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Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,907 posts, read 2,071,330 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
and told everyone else they were wrong , despite what facts , math and academic studies show
Neither you nor him are necessarily wrong. You're both quoting incomplete data taken out of context. Everyone's throwing out two sets of numbers: number of cases and mortality rate. I'm fairly certain neither of those at this time is correct.
We've had decades of influenza to model its spread and mortality rate. That somehow we expect correct data this early on is not realistic.
While, I'm neither in the panic camp, nor this is all nonsense camp, I do think we can infer certain information that is most likely correct without actually having hard numbers. I'd posit two things:
a.) There are many more cases that haven't been diagnosed, and will never be diagnosed. Therefore, unless the morgues are full to the brim of sudden unexplained deaths, chances are, the mortality rate is much lower.
b.) With the limited data we have, we know that people over 70 are many more times likely to face severe complications up to and including death. Shouldn't a more common sense approach be to isolate those people as much as possible rather than having a blanket one size fits all approach?
I, as a scientist, am uncomfortable with the way science is looked at these days. We're now looking at science in the same way we used to look at church and state. We're putting it on a pedestal for no other reason than we think it's superior compared to anything else without putting it into context.
So, please for all of you who think your argument is superior, one way or the other, because you have "data" and "science" on your side, just stop.
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,080 posts, read 7,533,882 times
Reputation: 9819
<> Warning, a trolling comment:
In the next few months, we could see tree harvest acceleration for TP pulp, which will reduce earth's ability to sequester CO2 and resulting in increase CO2 and higher probability for global warming. Alternative : Do what Market Bears do, strong sphincter muscles, rubbing against tree bark and a cleaning finish by scooting across the forest moss.
Last edited by leastprime; 03-15-2020 at 10:25 AM..
Does the average American only keep a couple days supply of toilet paper on hand? Having a hard time understanding the run on TP.
There's no rationale. This is monkey-see-monkey-do playing out in real time. We'll see the results when we visit family/friends and see the TP/pasta hoard and they will feel shame.
As for investing...there's people warning to "get out now". Countless people made that choice in '08 and regretted it later. Too many armchair analysts out there that just want you to act and validate their own opinion.
Stay the course if you feel it's best. Get out if you think it's best. Discuss with your advisor or those you trust.
Neither you nor him are necessarily wrong. You're both quoting incomplete data taken out of context. Everyone's throwing out two sets of numbers: number of cases and mortality rate. I'm fairly certain neither of those at this time is correct.
I’m pretty sure the comment you are replying to is geared towards retirement planning, back testing and equity allocation
Neither you nor him are necessarily wrong. You're both quoting incomplete data taken out of context. Everyone's throwing out two sets of numbers: number of cases and mortality rate. I'm fairly certain neither of those at this time is correct.
We've had decades of influenza to model its spread and mortality rate. That somehow we expect correct data this early on is not realistic.
While, I'm neither in the panic camp, nor this is all nonsense camp, I do think we can infer certain information that is most likely correct without actually having hard numbers. I'd posit two things:
a.) There are many more cases that haven't been diagnosed, and will never be diagnosed. Therefore, unless the morgues are full to the brim of sudden unexplained deaths, chances are, the mortality rate is much lower.
b.) With the limited data we have, we know that people over 70 are many more times likely to face severe complications up to and including death. Shouldn't a more common sense approach be to isolate those people as much as possible rather than having a blanket one size fits all approach?
I, as a scientist, am uncomfortable with the way science is looked at these days. We're now looking at science in the same way we used to look at church and state. We're putting it on a pedestal for no other reason than we think it's superior compared to anything else without putting it into context.
So, please for all of you who think your argument is superior, one way or the other, because you have "data" and "science" on your side, just stop.
Excellent comment. So here's my question to you. If you were running the show, would you have shut down all of these businesses and created our own infused recession? Or would you have done things differently?
Neither you nor him are necessarily wrong. You're both quoting incomplete data taken out of context. Everyone's throwing out two sets of numbers: number of cases and mortality rate. I'm fairly certain neither of those at this time is correct.
We've had decades of influenza to model its spread and mortality rate. That somehow we expect correct data this early on is not realistic.
While, I'm neither in the panic camp, nor this is all nonsense camp, I do think we can infer certain information that is most likely correct without actually having hard numbers. I'd posit two things:
a.) There are many more cases that haven't been diagnosed, and will never be diagnosed. Therefore, unless the morgues are full to the brim of sudden unexplained deaths, chances are, the mortality rate is much lower.
b.) With the limited data we have, we know that people over 70 are many more times likely to face severe complications up to and including death. Shouldn't a more common sense approach be to isolate those people as much as possible rather than having a blanket one size fits all approach?
I, as a scientist, am uncomfortable with the way science is looked at these days. We're now looking at science in the same way we used to look at church and state. We're putting it on a pedestal for no other reason than we think it's superior compared to anything else without putting it into context.
So, please for all of you who think your argument is superior, one way or the other, because you have "data" and "science" on your side, just stop.
Ok....as a scientist what’s the course?
I’m staying away from people as much as I can. I expect my work to close down pretty much everything as the pandemic moves on.
As for me and the market I’m waiting a bit to see what happens. I may buy some oil . Waiting on the automotive to sink a bit lower
Reports are we are now over 3000 cases and this number will only continue to grow, not just because of the spread of the virus but increased testing. The number of test run in the US is still staggeringly low
Also the people comparing it to the flu should refer to this admin’s head of infectious disease
Quote:
Fauci said the coronavirus is 10 times deadlier than the seasonal flu, which has a 0.1 percent mortality rate.
Edit to be accurate the reporting is we are north of 3100 cases from Friday’s guess by our newest forum member of less than 1700 cases
Last edited by Lowexpectations; 03-15-2020 at 01:15 PM..
Bull trap? Sounds a lot like bull crap no? The daily swings are really unprecedented so there really isn’t a need to try and label them
I've called it a bull trap and I believe it was. Bulls dove right in, and they may be very sorry.
Bulls believe that the market will quickly recover and then continue to rise, so they buy the dips and celebrate the arrival of end-of-day highs.
I am a bear, so I held my short positions. I will become a bull again some day, but I don't know when. I became a market bear on Mar 6th.
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