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Old 03-22-2020, 08:24 PM
 
Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,060 posts, read 7,493,946 times
Reputation: 9787

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambitious994 View Post
It's why this entire thing is making me think the proper investing approach is buy, hold, and watch.

- I don't think it's consistently jumping in and out of the markets everytime a bad news cycle comes or a mild recession period.

- And I don't think it's just slapping your money in the market and forgetting about it for 20 years
{...snip}
So if I'm right, I just avoided more losses and my recovery will be quicker!

But worse case, if I'm wrong, then I'll miss some "gains", but I'll be right back in the market for another 25 year time horizon anyway so I'll still get my recovery back and more growth! Either way I'm winning, so I don't know why The Bogleheads are so ticked off at me right now.
People are ticked off when someone/something starts questioning and demonstrating that the status quo can be alternatives.
Bogle was mocked in the 70's.
I was ridiculed and attacked for advocating GLWB annuities for those approaching or in retirement without benefit of a pension. I am attacked on CD for the same issues. Wear the badge of courage proudly.
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:28 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,202,565 times
Reputation: 29353
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
You don’t think we are going to have social unrest when people can’t access their money with a deathly virus overcrowding hospitals? Wake up.

Not as much as seeing their money evaporate daily. I think the majority will be relieved that they could quit worrying about that for a few months.
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:47 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,202,565 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
Those with money invested are likely to be the most sensible and controllable considering they want the bleeding to stop.

Did 2008 kill the investors? Nah. It just made them sad.

Did the 9/11 market freeze kill investors? Nah. It just kept them from having knee-jerk reactions and losing half their investment.
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Old 03-22-2020, 08:52 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,202,565 times
Reputation: 29353
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post

Freeze, don’t freeze, — we are on the Titanic.

Hold on.

Since it's your analogy, a freeze would be delaying the sinking several hours until the Cartagenia was on the scene with rescue support.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:09 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,202,565 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
Too bad our Cartagenia (the vaccine) couldn’t get here that quickly.

It might.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:11 PM
 
3,452 posts, read 4,924,464 times
Reputation: 6229
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
Too bad our Cartagenia (the vaccine) couldn’t get here that quickly.
Carpathia.

In the meantime, we do have lifeboats (drugs and convalescent plasma) being evaluated in clinical trials to bridge the gap to the vaccine. Regeneron is working on antibody therapy, which functions like a very short-term (1 month) vaccine, which should be ready in late summer.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:15 PM
 
23,177 posts, read 12,202,565 times
Reputation: 29353
Quote:
Originally Posted by arctic_gardener View Post
Carpathia.

In the meantime, we do have lifeboats (drugs and convalescent plasma) being evaluated in clinical trials to bridge the gap to the vaccine. Regeneron is working on antibody therapy, which functions like a very short-term (1 month) vaccine, which should be ready in late summer.

Corrrection welcomed.


A vaccine could be ready by mid-summer. Not saying it WILL but that it COULD. Don't buy the 12-18 month rubbish they are telling you.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:22 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,557 posts, read 17,256,908 times
Reputation: 37268
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timingiseverything View Post
“Signal for the bottom is when people are so demoralized that they can no longer bring themselves to visit these forums, and most of the final posts from departing members are bitter, profane, and angry diatribes cursing "Bogleheads" for encouraging us to "Stay the Course". We are getting there, at least anger wise.”

This where we are.

Freeze, don’t freeze, — we are on the Titanic.

Hold on.
Titanic? ..... No, I don't think so. She went down and stayed down.
Every investor knows he has options and riding the thing down and back up is only one option. And it's probably a fairly good option.
You could go to cash.
You could short the market and make money as it falls.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:27 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,557 posts, read 17,256,908 times
Reputation: 37268
Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
.................
A vaccine could be ready by mid-summer. Not saying it WILL but that it COULD. Don't buy the 12-18 month rubbish they are telling you.
I think you're right.
There is billions of dollars to be made, and the fact that so much research has already been done on other viruses works in our favor. There are smart, experienced people working in well equipped laboratories all over the world. They arrive at a solution. I don't hear the cavalry bugle yet, but it'll come.


When the proper degree of safety is ascertained, they'll ship it out.
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Old 03-22-2020, 09:27 PM
 
545 posts, read 192,451 times
Reputation: 464
Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Corrrection welcomed.


A vaccine could be ready by mid-summer. Not saying it WILL but that it COULD. Don't buy the 12-18 month rubbish they are telling you.
There's no vaccine coming this year.
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