but that does not mean the stock market will keep going down at that time in the future.
this downturn IS the repricing of future expectations and as we can see it's a worst case expectation... if/when the news isn't as bad markets could rally furiously.
That is just my take which is why waiting for 2200 or 2000 or even 1700 is just a gamble... I bought in at SPX -20%, bought some more at SPX -28% today...
Just 2 weeks ago people would jump up and down if you offered stocks at almost 30% off, today they don't want to touch them thinking they will go 50% down, well... I think that is just dangerous thinking.
Just my take on it, you have to DCA into it, the 50% off or even the 40% off may NEVER materialize and when the tide turns it will be so fast you will not be able to catch the discount.
Yes that's very real. You did good no matter how the markets do from here on out. I cannot comment on stocks forward price or how it's priced in because I don't know anything about that. Too new yet to know.
I don't see how we avoid getting pushed into a recession from this. There were already warnings signs before this. The Corona situation will need to get cleaned up in the next month or so.
Now wait a minute. I am going through your post history now. You were just busting Heart84's balls earlier today saying there were no warning signs before Covid and it was only Covid that caused the recession. Which one is it? Just trying to hold some accountability for someone that is talking out of both sides of their mouth. Has to be one or the other according to your own words.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
