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When it comes to real estate, don't hate the player, hate the game. Real estate agents have a reputation lower than dog catcher because standards were lowered to qualify for a loan. It's not fair to try and hold a sales agent accountable for saying "nows the time to buy."
It's the nature of sales. It's inherently adversarial even with fiduciary obligations. Sales agents don't have the luxury of predicting trends beyond paint colors and even then, they do themselves a disservice.
Buyer beware is the only thing an honest agent should say, but it should also be understood that agents have opinions too and that's not what they get paid for. Any agent trying to predict the market is just offering an opinion. The sooner people stop asking agents for a market forecast based on hindsight, the better off they will be.
Thought not...Now strike a blow for your integrity and admit oldcapt made no bad recommendations to anyone.
Sorry Cappy, your record speaks for itself. Otherwise, you wouldn't get four different people in less than a 24 hours time span commenting on your bad calls.
People look to various sources of information in order to make their buying decisions, including this forum. Many people in this Vegas forum and the LVRJ forum expressed the opinion that it was best to be cautious or that housing prices were headed for a fall. You were routinely there to tell them they didn't know what they were talking about, Vegas was different, they were doomsayers, etc. Well, as I and others have pointed out, it was you that didn't know what you were talking about.
At the end of the day, everyone is ultimately responsible for their own decision to buy and sell. That's one of the reasons that I don't blame the banks for the housing mess, a position that you have routinely taken. Everyone had a hand in creating this housing mess except realtors, right? It's just a happy coincidence that your perspective on the housing market back in 2006 (there is no bubble) was aligned with your financial gain. So, as others look for opinions in formulating their buying/selling decisions, I think it's fair to offer up the track record of those that routinely dispense their predictions - especially when they've been horribly incorrect. If you don't like it, tough.
The entire industry made bad recommendations. Everyone is culpable. Tony, you've made Olecapt out to be a demon by virtue of his status as an agent and their inherent exhuberism, we get that. How many agents do you know that said exercise caution during the boom? What's the point you are trying to make? Why do you think one agent should take all the flak for an industry run amok?
What was the average agent to do? Quit practicing?
The entire industry made bad recommendations. Everyone is culpable. Tony, you've made Olecapt out to be a demon by virtue of his status as an agent and their inherent exhuberism, we get that. How many agents do you know that said exercise caution during the boom? What's the point you are trying to make? Why do you think one agent should take all the flak for an industry run amok?
What was the average agent to do? Quit practicing?
Thats not the problem. The problem is twofold as Tony said.
Olecapt got the following two broad areas really wrong and continued to be unrepetant to this day:
1.) Shadow inventory. According to Olecapt, NOD's and so forth could not be extrapolated to forecast future inventory issues. This was clearly wrong and there remains a huge shadow inventory in Vegas.
2.) Banks setting prices. Just LOL beyond ridiculous. Olecapt continues to insist that banks initiated a lower price selloff. Of course he never ever mentions the huge oversupply of inventory and denial of factors leading to forclosures allows him to blindly ignore likely future inventory increases.
The entire industry made bad recommendations. Everyone is culpable. Tony, you've made Olecapt out to be a demon by virtue of his status as an agent and their inherent exhuberism, we get that. How many agents do you know that said exercise caution during the boom? What's the point you are trying to make? Why do you think one agent should take all the flak for an industry run amok?
What was the average agent to do? Quit practicing?
SK, it was the rare realtor that recommended caution during the boom, but they did exist. One of the reasons for that, which you alluded to in your earlier post, was because their financial incentives were not aligned with recommending a cautious stance. That said, there was a So Cal realtor that actively blogged and he was just as incredulous as anyone as to what what happening in the real-estate market. I'll see if I can find a link if you're interested.
Other than that, I thought I made my point very clear. I think it's fair to offer up the track record of someone that routinely made/makes directional market calls, particularly when they've been very wrong in the past. Much like anyone may want to know the past track record of a money manager before they invested in their funds.
I saw this thread and instead of clicking to the end misclicked and found myself at the beginning. Yes Olecapt's prediction was wrong but he has a wealth of knowledge, and one can not always predict the market -any market. Tony don't be too down on Olecapt because if he went away - we miss him and what would you have to write about?
Thats not the problem. The problem is twofold as Tony said.
Olecapt got the following two broad areas really wrong and continued to be unrepetant to this day:
1.) Shadow inventory. According to Olecapt, NOD's and so forth could not be extrapolated to forecast future inventory issues. This was clearly wrong and there remains a huge shadow inventory in Vegas.
Define "shadow inventory".
The inventory of lender owned homes never got past three months and in general remained in the range of less than two months. See the charts on my blog that tracked it at least since 2Q09.
You can define shadow inventory as all those under water I suppose. But that is irrelevant. No way to tell how many of those will go short or foreclosed.
Basically the lenders have never controlled a large inventory. And NODs are loaded with repetitions and multiples. The number means very little and over time has shown no significance.
Quote:
2.) Banks setting prices. Just LOL beyond ridiculous. Olecapt continues to insist that banks initiated a lower price selloff. Of course he never ever mentions the huge oversupply of inventory and denial of factors leading to forclosures allows him to blindly ignore likely future inventory increases.
So meh.
More silliness. The REOs reached a peak of about 80% of sales and combined with shorts exceeded 90% of the market. So the banks directly controlled over 90% of sales. Who the hell do you think is controlling as they get past 90% of the market? And it is during this time that the prices dropped like a rock.
And volume increased like mad throughout the period...why?...because the buyers could not believe the low prices.
INventory? you are again kidding. It has held in the range of a month or two for a year. That is over supply?
Your whole hypothesis is so dumb it is hard to believe.
SK, it was the rare realtor that recommended caution during the boom, but they did exist. One of the reasons for that, which you alluded to in your earlier post, was because their financial incentives were not aligned with recommending a cautious stance. That said, there was a So Cal realtor that actively blogged and he was just as incredulous as anyone as to what what happening in the real-estate market. I'll see if I can find a link if you're interested.
Other than that, I thought I made my point very clear. I think it's fair to offer up the track record of someone that routinely made/makes directional market calls, particularly when they've been very wrong in the past. Much like anyone may want to know the past track record of a money manager before they invested in their funds.
All this shows how little you know about RE.
2007 was absolutely miserable. 2008 was a lot better after the lenders bombed price. Tony suggests the RE Agent has some interest in price. But the primary interest is revenue...which has two components volume and price. 2007 was miserable because there was no volume. 2008 was vastly better because there was volume that vastly offset any decrease in price. So in fact the RE Agent was well served by the price drop driven by the mortgage holders.
It is perfectly fair to push prior records. It is fair to point out that olecapt missed the lender suicide. But then one would also note that olecapt picked up the end of the drop in the 2Q of last year before almost anyone.
It is also irrational to confuse olecapt's projections with his recommendations. They may be very different. When making a recommendation olecapt considers the risks involved...when making a projection he is often guilty of linear interpolation. What is happening will happen and the rate of change will remain roughly constant. And that works most of the time..
But it is too weak a standard for a recommendation. You need margin for that.
2007 was absolutely miserable. 2008 was a lot better after the lenders bombed price. Tony suggests the RE Agent has some interest in price. But the primary interest is revenue...which has two components volume and price. 2007 was miserable because there was no volume. 2008 was vastly better because there was volume that vastly offset any decrease in price. So in fact the RE Agent was well served by the price drop driven by the mortgage holders.
Actually, you appear to have a reading problem as I never mentioned price. More than anything a realtor needs transactions to occur to make their commission. The last thing a realtor needs is for potential buyers to delay a buying decision because they think prices may go lower or that there is a housing bubble. When buyers take a wait and see attitude, the volume dries up. Not too coincidentally, in the LVRJ forum 2006 you were spouting that there was no housing bubble in Vegas. And in this forum in 2008 that prices had bottomed and would likely turn up soon.
Quote:
It is perfectly fair to push prior records. It is fair to point out that olecapt missed the lender suicide. But then one would also note that olecapt picked up the end of the drop in the 2Q of last year before almost anyone.
I'm glad we agree that it's fair to point it out. I feel a lot better now. It so pains you that you completely missed the housing crash, that you're compelled to label it "the lender suicide" and attribute it to a tinfoil hat theory of market manipulation. "I didn't miss the housing crash, I missed the lender suicide!" As far as the Q2 call - pardon me if I'm not terribly impressed, as you were calling the bottom at least as far back as 2008. Your forecasting methodology seems to be based on the philosophy of "guess early and guess often, I have to get it right sooner or later."
Quote:
It is also irrational to confuse olecapt's projections with his recommendations. They may be very different. When making a recommendation olecapt considers the risks involved...when making a projection he is often guilty of linear interpolation. What is happening will happen and the rate of change will remain roughly constant. And that works most of the time..
But it is too weak a standard for a recommendation. You need margin for that.
All this is past Tony's ken...
Well, here's something that we can actually agree on. Anyone basing a buying decision based on your forecasting ability would have to be irrational.
The inventory of lender owned homes never got past three months and in general remained in the range of less than two months. See the charts on my blog that tracked it at least since 2Q09.
You can define shadow inventory as all those under water I suppose. But that is irrelevant. No way to tell how many of those will go short or foreclosed.
Basically the lenders have never controlled a large inventory. And NODs are loaded with repetitions and multiples. The number means very little and over time has shown no significance.
More silliness. The REOs reached a peak of about 80% of sales and combined with shorts exceeded 90% of the market. So the banks directly controlled over 90% of sales. Who the hell do you think is controlling as they get past 90% of the market? And it is during this time that the prices dropped like a rock.
And volume increased like mad throughout the period...why?...because the buyers could not believe the low prices.
INventory? you are again kidding. It has held in the range of a month or two for a year. That is over supply?
Your whole hypothesis is so dumb it is hard to believe.
If this isn't a clear display of how little you understand the inventory issue, I don' know what is. In one paragraph you say-
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt
Basically the lenders have never controlled a large inventory.
And in the very next paragraph you say-
Quote:
Originally Posted by olecapt
So the banks directly controlled over 90% of sales.
Brilliant
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