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Over the past 13 years had I gone to Vegas and put $100 on black I have a near 50% chance of losing $100.
Find me one time in the last 13 years where if I bought Bitcoin I would have lost it all 50% of the time?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
In the financial world the reality is your starting value is each days balance .
That is the money you are committing to either the same investment or a different one , not what you once started with , whether it’s a year or 30 years ago .
A lot of people bought bitcoin when it was $60,000. They have lost $45,000. They might make it up by putting it on black, or they may lose another $15,000.
It is important to remember the losers as well as the winners. Using the Vegas analogy, if you doubled your money on your initial $100 betting on black, you need to remember that 11 other people each put $10 on red and lost.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky because it has no fundamental value. We value real estate because you can live or work on a piece of land. I can use a building.
We value metals because they are rare, and they can be used for ornamental or industrial reasons.
We value stock, because they represent a portion of a company, and the stock market is regulated and information exists to value companies.
We value dollars and euros because stable governments use them and they have utility in every aspect of our lives.
Cryptocurrencies have none of this inherent value. It does not represent value in something else, and nobody guarantees it. It is purely speculative, and my guess is that in 20 years, it will be an oddity of the past like beanie babies.
A lot of people bought bitcoin when it was $60,000. They have lost $45,000
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And I for one have no sympathy. Do your research including reading boards like this one, where there are a lot of smart people. Crypto does nothing. It's a 'currency' that takes 15 or 20 minutes to transact, when you can use a credit card and be done in 15 seconds. It is unsafe, prone to hacks and theft, loss of passwords, and it is uninsured. One of the best investors ever (Buffett) called it rat poison. People who thought they were smarter than Buffett.... lost.
A lot of people bought bitcoin when it was $60,000. They have lost $45,000. They might make it up by putting it on black, or they may lose another $15,000.
It is important to remember the losers as well as the winners. Using the Vegas analogy, if you doubled your money on your initial $100 betting on black, you need to remember that 11 other people each put $10 on red and lost.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile and extremely risky because it has no fundamental value. We value real estate because you can live or work on a piece of land. I can use a building.
We value metals because they are rare, and they can be used for ornamental or industrial reasons.
We value stock, because they represent a portion of a company, and the stock market is regulated and information exists to value companies.
We value dollars and euros because stable governments use them and they have utility in every aspect of our lives.
Cryptocurrencies have none of this inherent value. It does not represent value in something else, and nobody guarantees it. It is purely speculative, and my guess is that in 20 years, it will be an oddity of the past like beanie babies.
However in investing everyone can win or every one can lose ..there is not a winner for every loser .
I can sell something to you at a profit , you can sell it to the next guy at a profit and so on and so on for as long as the investment goes up unlike vegas.
Now a Harvard PHD said central banks should buy Bitcoins as a hedge against sanctions by other countries.
Now,if Russia had bought 400 billions of the reserve now withheld in other countries central banks in Bitcoins,the war could last forever,
And Iran has money locked up in US bank for years,China wants to invade Taiwan,it sure wont be buying our T bills,N Korea would not either,so would other countries if they see us continue to spend and print money like drunken sailors.
Gold takes up too much space,but better than physical silver.
Minerals would be nice if you could use it,but you need to store it somewhere.
The British pounds used to worth more,now look at it.
Who knows where the US dollar would be in another 25 years,flip a coin
A lot of people bought bitcoin when it was $60,000. They have lost $45,000
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And I for one have no sympathy. Do your research including reading boards like this one, where there are a lot of smart people. Crypto does nothing. It's a 'currency' that takes 15 or 20 minutes to transact, when you can use a credit card and be done in 15 seconds. It is unsafe, prone to hacks and theft, loss of passwords, and it is uninsured. One of the best investors ever (Buffett) called it rat poison. People who thought they were smarter than Buffett.... lost.
Some have sold when it reached $40-60K,and never have to hold a 9--5 job,they are in their 30s and 40s.
Loss of password is like losing your wallet full of cash,cant blame others.
Cash can be worthless too,like the Czar cash,East German cash,Chiang Kai Shak cash.
That's the part that baffles me the most. Why not just apply this blockchain stuff, and the essence of cryptographic security, to good old US Dollars and Euros and Yen? I mean, if the genius of "crypto" is the computer-science, OK, why not just avail ourselves of the computer science, while retaining the core of traditional currencies and finances?
Because publicly limiting the supply and accurately measuring the amount of "currency" would put politicians out of business. It would show the population just how screwed up govt. and the economy really is and how few businesses could support themselves in a truly free market. The cost of necessities would skyrocket and govt. would skim whatever they wanted off the top. There is something like 200 Trillion in govt. unfunded liabilities already. They are pushing CBDC's instead. They want to retain control. They need to maintain confidence in their fiat currencies or the citizenry will show up on their doorstep with pitchforks and axes.
There are political objectives that can not be achieved unless the current fiat regimes remain in power.
Some have sold when it reached $40-60K,and never have to hold a 9--5 job,they are in their 30s and 40s.
Loss of password is like losing your wallet full of cash,cant blame others.
Cash can be worthless too,like the Czar cash,East German cash,Chiang Kai Shak cash.
Some made money in penny stocks too …the majority dont….the fact is when a fund or speculation makes to mass level it’s after it has seen its best days .
Even ark has most of its shareholders at a loss as they bought after ark had a great run up when few heard of them.
For every 100 who buy penny stocks over 90% lose money too .
So it is important to keep speculative assets as just that ….they shouldn’t be core parts of a portfolio…..Paul tudor jones now admits that he was premature at recommending a 5% stake in bitcoin and cut his holdings way down to a minuscule holding.
It does not get a seat yet at the portfolio table.. it is a speculative play and should be outside the confines of one’s core portfolio is the way I view it.
It shouldn’t be money you need to grow , but rather money you can afford to lose without hurting your core growth.
If it hits a home run , great but it shouldn’t be counted on as one’s primary growth vehicle.
To bad so many youngins made this mistake
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-24-2022 at 07:56 AM..
However in investing everyone can win or every one can lose ..there is not a winner for every loser .
I can sell something to you at a profit , you can sell it to the next guy at a profit and so on and so on for as long as the investment goes up unlike vegas.
I was working with the Vegas analogy, where there are losers for every winner. Even the house can be a loser in the short term, although they do keep their thumb on the scale to make sure it pays out for them in the long term, at the cost of every other player.
You pose a hypothetical investment scenario where everybody is a winner or loser. That scenario does not exist in reality. ALL stocks go up and down, so there are winners and losers every day.
I object to having cryptocurrency being likened to stock or bond investing though. Stocks and bonds have fundamental value of some type. Simplistically, they represent ownership in a company or of a debt. Cryptocurrency represents neither. It represents nothing, and has value because people think it will continue to grow in value. There is literally no other reason to own it.
Maybe I am wrong in the long term, but I doubt it. It just does not have the fundamental value to sustain it.
Bitcoin was touted as a hedge to preserve wealth. It has dropped $45k in value at a time when 1/3 of all currency in existence was printed and inflation is running at 40 year highs. It should have gone up - not down. Not as advertised and hopefully that is a wake up call to those who bought the hype.
Expect the profiteers to continue the game as long as they can. Would not surprise me in the least to see a huge spike before an eventual fall due to short squeeze / manipulation. Take a bite of this wonderful apple my dear...
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