[Austinman]

And many of those condos will be going rental very soon. We have the same thing going on here, condos, condos, condos...

Now someone who paid $500,000 for a 500 sf. condo is living on the same floor as people who rent the same thing for like $700 a month.

And they keep building more.

[Mom2Five]

Originally Posted by Austinman

And they keep building more.

They sure do. There was a "real estate analyst" on the news this morning, in His Opinion, we're going to see a turn around in the market in the first part of 2008

My husband and I drove through Anthem the other day, we were stunned by the number of homes for sale. It seemed like every other house had a for sale sign.

This morning they mentioned Southern Highlands, Centennial Hills, Winchester and another than I can't recall. The owner at SH said it's very quiet in the neighborhood now because the houses are all empty.

The existing homes sit on the market for months and months, there's no buyers....but they keep building more. It's depressing.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Mom2Five

They sure do. There was a "real estate analyst" on the news this morning, in His Opinion, we're going to see a turn around in the market in the first part of 2008

My husband and I drove through Anthem the other day, we were stunned by the number of homes for sale. It seemed like every other house had a for sale sign.

This morning they mentioned Southern Highlands, Centennial Hills, Winchester and another than I can't recall. The owner at SH said it's very quiet in the neighborhood now because the houses are all empty.

The existing homes sit on the market for months and months, there's no buyers....but they keep building more. It's depressing.

actually it is much better than that. The builders permits are down to about 40% of what the were a couple of years ago. Nobody is building spec housing...if it ain't sold it don't get built. There is still a little over a month of new builder inventory because they are still losing a significant though decreasing percentage of buyers betweem contract and delivery.

Note that places like Anthem, the SW, Centennial and Aliante are quite hard hit. Get into good old Sun City Summerlin and there is no real impact other than some price drooping. Inventory is not particularly high there.

There are some good indicators but certainly not enough to predict a spring turnaround. I think one can safely say it is not going to get any better until spring...but what happens then is still up for grabs. I think it could be spring or summer or spring of 2008. By 2009 the next big strip expansion starts to come on line so it will be before then...but we will have to wait and see til then.

[Greatday]

Las Vegas was certainly a topic of discussion at the NAR Conference today

Capt? Did you like todays Conference? Did you get a chance to go to the forum on the water issues in the West?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Greatday

Las Vegas was certainly a topic of discussion at the NAR Conference today

Capt? Did you like todays Conference? Did you get a chance to go to the forum on the water issues in the West?

Actually GD we ran into a client...of the sort that one does not say no to...and got down there finally at 4PM.

Tomorrow will be better we hope. I will however buy the water tape...You know that one of my side jobs is pres. of the Nevada Well Owners. Show you my scars sometimes.

[vegas.consumer]

Housing prices in Las Vegas certainly falling dramatically as we speak, if you have proof otherwise, where are the figures.

Every single day when I walk down the street I am living, there are dozens of houses for sale by the owner. I have been seeing this for months, I never seen any body walking into or out of the house with any indication of buying or even looking around for that matter?.

It is a vicious cycle of financial crisis, starts with the stock market (many other areas of economy too are in downtrend!), when it combines with housing, it hurts the already artificially inflated stock market which then affect the housing, on and on.... vice versa...so, where is your proof for your claim that the Las Vegas housing is still doing better or better than the other states??.

as you argue against the report, I am just curious if you have any interesting news that we do not know?.

Vegas Consumer

Las Vegas Consumer

Originally Posted by olecapt

Fellow from KB is wrong about Vegas. New homes here are still significantly above resales...more than 10%.

Note that the article in yesterdays RJ makes the point that housing prices here have fallen very little and are unlikely to do so in the forseeable future. This is the classical CA market phenomena. A large run up is followed by a very gentle down turn with very limited demand for a period. The big guestion is how long the period. Does the continuing influx into Las Vegas mitigate that? Looks like the existing situation will continue through this year.

[smalldog]

Real estate agents always tell you it is the good time to buy. "Hurry up, otherwise the houses are gone". haha.

Originally Posted by vegas.consumer

Housing prices in Las Vegas certainly falling dramatically as we speak, if you have proof otherwise, where are the figures.

Every single day when I walk down the street I am living, there are dozens of houses for sale by the owner. I have been seeing this for months, I never seen any body walking into or out of the house with any indication of buying or even looking around for that matter?.

It is a vicious cycle of financial crisis, starts with the stock market (many other areas of economy too are in downtrend!), when it combines with housing, it hurts the already artificially inflated stock market which then affect the housing, on and on.... vice versa...so, where is your proof for your claim that the Las Vegas housing is still doing better or better than the other states??.

as you argue against the report, I am just curious if you have any interesting news that we do not know?.

Vegas Consumer

Las Vegas Consumer

[jfkIII]

Received my latest issue of Money magazine yesterday. Their prediction for 2008 for housing is gloomy. They pointed out that housing prices tend to run in 10-year cycles, so, as an investment, housing is not a good one for quite awhile. The article did go on to present that if you bought your house prior to 2004, and plan to stay in it for awhile (time not specified) that eventually it will get back to the 2004 levels of equity, and that one would be basically unaffected. It's just that housing between now and then is a very bad investment.

[Mom2Five]

Originally Posted by olecapt

actually it is much better than that. The builders permits are down to about 40% of what the were a couple of years ago. Nobody is building spec housing...if it ain't sold it don't get built. There is still a little over a month of new builder inventory because they are still losing a significant though decreasing percentage of buyers betweem contract and delivery.

If builder permits are down to 40% and it's not being built unless it's sold, then what about the new construction going on at, for just one example, Inspirada? That has a very long way to go before being completed. I went through it a few times and it seems there are thousands of homes still to be built, and that's not the only new community being developed. Are the builders going to leave empty lots just sitting there? The prices on the new construction are undercutting the prices of existing homes for sale, so I don't see how with all of the new construction as well as existing homes for sale we can see any turnaround for several years. I do like what your saying but I just don't see it.

[Mom2Five]

Originally Posted by jfkIII

The article did go on to present that if you bought your house prior to 2004, and plan to stay in it for awhile (time not specified) that eventually it will get back to the 2004 levels of equity, and that one would be basically unaffected. It's just that housing between now and then is a very bad investment.

I bought my current home mid-2004 (ouch!) and comparing to friends who bought prior to that, as well as customers getting appraisals, I'm going to agree with that statement.