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Most indices return to previous lows coming off a peak before moving higher. That would indicate a move to between 3500 and 3600 before moving higher. This could be a quick and brief move possibly on a day of capitulation. That would be much preferred in my opinion to a slow, continued move down.
Not really. The retiree age cohort is the wealthiest of all age cohorts, and have had a lifetime to accumulate sufficient assets to weather any storm.
I’m a retiree of less than 2 years. I’ve not taken any withdrawals from my portfolio but I have less now in there than I did just before I retired. Just because people “have had a lifetime”, that doesn’t mean that they were able to sock it away for all of that time. I sure wasn’t.
we had excellent market years since retiring in 2015 so we are still higher today despite 8 years of spending and a sucky two years
Timing is everything. That sucky two years has been my retirement pretty much. If I did not have a pension to rely on, I would have gone back to work by now.
that is why safe withdrawal rates are based on the worst outcomes ever seen .
if we simply based things on average outcomes we could draw more than 50% more
it really does not have all that much to do with timing .
those who retired right in to 2008 are doing fine today if they didn’t exhibit poor investor behavior.
how your retirement goes is based more on your draw rate , allocation and sequence of returns then negative or positive years , since even 4% inflation adjusted will last 30 years with at least 35-40% stocks with a mere 2% real return the first 15 years as an average
those who retired right in to 2008 are doing fine today if they didn’t exhibit poor investor behavior.
Very true. I retired in 2008. I didn't do stupid things. I'm fine.
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