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Old 06-04-2013, 01:27 PM
 
244 posts, read 332,439 times
Reputation: 204

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ddrhazy View Post
Post your sources on vacancies.
UNLV
CBER-LIED
Report on Housing Market Conditions

http://cber.unlv.edu/publications/ho...conditions.pdf

Single-family detached: 44,584
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Old 06-04-2013, 01:41 PM
 
244 posts, read 332,439 times
Reputation: 204
Great Reflation Produces Mirage Of Recovery In Housing - Forbes

"Now that most of the available foreclosures have been picked through (with the rest log jammed with litigation and red tape), many of the new classes of investment buyers are striking deals directly with the large home builders to buy homes before they are even built."

Sound familiar???
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Old 06-04-2013, 01:47 PM
 
92 posts, read 114,774 times
Reputation: 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by VegasVicsezhowdy View Post
Great Reflation Produces Mirage Of Recovery In Housing - Forbes

"Now that most of the available foreclosures have been picked through (with the rest log jammed with litigation and red tape), many of the new classes of investment buyers are striking deals directly with the large home builders to buy homes before they are even built."

Sound familiar???
Hedge funds and other inexperienced investors, IMHO, are the "dumb money" in this game right now.
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Old 06-04-2013, 02:01 PM
 
2,928 posts, read 3,553,677 times
Reputation: 1882
I believe this is talking about overall vacancies and not necessarily homes that are bank owned. They also have a more recent publication for Q4 of 2012.

http://business.unlv.edu/uploads/fil..._HMR2012Q4.pdf

If you compare the most current report with the previous one, the vacancy rate is already less from 10.9 to 10.3. Now we can talk about numbers but let's try to analyze what is happening exactly. The population in Vegas has not gone down. It's only been going up and will continue to go up for decades. According to another publication from the business school in UNLV, population increase will continue to go up at a rate of anywhere from 1-2%/year.

http://cber.unlv.edu/commentary/CBER-19June2012.pdf

So what the hell is going on exactly? If there are more people then why are vacancies going up? Well what happens when people have lost their jobs? The first thing they do is move back with mom and dad or get room mates. So while people's finances cannot accommodate renting their own place, it doesn't mean it is a trend that will continue indefinitely. As people save up by living with mom and dad, their plan is to one day move out again.

Also consider that before the economy took a nose dive, apartment vacancies were at 5% for 2006(page 5 from the link below).

http://business.unlv.edu/uploads/fil...Apt_2013Q1.pdf

So while 10% is high, it doesn't scare me. I've already been renting in this market with that vacancy rate for the last 4 years. It has forced me to reduce rents but that's the business I'm in.
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Old 06-04-2013, 02:10 PM
 
92 posts, read 114,774 times
Reputation: 72
Here's an interesting article about inexperienced investors and "dumb money"

Amateur investors tap 401(k)s to buy homes - May. 20, 2013
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Old 06-04-2013, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Las Vegas, NV
327 posts, read 446,509 times
Reputation: 445
Default Radar Logic: Forces Driving Up Prices Are Temporary

https://premiumresearch.radarlogic.c...=RPXMHMR-MARCH

$ Download. Summarized here in comment #6 (by blog owner):
Surging mortgage rates may scare sellers into action » OC Housing News

Quote:
Radar Logic: Forces Driving Up Prices Are Temporary

Despite improvements in home values, Radar Logic continues to contend the factors underpinning the recovery will not lead to sustainable price gains.

In March, Radar Logic’s home price index, which tracks 25 metro areas, showed a 13.1 percent year-over-year gain.

Even with the double-digit gain, the data and analytics firm touched on several points to explain why the trend won’t last, with the main one being the temporary issue of limited supply...(other interesting stuff)...Institutional purchase activity has been especially notable in seven metros areas—Atlanta, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, and Tampa. In these markets, the impact of their exit will be more strongly felt, according to the report.

Recent evidence actually suggests profitability in the single-family rental market is already disappearing.
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Old 06-04-2013, 05:35 PM
 
244 posts, read 332,439 times
Reputation: 204
100% appreciation in 4 months?


Is Zillow Wrong? Las Vegas Home Prices Double in 4 months! Steve Hawks Helps Home Owners - YouTube
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Old 06-04-2013, 06:23 PM
 
261 posts, read 423,127 times
Reputation: 137
Clark county's population went from about 750K in 1990 to over 2 million in 2012. The housing bubble burst barely registered in 2008-09 with the population gain of only 24k. The next two years population went up 100k.

If Clark county is gaining 50k people a year then even an overhang of 100k homes is going to be "consumed" in 3 to 4 years. So this housin bust is over and the only question is if prices keep climbing.
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Old 06-04-2013, 06:44 PM
 
3,598 posts, read 4,950,670 times
Reputation: 3169
Quote:
Originally Posted by VegasVicsezhowdy View Post
I call total shenanigans on that claim. 100% in 4 months? Come on!

Even if those numbers were accurate, they are not telling the whole story. The "comp" they compare it to must have been totally trashed and this clown must have done some major remodeling and/or upgrades to get that price. That was a sales pitch and you fell for it.
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Old 06-04-2013, 06:58 PM
 
12,973 posts, read 15,807,980 times
Reputation: 5478
Yup -
Reality is bad enough. Got a couple of guys doing flips in Sun City. Buy nice but run down and fix it up pretty well. Typical bought at $277K listed at $335K. Bought at $400K now listed at $500K.. I think the profit though is at most $30 or 40K. So maybe 10% in 6 months. OK but won't make you rich.
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