[Swigchow]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

Email received today from local Las Vegas realtor:

"You are going to miss the boat if you wait too long to buy a house. Housing prices are starting to go up!"

Interestingly, over the past year, I have been getting requests to sell. In fact, someone offered to buy one of our places (for a modest profit) sight unseen and with quick close. I suspect the mood has been changing.

[RCCCB]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

The banks are not pressing the gas pedal on the better, newer inventory so that they can bid on it when the rules are announced for bundled sales. Why would they put all of the effort into selling these houses to individuals when they can outflank them in bulk from Freddie/Fannie? Do not kid yourselves that the crisis is getting better. They are merely further gaming the system to benefit themselves. After all, that is capitalism…correct?

There are TONS of foreclosed homes that are either being rented out till prices rise or empty also waiting for prices to rise.
The banks have to keep them because if they go off the books they may (as an example) get 125K for a home, but they would show a 250K loss on their books (which they don't like).

They rather be a solvent paper tiger than a disolved broke set of banks.

[SportyandMisty]

deleted... found the answer to my own question.

[logline]

Originally Posted by Swigchow

I suspect the mood has been changing.

Indeed! The world's biggest bear on the housing market has started to change his tune. It's not a ringing endorsement yet, but if you've ever read this guy's previous posts, you'd know what a big change this is:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: LPS Home Price Index (HPI) Shows National Home Prices Rose .2%, First Rise Since March 2010; Sales Volume 30% Lower Than Any Point Since 1998; Another Low-Volume Failure?

For those of you who don't know who MISH (Michael Shedlock) is, he has been one of the biggest and most vocal skeptics of the real estate market since the bubble burst. For him to say some cities may have bottomed is a BIG deal.

Hmmm....

[eventusstultorummagister]

Principal reductions (for a privileged few) will invariably lead to additional, perhaps even massive, waves of new defaults. This is the main reason for the banks reluctance.

[tbill618]

Originally Posted by logline

For those of you who don't know who MISH (Michael Shedlock) is, he has been one of the biggest and most vocal skeptics of the real estate market since the bubble burst. For him to say some cities may have bottomed is a BIG deal.

Hmmm....

I like Mish because he has been spot on with his analysis of this crisis and he doesn't prevaricate. Also, very little jargon clouds his writing.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by logline

Indeed! The world's biggest bear on the housing market has started to change his tune. It's not a ringing endorsement yet, but if you've ever read this guy's previous posts, you'd know what a big change this is:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: LPS Home Price Index (HPI) Shows National Home Prices Rose .2%, First Rise Since March 2010; Sales Volume 30% Lower Than Any Point Since 1998; Another Low-Volume Failure?

For those of you who don't know who MISH (Michael Shedlock) is, he has been one of the biggest and most vocal skeptics of the real estate market since the bubble burst. For him to say some cities may have bottomed is a BIG deal.

Hmmm....

Breakdown of the "recovery":

Housing and Economic Predictions for 2012 and Beyond « The Housing Guru Blog

SYNOPSIS: Ultimately, as I review my housing and economic predictions for 2012 and beyond, I expect the coming year to be one of turmoil and uncertainty, with a better than fifty percent chance that the U.S. will slip into another recession.

[fishordie]

The best statement of this article, which I highly agree with, is the masses prefer to stay uninformed.
All one has to do is look at California. "As goes California So goes the Nation" or words to that effect have been around for decades. Perhaps the nation might have read once again the geniuses in Sacramento completely missed on their revenue estimates with Calif. expected to be at least 16 Billion in the Red. Yet, these same geniuses in Sac. wield incredible power in National politics. Just as disconcerting is how many states are going to find themselves, once again, in a similar position.
The results for California will either be massive layoffs, again, massive reductions in income, increase in Sales Tax (California's sales tax is already ridiculous) or the big genius move of raising the tax rates for high income individuals. How many companies and soon to be retired moguls moving out of Calif. will it take before we realize Calif. and the rest of the Nation have some bigger than stated issues. By the way has anyone read about the dude from Facebook moving out of the country?? Most of the headlines note it is for tax purposes, beyond what will have to be paid in America, though the individual states he will live in the country of choice. My opinion is this will not be the last mogul leaving America. We are a country in Economic disarray.

So how does this translate to Nevada?? Somehow, Nevada with no State Tax and a lower than Calif. Sales tax is NOT recruiting enough higher income retirees, Businesses or higher income individuals to contribute to the State Economy. More importantly those who are in the higher income levels know Cash is King and are making deals rather than just forking over the dough. Hey Can you blame them??

I continue to state the lower end markets are being buoyed by out of State investors looking for a great ROI. But to Jump start the overall housing market Nevada will not only need more jobs but higher paying jobs. Until then the mid and upper priced Nevada properties will for the most part wallow and continue to decline in price.

Lastly the question of how long can interest rates be held artificially low is anyone's guess. However, at this point the housing market and every other market is scared to death of a raise in interest rates as that will be the death knell of any housing market recovery. Those of us paying cash are not concerned as our ROI is outrageous but for those who do not want to find themselves upside down with their mortgages you had better believe they are sensitive to the direction of interest rates. Be afraid, Be very afraid. However this does not mean you cannot make your home buying decisions from Strength. Knowledge is king but if you are looking to industry experts, media or government agency created estimates for your knowledge then be prepared to lose your fannies.

Great article though. Best of luck to all

FOD

[RCCCB]

Originally Posted by fishordie

how long can interest rates be held artificially low is anyone's guess.
FOD

Not quite, they are low to keep things like increases to SS and payments on the debt low.
Of course it caused people who were retired with money in the bank to take risky investments putting many on welfare, also made homes cost more at one point than they should of, but those are the breaks according to our government's infinite wisdom.

[eventusstultorummagister]

One thing you can count on for sure... dealing with the fiscal crisis will most certainly be deferred until post election.

What I'm not quite sure of... is what the U.S. credit rating will be by then!


Interest rates... watch for investors who start shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds, you will know what's afoot.