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It looks like sub $300 is in the cards for HD this week. I’ll be looking to add some on Friday if it gets there.
I may add some myself. Several stocks on my watch list are getting closer to the buy zone. I’m slowly building positions in DPZ, TROW and WSM, may add some HD, and BX, BAM, CTAS and TXN are all approaching the buy zone.
I may add some myself. Several stocks on my watch list are getting closer to the buy zone. I’m slowly building positions in DPZ, TROW and WSM, may add some HD, and BX, BAM, CTAS and TXN are all approaching the buy zone.
Going to be plenty of sales tomorrow and later this week based on the looks of the futures market
Added more DPZ, TROW and WSM. Two of those are up today but I'm still building and averaging down a little at a time. Will add HD if it gets under $300, looking at several others and may start BX at $110 or under.
Added more DPZ, TROW and WSM. Two of those are up today but I'm still building and averaging down a little at a time. Will add HD if it gets under $300, looking at several others and may start BX at $110 or under.
HD was under $300 for a brief moment this morning. Three day rule, wait until tomorrow to buy…
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the market was already in a tech bubble as far back as 2019, perhaps even earlier. Covid temporarily corrected it but then helicopter money from the government quickly rescued the market. Feels like we’re reverting back to “normal” levels this year.
IMO...
Some parts of the tech market got too puffed up during '20-'21, but these have already crashed and burned pretty hard. Square (Block), Paypal, and Docusign are down 65%-70% from their high marks. Zoom is down nearly 80%. Just to give a few examples.
However, most of the giant companies like Microsoft haven't been in bubble territory. There's not a crisp definition of what is a bubble. To me it means such a high valuation that an investor will not see a positive real (after inflation) return for 15-20 years or longer. For someone in their 50s or older this sort of investment could be a permanent loss. There were plenty of these stocks in 1999, even among the large cap market leaders of the day like Cisco Systems and Intel.
Today Microsoft trades at about 30x earnings. We can certainly quibble over whether it should be 25x, 30x, etc, but it's not priced 2-3 times what it's worth, or worse, as we saw with many stocks in 1999. It's actually up a little bit today as I write this.
Some parts of the tech market got too puffed up during '20-'21, but these have already crashed and burned pretty hard. Square (Block), Paypal, and Docusign are down 65%-70% from their high marks. Zoom is down nearly 80%. Just to give a few examples.
However, most of the giant companies like Microsoft haven't been in bubble territory. There's not a crisp definition of what is a bubble. To me it means such a high price that an investor will not see a positive real (after inflation) return for 15-20 years or longer. There were plenty of these in 1999, even among the large cap market leaders of the day like Cisco Systems and Intel.
Today Microsoft trades at about 30x earnings. We can certainly quibble over whether it should be 25x, 30x, etc, but it's not priced 2-3 times what it's worth, or worse, as we saw with many stocks in 1999. It's actually up a little bit today as I write this.
AAPL, for example, is up 100% since precovid levels. MSFT isn’t far behind. ZM, SQ, etc are back to precovid levels and in many cases back to 2018 levels despite growing profits and revenue faster than AAPL and MSFT over that time.
So either AAPL and MSFT are still inflated or ZM, SQ, etc are oversold.
Feels like most tech stocks will return to their precovid price at some point this year. Many have already. With this in mind, would it be better to wait for sub $200 on MSFT?
You'll be waiting a while. For all the talk of a tech bubble, it's largely people looking and speculating for the "next" big tech company. The established juggernauts like MSFT and GOOGL have bottom lines and quarterly reports/forecasts that justify their costs. They'll ebb and flow with sentiments, but I don't see them bottoming out like some of the more speculative plays will.
You'll be waiting a while. For all the talk of a tech bubble, it's largely people looking and speculating for the "next" big tech company. The established juggernauts like MSFT and GOOGL have bottom lines and quarterly reports/forecasts that justify their costs. They'll ebb and flow with sentiments, but I don't see them bottoming out like some of the more speculative plays will.
We’ll see. Even the big boys get hit during a hard drawdown.
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