so November inflation of 6.8% aint bad?????? (trading, stock, buying, interest)

[mojo101]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

Huh ? The 30 year treasuries are the most popular refuge when markets plunge .

2008 saw them soar over 25%.

Someone needs a lesson on asset classes if you think a flight to safety does not include treasury bonds or gold at times

I mean now!
would you buy 30 years T bonds today,when they just reported producer price index,>and you know 2 rate hikes are coming?

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by mojo101

I mean now!
would you buy 30 years T bonds today,when they just reported producer price index,>and you know 2 rate hikes are coming?

Yes, if I was looking to protect my portfolio from a market sell off , a recession where we slow down or depression….

Right now I am weighted for inflation but there are portfolios that don’t guess what is next and they own long term treasuries regardless .

Even vanguard Wellesley is holding about 20% of the bond side in long term treasuries.

They can have very powerful motives in the blink of an eye when investors think other assets are headed down.

So far every time the fed raised short term rates 1% or more in a year , except 1984 , longer term bonds went up in value .

Short term rate increases can have the opposite effect on longer term bonds as those increases are Looked at as squelching inflation.

Nothing is a guarantee, as it depends on bond investor psychology but never think because short term rates rise that longer term bonds fall in value .

That has not been true in most cases.

Just look at those nice gains in intermediate term treasuries when we had big rate increases that year


All except 1994

[mathjak107]

Interesting that Cathie woods thinks the real pressure is not going to be inflation but she says deflationary pressures are going to be worse .

That is the perfect environment for long term bonds if she is correct ….she thinks most have this inflation thing wrong and are being faked out.

Wages will level out , supply chains will open up and inflationary pressures will weaken.

So know one knows which way things will play out ….so far it appears the bond market is seeing the same thing with long term rates at just 1.81%


https://seekingalpha.com/news/378007...mp-in-39-years

[AnnaGWS]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

Interesting that Cathie woods thinks the real pressure is not going to be inflation but she says deflationary pressures are going to be worse .

That is the perfect environment for long term bonds if she is correct ….she thinks most have this inflation thing wrong and are being faked out.

Wages will level out , supply chains will open up and inflationary pressures will weaken.

So know one knows which way things will play out ….so far it appears the bond market is seeing the same thing with long term rates at just 1.81%


https://seekingalpha.com/news/378007...mp-in-39-years

Cathie Wood is Heart84?

[mojo101]

Wages will level out , supply chains will open up and inflationary pressures will weaken.
everyone knows that,what is meant by wages will level out?
that we dont have to keep upping the hourly rate every month from 12.13.14.15.16.17.18 and 19 /hour,does it mean those who are hired at $19/hour keep $ 19?
Do you think your local dentist would roll back a visit from $120 to $95?/
your landlord will roll back your rent from $1800 to $1000?

[mojo101]

after decades of printing money worldwide,we dont need to raise rate to borrow,there is plenty out there,cash is trash,so is gold and everything else.

[mathjak107]

Salary’s to attract workers , at least in these parts are insane on all levels ..so you can bet your bottom dollar future raises will be few and small ..eventually salaries will work their way back to what the jobs typically were worth as increases will be smaller or not at all

I mean i am retired and Westinghouse offered me a job and told me I can write my own pay check within reason …that is just nuts

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by AnnaGWS

Cathie Wood is Heart84?

Good one

[lenora]

Originally Posted by T Block

Is that economist correct about the March 2022 end of the FRB bond-buying to not control inflation ?

I''m sorry. I couldn't understand your question as written. "... to not control inflation". ?

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by mojo101

I mean now!
would you buy 30 years T bonds today,when they just reported producer price index,>and you know 2 rate hikes are coming?

So far TLT has been bouncing back up with each dip in the stock market despite the feds plan ….

So a flight to safety to gold and or long bonds can still offset a lot of equity market damage.

Tilt is now up almost 4% in a month . Vti is now down about 5% in a month

So never think you can predict what is next …the obvious rarely plays out as things not even on the radar yet change the course of what we think is inevitable.

In the end long term bonds are driven by fear ,greed and perception, not so much what the fed does since the worlds bond investors dominate the bond market over the longer term