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Short Yen, Brazilian Real, and US treasuries for the medium term (to 3 years)
Took a small short position against Brazil and Mexico with more modest objectives. Both markets are far ahead of themselves and priced as if they were more efficient and well functioning economies. Shorting using ETFs, so the risk is not terribly huge
Long ISBU
Long on a bunch of other stuff.
Will add to cash in the near term and add to short positions if the markets seem to be heading down.
I see the markets giving up a reasonable chunk of 2009 gains. If so, I will get ready to add to long positions. If not, then the build up of cash will be used to paydown mortgages.
S.
P.S. Hold me to task 1, 2, and 3 years from now on...with the first two as my favorites
1. Sold Short BZF Current price 26.55 (Shorting the Brazilian Real)
2. Long YCS, Current price 20.40 (Shorting Japanese Yen)
3. Long TBT Current price 49.37 (Shorting longer-end US Treasuries)
4. Long GLL Current Price 9.68 (shorting Gold)
Downside risk should be next to nil. Let's see if I can squeeze out a few bucks...
Last edited by Sandpointian; 01-12-2010 at 11:27 AM..
Schwab is a bit more at 12.95, lower if you trade more, but I like the service and accessibility.
Schwab will be 8.95 (regardless of balance and number of trades) on Jan. 19... I am NOT buying anything until then... stocks got hit HARD today... I hate it when the news said that there was a "small" drop... it was HUGE (for me anyways)...
I should've had more exposure in 2009 to inflation-hedges like miners (I wanted BHP) , but I missed that boat long ago, and it's too expensive now, IMO.
IBM gets most of its revenue from overseas, so that's a bit of a non-U.S. play. It is also a play on technology services, which I feel very optimistic about, and has an excellent portfolio of patents. Generally speaking I am impressed with the A) diversity of customers and industries B) usefulness C) barrier to entry, regarding their products and services. Not to mention, their brand is well-known and respected.
Wal-Mart is just ultra-efficient, a retailer I think will gain marketshare as Americans shift toward frugal spending patterns. I respect the way they do business.
Fluor is a government engineering contractor - they build large capital projects for the energy industry and the government. I figure that they would benefit from a long-term rise in oil, which makes their products more economically viable. They also can benefit from big government spending. This is my most egregious inflation hedge.
I don't see any of these taking off, but I feel like they're at reasonable prices, and I feel relatively safe with them in my portfolio.
I really like a LONG for the US dollar in the first part of the year, could last longer but time will tell. Whether you choose to long USD by shorting gold, or going short EUR/USD, long USD/AUD, or long USD/JPY I think they are all valid trades. The market is due for a correction and when it does the USD will do very well, gold will drop.
Personally I'm in and out of EUR/USD and AUD/USD for long positions on the USD in both instances. Previously we have seen an inverse relationship between the dollar's performance and the market performance but that relationship has started to meander a bit...which should be a bullish sign for the dollar. There is a lot of bad news that could come from EUR between Greece and then Italy and the AUD has pushed too high and will do very poorly if there is a selloff in gold or oil. We are also seeing the dollar's value hold even on some market up days which is another bullish sign for the dollar imo.
Short Yen, Brazilian Real, and US treasuries for the medium term (to 3 years)
Took a small short position against Brazil and Mexico with more modest objectives. Both markets are far ahead of themselves and priced as if they were more efficient and well functioning economies. Shorting using ETFs, so the risk is not terribly huge
Long ISBU
Long on a bunch of other stuff.
Will add to cash in the near term and add to short positions if the markets seem to be heading down.
I see the markets giving up a reasonable chunk of 2009 gains. If so, I will get ready to add to long positions. If not, then the build up of cash will be used to paydown mortgages.
S.
P.S. Hold me to task 1, 2, and 3 years from now on...with the first two as my favorites
1. Sold Short BZF Current price 26.55 (Shorting the Brazilian Real)
2. Long YCS, Current price 20.40 (Shorting Japanese Yen)
3. Long TBT Current price 49.37 (Shorting longer-end US Treasuries)
4. Long GLL Current Price 9.68 (shorting Gold)
Downside risk should be next to nil. Let's see if I can squeeze out a few bucks...
i have a lot of the same positions as u except for GLL and u might as well add UUP(long dollar)
i have a lot of the same positions as u except for GLL and u might as well add UUP(long dollar)
We have a well diversified portfolio of ETFs, Mutuals and Stocks.
Some cleaning is needed, however a decent structure is in place.
On top of this, when the market gets to positions we feel are overbought or oversold, we consider shorting or adding more aggressively, respectively. I consider this a layered approach to investing. I trade this layer for swings that might last anywhere from 3 mos to 3 years. Doing so, I don't touch the underlying positions, except to rebalance.
This means that the trading layer is doing to be small (right now about 5% of financial net wealth). So I take $50K in positions, then a return over 3 years of $10K-$25K is sought.
I added UUP soon after I posted. I had no chance to short the Swiss Franc, so I went with UUP as a proxy. I also added to positions in YCS. I added small positions in QID, SMK, and BZQ even though I have ETFs on Latin America. Finally, I bought more EWJ as a long term play
SO if the market corrects, my trading layer adds value as a hedge.
Can I do better? Sure. But I do not want to spend any more than a few moments a week on this. Going short in a big way is very intense and going long leaves you vulnerable to big, avoidable losses.
I wish there was a better play for the 10 year Treasury...TBT was too long a substitute. Oh well...it will be a decent long run play as Obamanomics continues to drive more dark clouds into the future.
S.
Last edited by Sandpointian; 01-21-2010 at 03:27 AM..
We have a well diversified portfolio of ETFs, Mutuals and Stocks.
Some cleaning is needed, however a decent structure is in place.
On top of this, when the market gets to positions we feel are overbought or oversold, we consider shorting or adding more aggressively, respectively. I consider this a layered approach to investing. I trade this layer for swings that might last anywhere from 3 mos to 3 years. Doing so, I don't touch the underlying positions, except to rebalance.
This means that the trading layer is doing to be small (right now about 5% of financial net wealth). So I take $50K in positions, then a return over 3 years of $10K-$25K is sought.
I added UUP soon after I posted. I had no chance to short the Swiss Franc, so I went with UUP as a proxy. I also added to positions in YCS. I added small positions in QID, SMK, and BZQ even though I have ETFs on Latin America. Finally, I bought more EWJ as a long term play
SO if the market corrects, my trading layer adds value as a hedge.
Can I do better? Sure. But I do not want to spend any more than a few moments a week on this. Going short in a big way is very intense and going long leaves you vulnerable to big, avoidable losses.
I wish there was a better play for the 10 year Treasury...TBT was too long a substitute. Oh well...it will be a decent long run play as Obamanomics continues to drive more dark clouds into the future.
S.
Obanomics/Bernanke but without them u know we would of faced disaster.though thanks to them we see a really bad future for our grandchildren.
As long as they are in office, don't you think we should see higher prices in stocks? Im pretty sure if Bernanke steps off, sure it might be better for the economy in long run but i see a lot of selling short run.
Can u explain what QID, SMK, and BZQ is and why? Ur shorting brazil?
im wanting to get in emerging markets but still dont really want to get in at these prices
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