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10k in the us stock market is 48,021. The same in gold is 58,188 ..so the us stock market was up almost 5x with dividends, gold almost 6x.
Portfolio visualizer
There are always times we can find one asset beat another …the problem is that the only meaningful time is the one we are invested in and with how much ….,
The greatest bull in history when for 17 years markets averaged 13.47% from 1987 to 2003 may not have meant much since the decades leading in were some pretty nasty ones for stocks so I had little to compound on compared to today.
My heavy weight years are 2003 to present ….that is when I finally started to have a meaningful amount accumulated working for me .
The 1980s and 1990s didn’t mean much to me
Last edited by mathjak107; 08-12-2021 at 04:41 AM..
' the gold bugs have come up with every story under the sun as to why gold should go up, and it doesn't,” Parets told Yahoo Finance Live. “In fact, over the last year, you’d be hard pressed to find a worse investment over the last year [than] gold.” '
[...]
' “I mean, literally, you could have bought anything and it would have made money but not gold, you know, so it just really is the worst of the bunch,” Parets added. “And even in commodities, literally every commodity in the world is going up, except for gold.” '
[...]
' “It's really a supply and demand game,” Parets said. “Some people like to have conspiracy theories about gold and [it being an] inflation hedge, and [they’re all just] stories. And so you can listen to those stories, or you can focus on the only thing that's actually ever going to pay anyone, and that's the price of gold,” he said. '
I wonder if BitCoin is soaking up some of the demand for gold.
Pretty amazing that SPY has more than quadrupled in the last 10 years.
The us stock market was up only 5 times what you started with from 2000 to July 2021 so showing it quadrupled the last 10 really is not a lot of growth over 20 years.
Gold goes with stocks , not instead of stocks …gold and stocks have beaten bonds and stocks over most time frames .
100% equities is usually going to be the lead horse if one is 100% equities…but for those who don’t want 100% equities , gold and stocks has beaten cash and stocks and bonds and stocks more often than not over the last 20 years .
Prior to the last 20 years gold was not a main stream investment …it really wasn’t until the gold etfs that gold became popular like other asset classes.
I think Gld came in 2003 or 2004..
So gold is not best used as a stand alone investment …it is best used rebalancing in down markets like bonds would.
Gold should be bought with the budget allocated to bonds or cash , not out of the stock budget …
The comparison should not be gold or stocks , it SHOULD BE BONDS AND OR CASH.
Would you compare a total bond fund to 100% equities? Of Course not
Last edited by mathjak107; 08-12-2021 at 04:51 AM..
Meanwhile, the more sophisticated gold-bugs seem to be saying, that gold should be regarded as a trading-instrument, and not a buy-and-hold investment. That is, one evaluates one's portfolio at regular intervals - say annually - and sells gold, if it has appreciated (relative to other portions of the portfolio), or buys gold, if it has depreciated.
People should do what they think is right, of course, everyone has to live with the results of their choices. But balancing gold and SPY as above for the past 10 years would leave someone a lot poorer today than just buying SPY and holding it.
People should do what they think is right, of course, everyone has to live with the results of their choices. But balancing gold and SPY as above for the past 10 years would leave someone a lot poorer today than just buying SPY and holding it.
but it would have left you richer buying gold vs spy the last 20 years for what its worth .
but in my opinion gold is an asset that goes with stocks when someone does not WANT 100% equities so which leads the pack and when is a moot point .
a more realistic comparison is bonds vs gold vs cash instruments coupled with stocks.
it should never be stocks or gold the same as it should never be an annuity or your own investing .if anything the annuity should just be part of the bond side budget.
i never recommend any variable annuity products so it should never be a situation where the equities are in the annuity .
Last edited by mathjak107; 08-12-2021 at 06:53 AM..
It's a little early to update this thread, but with inflation at 40 year highs, which is when gold is supposed to shine, I thought it was a good time to check in and see if gold is performing as expected (i.e., a hedge against inflation).
11/08/2011 $1799.20 / oz (SPY 104.15)
11/25/2020 $1813.15 / oz (SPY 353.74)
08/11/2021 $1750.96 / oz (SPY 437.56)
07/05/2022 $1778.30 / oz (SPY 381.96)
It's been a tough year for SPY no doubt, but over the past eleven years holding SPY is still quite a bit better than gold.
Any theories on why gold is basically unchanged while inflation is >8%? Anyone who believes gold is a hedge against inflation starting to change their mind?
Gold significantly rose in value in the 70's (when the gold standard was lifted in the US) and from 2001-2012. But every other period has been underwhelming.
If you bought in 1980, you saw zero growth for 20 years. If you bought gold from 2012 till now, there's not much growth in the past 10 years either.
Gold is a competitor to the dollar . It is pretty reliable in its moves against the dollar .
As an example gold is up 68% in India since 2020 …it is the strong dollar that undermines golds moves . So gold won’t do much when the dollar is strong
No different then foreign stocks can be up overseas but down in dollar terms
But the last 20 years gold has become a main stream asset and is now in quite a few portfolios.
GOLD HAS BEATEN STOCKS THE LAST 20 YEARS .. you can confirm that in portfolio visualizer and gold is not even supposed to be a competitor to stocks .
One other thing you are missing is that volatile assets like gold are very different standing in isolation then functioning in a portfolio where spikes are rebalanced and used to buy other assets instead of spiking in isolation and just falling back accomplishing nothing .
By the way , over most time frame equities and gold in a 50/50 has beaten equities and bonds .
The outcomes are totally different in portfolios with gold and the harvesting of golds spikes are an important part.
Generally when equities zig gold zags more often than not and that buys more equities when rebalanced . That effect is not seen when you look at gold in isolation.
gold is up 3.46% over the last one year , a total market fund is down 15% over the one year so it still is true about holding the line when equities fall.
In a portfolio when rebalance bands are hit gold will likely be buying more equities…
So I think you Need a better education on gold’s functionality in Portfolios vs sitting static by itself like a rock .
Last edited by mathjak107; 01-13-2023 at 10:00 AM..
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