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Picked up some E today. It's Italy's oil major so it's not a bedrock of stability, and very likely to have political horrors come out from time to time... It doesn't hold a candle in terms of efficiency to US oil majors, but it does make money.
Anyway, book value is $52B vs market cap of $40B at the moment. Might be a moderate term hold as opposed to an ever hold.
Picked up some E today. It's Italy's oil major so it's not a bedrock of stability, and very likely to have political horrors come out from time to time... It doesn't hold a candle in terms of efficiency to US oil majors, but it does make money.
Anyway, book value is $52B vs market cap of $40B at the moment. Might be a moderate term hold as opposed to an ever hold.
Not a bad pick. The thing that bothers me about holding it long term is not so much that it's Italian per se and subject to the prevailing political winds in Italy, but that the government itself is the largest shareholder which may result in less than optimal allocations of resources if jobs in Italy are at stake. Nonetheless, it does seem to be trading at less than fair value, especially given that it is already down almost 20% YTD, so it does seem like a good time to open a position or add some more.
As far as European oil companies are concerned, I've owned TTE and EQNR for some time, especially TTE. I usually add more when it drops into the 45 range and sell some when it approaches 60. It's worked out well for me over the years.
Not a bad pick. The thing that bothers me about holding it long term is not so much that it's Italian per se and subject to the prevailing political winds in Italy, but that the government itself is the largest shareholder which may result in less than optimal allocations of resources if jobs in Italy are at stake. Nonetheless, it does seem to be trading at less than fair value, especially given that it is already down almost 20% YTD, so it does seem like a good time to open a position or add some more.
As far as European oil companies are concerned, I've owned TTE and EQNR for some time, especially TTE. I usually add more when it drops into the 45 range and sell some when it approaches 60. It's worked out well for me over the years.
I haven't owned Total in a very long time. There was a time where I had a general aversion to French companies, but I think the latest flirt with socialism has passed. Total is definitely a solid major.
EQNR is a new one for me. Thanks for introducing. Their numbers look great. It looks like a well run company. Ahh....it's the old Statoil. Maybe 15 years ago or so....whenever fracking first got big. We sold a lot of equipment to Statoil. All I'll say is that it was really difficult to get our bills to post to their system. Really difficult. I'm sure it's been worked out since then. The funny thing is, once you know numbers are unlikely to be correct....it actully tends to make them the better buy. They'll manufacture a happy ending until they just can't anymore, and then it's a spectacular crash. That's just in general though. Not necessarily for this company. Anyway, the numbers look really good, but it also looks priced in.
I also didn't realize E was Italian government controlled. That would explain the discount.
In general, to play oil prices, I almost prefer derivatives in chemicals. That likely hasn't been a winning strategy to date, but I always get more comfortable the closer we get to manufacturing. DOW is my main albeit I have none at the moment. I have FMC now due to lithium exposure. WLK is solid if you think construction will do well (I don't). When oil is weak I've tried the whole buy airlines thing, but I've not actually seen that play out. Such a short/small run-up it's easy to miss and can dissipate on anything. (when oil crashes....generally it's due to recession.)
While I know this is the long term thread, I think with cyclicals it really makes sense to still rotate.
Hmmm....looking like I might be dead wrong on INTC.
AMD has been taking business share from Intel for quite some time now, and this is why I've been adding to my position despite macro-headwinds in the market. I've also increased my portfolio allocation for Nvidia. They're launching a CPU next year focused on data centers, and I think this will add to Intel's short-term heartburn. Pat Gelsinger will right the ship, but it's going to take a few years at a minimum.
AMD has been taking business share from Intel for quite some time now, and this is why I've been adding to my position despite macro-headwinds in the market. I've also increased my portfolio allocation for Nvidia. They're launching a CPU next year focused on data centers, and I think this will add to Intel's short-term heartburn. Pat Gelsinger will right the ship, but it's going to take a few years at a minimum.
I don't have much faith in Gelsinger's ability to turn this ship around. Intel is a classic value trap and I wouldn't touch it. Any turn around there will take years at best, and it's bound to get worse before it gets better. IF it gets better. Just my .02.
I don't have much faith in Gelsinger's ability to turn this ship around. Intel is a classic value trap and I wouldn't touch it. Any turn around there will take years at best, and it's bound to get worse before it gets better. IF it gets better. Just my .02.
Yes, perhaps I'm a bit too sanguine lol! There's a reason I've been an investor in AMD and NVDA for several years, so the old adage actions speak louder than words rings true for me. But I've also been a long-term investor in MSFT and the Ballmer years of stock doldrums. Satya has been amazing, and perhaps Pat G will be able to do the same. I agree this will take time, and yes, IF it happens at all is a fair assessment on your part!
Yes, perhaps I'm a bit too sanguine lol! There's a reason I've been an investor in AMD and NVDA for several years, so the old adage actions speak louder than words rings true for me. But I've also been a long-term investor in MSFT and the Ballmer years of stock doldrums. Satya has been amazing, and perhaps Pat G will be able to do the same. I agree this will take time, and yes, IF it happens at all is a fair assessment on your part!
I hear you on that. All I can do to add to that is to repeat a famous quote on the subject:
"When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."
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