[vegas_storms]

Originally Posted by Daddys///M3

Where exactly are you getting your information from? You're telling me that prices were declining at the end of 2005/beginning of 2006? You're dead wrong.

It is never necessarily a bad time to buy, depending on what your goals and intentions are. If you a purchasing a place to live, that will hedge you against the loss of renting, and plan on living there for an extended amount of time, then any market is a good time to buy, particularly a down market. If you are buying a home to double your money in 5 years then you are better off putting it all on black.

I'm not a Realtor, I'm a mortgage originator. However, Realtors and originators such as myself have access to the information regarding market movement that you just don't have. So while you make your assumptions based on the doom and gloom evening news and newpapers, we take the mountains of data we are provided and do thorough analysis regarding growth, cost of living, affordability, inventory, lending guidelines, median incomes, etc., to come up with our conclusions.

Actually you should check your dates again because the the "vegas" crash started October of 2004 and anyone in the "industry" should know that.

Yet another person who's income depends on the sale of houses and surprise surprise they have a rosy outlook.

[Kabrasco LaFonz]

Actually you should check your dates again because the the "vegas" crash started October of 2004 and anyone in the "industry" should know that.

If you review sales history on Zillow and other sites, there is a clear record that sales got inflated in 2004 and continued, not crashed, right into summer of '07 (primarily propped up at that point by custom builds that were arranged 6 months previous).

I am not a Realtor. I am not in the realty business. I am neither pessimistic about the vegas market, nor optimistic.

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by vegas_storms

Actually you should check your dates again because the the "vegas" crash started October of 2004 and anyone in the "industry" should know that.

Yet another person who's income depends on the sale of houses and surprise surprise they have a rosy outlook.

So you're telling me that over 90,000 units sold and a median appreciation rate of 3.6% during 2005 and 2006 is a "crash"?

FWIW, my income does not depend on the sale of houses. Alot of my business comes from existing homeowners. I also do commercial lending, I facilitate judgement based loans and I do small business lending. Purchases make up a very small percentage of the business I do.

I do, however, own a home and the reason I bought it had nothing to do with double-digit appreciation rates or quick flips for easy money. It had everything to do with the freedom of homeownership coupled with the desire to stop wasting my money paying someone else's mortgage.

[vegas_storms]

Originally Posted by Daddys///M3

I do, however, own a home and the reason I bought it had nothing to do with double-digit appreciation rates or quick flips for easy money. It had everything to do with the freedom of homeownership coupled with the desire to stop wasting my money paying someone else's mortgage.

Spoken like a true loan officer

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by vegas_storms

Actually you should check your dates again because the the "vegas" crash started October of 2004 and anyone in the "industry" should know that.

Yet another person who's income depends on the sale of houses and surprise surprise they have a rosy outlook.

I am "in the industry" and I was here in October of 2004. You are hopelessy inclorrect. The median peaked in mid 2006 the average continued to grow well into 2007. But that was only one small aspect of the overall scenario...

Oh and price appears to have flattened and volume is way up. The REPO price is now rising reasonably fast. It does appear that the volume minimum is past and sales are going up real fast.

Inventory is stable...maybe dropping a bit month over month. We may well see a drop of year over year by May/June.

Things do not look good...but they do look a lot better.

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by vegas_storms

Spoken like a true loan officer

I bought my first home in 2002, a year after my son was born, and the reasons I previously stated weighed heavily into my decision. Unfortunately for you and your quips, that was a full 4 years before I got into this business. At the time I was a Class A Driver/Heavy Equipment Operator, and I didn't need a RE aganet or LO to talk me into it because I realized that it was the best for my family and I, and our situation.

[Spock]

Originally Posted by Daddys///M3

Where exactly are you getting your information from? You're telling me that prices were declining at the end of 2005/beginning of 2006? You're dead wrong.

It is never necessarily a bad time to buy, depending on what your goals and intentions are. If you a purchasing a place to live, that will hedge you against the loss of renting, and plan on living there for an extended amount of time, then any market is a good time to buy, particularly a down market. If you are buying a home to double your money in 5 years then you are better off putting it all on black.

I'm not a Realtor, I'm a mortgage originator. However, Realtors and originators such as myself have access to the information regarding market movement that you just don't have. So while you make your assumptions based on the doom and gloom evening news and newpapers, we take the mountains of data we are provided and do thorough analysis regarding growth, cost of living, affordability, inventory, lending guidelines, median incomes, etc., to come up with our conclusions.

In my neighborhood, prices have been falling for 2 years now. Five houses were placed on the market in that time, but only one eventually sold in early 2007, discounted 20% off what it had appraised at when it was put on the market in 2005. The other 4 are still on the market (1) or else changed their minds because of the falling values (3).

Maybe prices on new homes are rising or the "median home" is rising, whatever that is (the median changes depending on what is selling, so it's not a valid measure of anything).

There is such a thing as a "bad time to buy". Keep in mind the benefit of a tax deduction can be overwhelmed by a falling market, like we have here.

[bumpercar]

Mortgages, Other Loans Become Harder to Get - MSNBC.com

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Spock

In my neighborhood, prices have been falling for 2 years now. Five houses were placed on the market in that time, but only one eventually sold in early 2007, discounted 20% off what it had appraised at when it was put on the market in 2005. The other 4 are still on the market (1) or else changed their minds because of the falling values (3).

Maybe prices on new homes are rising or the "median home" is rising, whatever that is (the median changes depending on what is selling, so it's not a valid measure of anything).

There is such a thing as a "bad time to buy". Keep in mind the benefit of a tax deduction can be overwhelmed by a falling market, like we have here.

Median is the middle house rather than the average cost. It is often preferred because it is not sensitive to a few large transaction as is the average. Note though I gave you both.

There is an unfortunate thing that occurs in down markets particularly when volume is falling as well as price. You have to shoot ahead of the curve to sell. Many continue lowering their price but never lower enough to get ahead of the curve. And this is particularly bad when volume is also falling heavily.

Note that there are more than a few people who went through the whole run up unable to sell their rationally priced homes. It is the nature of the market. I have a listing on an exceptional house that is very well priced and has been on the market for over a year. By any pricing rule I am aware of it should have sold in less than 6 months. Started out 15% below reasonable comps and is still 5% below. That is the breaks.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by bumpercar

Mortgages, Other Loans Become Harder to Get - MSNBC.com

Just doing a 3% FHA for a first time buyer on a 280K home. No sweat. A wells Fargo conventional with 20% down for a second home. No sweat. It may turn out that mortgage availability will throttle growth but I suspect the market has to double before that is a problem. At 1000 sfrs a month mortgage money just ain't an issue.