Boone Lake Dam (construction, assessment, design)

[Ted Bear]

So, there we have it: TVA says the earthen portion of the Dam will be re-cored with concrete. It will take 5 to 7 years to complete the project, putting the Lake back at full pool in 2020-2022 or so.

[Rangerred]

This is unfortunate although pretty much what I expected. It is a major problem and nothing on this scale happens quickly. Construction won't begin until early 2016, though, so you are probably looking at 2021 at the earliest. This will hit Sullivan County especially hard as they have the majority of shoreline and therefore, the majority of affected homes and businesses. Not something a county with declining population and revenue needs.

[rccrain]

The marinas are in a tight spot for sure, as well as lake property owners, but it is difficult to predict the economic effect this soon. A seven year construction project will create some jobs in and of itself. Also there are the materials, supplies, and contracting that can be sourced locally.

Also the lake recreational folks aren't just going to sit on the couch and put their disposable lake income into savings bonds. They will likely spend it on other local recreating opportunities. I suppose the other lakes' traffic will pick up too.

[Serious Conversation]

Really bad news for Sonny's, Lakeview, etc. I doubt most of these places will survive this. My uncle has a boat at Laurel Marina on South Holston and he says it's been more crowded than ever this year.

[Rangerred]

Does anyone think TVA will end up simply removing the dam? If the lake is going to be basically empty for 10 years it can't be extremely critical for flood control. I think TVA could buy out every single homeowner and business on the lake and demolish the dam for half the cost of repairing it. Plus the fact that it's built on fractured limestone, which easily erodes and is highly susceptible to sinkholes , nearly guarantees this issue will crop up again at some point in the future.

[Ted Bear]

Originally Posted by Rangerred

Does anyone think TVA will end up simply removing the dam? If the lake is going to be basically empty for 10 years it can't be extremely critical for flood control. I think TVA could buy out every single homeowner and business on the lake and demolish the dam for half the cost of repairing it. Plus the fact that it's built on fractured limestone, which easily erodes and is highly susceptible to sinkholes , nearly guarantees this issue will crop up again at some point in the future.

No, I do not believe that TVA will simply "eliminate" the dam.

I don't know the history, but there is/was a reason why when they designed the system they chose to put a dam at this location. Presumably that reason is still valid.

There is a "cost" to buy out each of the homeowners on the "lake", but what that might be is difficult to calculate. Just this afternoon I have heard two distinctly different numbers as to the number of homes on the lake. Let's just assume there are 1,000 homes, with an average "buy out price" of $500,000. That amounts to $500 Million dollars.

Then you have to think about the economic impact associated with the Lake. What is that worth? Marinas/fishing tournaments/recreational activities/tourism/sightseeing/fuel/boat sales/repairs and other direct and indirect (hotels/restaurants) activities which are driven by people who use/enjoy the Lake. I have not sense of what that number might be, but even if it is just one percent of the local economy, that amounts to $180 Million per anum. If you discount that for a period of ten years, let's say, you are talking over One Billion Dollars!

All of that, however accurate, makes spending a couple hundred million --some of which will likely come back into the area through labor/supplies/support (are you listening, Representatives: Make Sure That when this contract is awarded it stipulates that local businesses are set to participate in a meaningful manner) associated with the repairs a not so costly investment.

I am not trying to argue one way or the other. Some have really enjoyed the quieter summer season associated with having a "river" rather than having a "lake". I don't have an opinion one way or the other, but I do believe strictly from an economic perspective it would be way more costly to eliminate the dam (we have not included what it costs to physically remove it) than it is to repair it and move forward.

And no, I don't believe for a second that TVA (Who IS that arrogant guy they put out front yesterday?) will get this done in anything close to their supposed (loose) timetable) and for anything less than $500 Million. For starters, they don't seem to demonstrate the type of urgency associated with a project of this magnitude...."yeah, la di da....we'll get permits by maybe January." Are you kidding me? What have you been doing for a year? How about having those permits by the first of September and having a contract awarded by October?

[Serious Conversation]

I am not so sure how much local businesses can provide on this project. There is a high level of expertise required for something like this that probably only a handful of firms in the country are equipped to handle competently. This isn't a CCC project where you can basically give the locals a shovel and tell them to have it. They're probably going to need to bring in a significant amount of help from out of the area.

I too have concerns that the 3-5 years, $200-$300 million will turn into a decade long project approaching a billion dollars. Virtually any sort of major government infrastructure project ends up late with huge cost overruns.

I am not sure what the economic input of Boone Lake is, but I think it's larger than a lot of people realize. A fishing tournament might draw serious anglers for 100 or 200 miles, who then rent hotels up near the airport, who then go out to that Cracker Barrel, etc. I'm more familiar with the portion of the lake near Highway 75. I know there is a bait shop and gas station right before the bridge that will likely go out of business over this. I can't imagine Lakeview Marina hanging on for years, and with the marina gone, I bet the bar will go out too. I think there's going to be a major domino effect here.

[jchometeam]

I guess I have a different perspective on the economic impact of this. The lake will be back. My first impression upon hearing the time frame was "I need to buy a lake house". I seriously might do so if there is a good deal to be had. But I don't anticipate too many of these good deals. I imagine that most people will simply wait this out. These lake owners are probably fairly intelligent people, and the intelligent thing is to wait until the lake gets back and then sell. For those who aren't selling their houses during the next few years, I don't think there will be any impact. It doesn't matter what my property value is if I am not selling it.

The bigger issue is to find a way to get the boats out of the lake which are currently stuck. The marinas will likely close due to this- I feel bad for them but it is unavoidable.

I hope that the area uses this time to do some major cleanup work to the areas surrounding the lake and shore.

[Jim37680]

From what I have heard about the history of these dams, Watauga and South Holston are high dams with modest power generation that were primarily for flood control whereas Boone and Patrick Henry were constructed primarily for staged power production though they undoubtedly act as a storm surge buffer for local rain events such as the one that flooded parts Nashville several years ago. According to someone that was building a house on Patrick Henry a few years ago, there are flood easements on property there that relate to pre-TVA plans by local power producers to build a series of staged power production dams down this valley. They would have been smaller but more numerous dams. TVA took over....

I would expect that if AEP owned this dam they would have the fix in place in two years from last year (if they could get all the permits signed in that time frame).

When I was at UT a long time ago I knew quite a few electrical engineering interns with TVA since most of their engineering was located in Knoxville then. Also, TVA was much in the news locally then as this was in the midst of the huge nuclear build up (later half were cancelled half-constructed and mostly paid for). The essence of my opinion of TVA management and Board then and now is that it is super politically sensitive and folks chosen not for technical or administrative talent but for political family ties. You can expect this organization to produce decisions and timelines based on the rule of C-Y-A. Their arrogance toward homeowners and recreational users have been well demonstrated in the past. They have many dams but they really don't give one.

[Serious Conversation]

Originally Posted by jchometeam

I guess I have a different perspective on the economic impact of this. The lake will be back. My first impression upon hearing the time frame was "I need to buy a lake house". I seriously might do so if there is a good deal to be had. But I don't anticipate too many of these good deals. I imagine that most people will simply wait this out. These lake owners are probably fairly intelligent people, and the intelligent thing is to wait until the lake gets back and then sell. For those who aren't selling their houses during the next few years, I don't think there will be any impact. It doesn't matter what my property value is if I am not selling it.

The bigger issue is to find a way to get the boats out of the lake which are currently stuck. The marinas will likely close due to this- I feel bad for them but it is unavoidable.

I hope that the area uses this time to do some major cleanup work to the areas surrounding the lake and shore.

A year or two I can see people waiting out, but five to seven years or whatever it was they quoted will turn into ten years at the government's rate of speed.