[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by bayview6

Las Vegas is not facing a real estate bust, even if interest rates creep up. The demand for ownership of a home is solid. Just read the pages of City-Data to see that plenty of folks want to buy, not rent.

The plain fact of the matter is that real estate for sale in the Valley is reasonable priced.

I live near Seven Hills and Anthem. From the data I have seen, selling prices are higher than last year, but the number of homes sold is declining. Non-contingent inventory also is up significantly on a year-over-year basis.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

But if you believed that the housing market is about to burst again then the most financially wise option would be to sell your current place and rent till the burst happened.

That's not necessarily true. There are ways to hedge if one believes the market is going to decline. Regardless, as I stated in a previous post, I am satisfied with my house.

[ddrhazy]

Originally Posted by ND_Irish

That's not necessarily true. There are ways to hedge if one believes the market is going to decline. Regardless, as I stated in a previous post, I am satisfied with my house.

No no no no. Hedging is something people do when they are unsure of a specific outcome. You seemed quite sure a few posts down, but now I think you're beginning to realize that your belief in the market is not as rocksteady as you thought it was.

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

No no no no. Hedging is something people do when they are unsure of a specific outcome. You seemed quite sure a few posts down, but now I think you're beginning to realize that your belief in the market is not as rocksteady as you thought it was.

I think you are confused. Hedging is something you do in order to minimize potential risk from an adverse move in the price of an asset. One may do it if he believes he knows an outcome will occur with certainty or not.

I am not beginning to realize anything. I offered observations on how I see things and am completely open to the possibility that I may be wrong not only on when something is going to happen but whether it is going to happen at all. However, based on all of the current data I see coupled with what has happened in the past, I still believe that there is downside risk in housing at this time due to pricing and the potential for interest rate increases.

[ND_Irish]

Here is a link to an interesting report from Karl Case on housing. See pages 6 and 7 of the PDF file for data pertaining to income, mortgage rates, and house prices: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8820.pdf.

[BBMW]

No, they'be been explicitly trying to pump the housing market. When they were doing the quantitative easing purchased year or two back, they were buying mortgage backed securities, specifically to keep mortgage rates down.

Originally Posted by lvoc

The feds have been suppressing interest rates to prevent deflation. Nothing more. And successfully, If you check the standard economic discussion we should have been into hyper inflation years ago. Did not happen did it?

The buyer simply buys a smaller house. Does not required less houses. In fact buyers are buying less houses now with the low interest rates.

So little if any correlation.

[ddrhazy]

Originally Posted by ND_Irish

I think you are confused. Hedging is something you do in order to minimize potential risk from an adverse move in the price of an asset. One may do it if he believes he knows an outcome will occur with certainty or not.

I am not beginning to realize anything. I offered observations on how I see things and am completely open to the possibility that I may be wrong not only on when something is going to happen but whether it is going to happen at all. However, based on all of the current data I see coupled with what has happened in the past, I still believe that there is downside risk in housing at this time due to pricing and the potential for interest rate increases.

No I'm not confused, I'm just calling out an individual who seems to think he has a crystal ball. Yes you're correct about hedging minimizing risk but it ultimately is done for people who do not know what a future outcome is. If you TRULY believed housing was going to crash again, you wouldn't hedge your bet, you'd go "ALL IN" as we like to say in the gambling community.



hedge your bets - to protect yourself against making the wrong choice Forecasters were hedging their bets about the storm, saying that it could bring lots of snow, or it could head away from us."

hedge bets - Idioms by The Free Dictionary

[ND_Irish]

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

No I'm not confused, I'm just calling out an individual who seems to think he has a crystal ball. Yes you're correct about hedging minimizing risk but it ultimately is done for people who do not know what a future outcome is. If you TRULY believed housing was going to crash again, you wouldn't hedge your bet, you'd go "ALL IN" as we like to say in the gambling community.



hedge your bets - to protect yourself against making the wrong choice Forecasters were hedging their bets about the storm, saying that it could bring lots of snow, or it could head away from us."

hedge bets - Idioms by The Free Dictionary

You seem to have a vested interest in seeing the housing market go up based on your strong reactions to my observations with regard to where I think housing is and where it MAY be headed given current data. I respect that you view the market differently, and as I stated to another poster, we'll see who is right in the next few years. Perhaps, you can enlighten the rest of us with regard to where you think housing is and where it may be headed based on empirical data you have been examining regarding both national and local housing markets.

[ddrhazy]

Are you trying to change the subject because I've demonstrated how weak your resolve is?

I don't make predictions for people, I only talk about the current trends. I never claimed to hold a crystal ball and I warn others not to do so themselves.

[ND_Irish]

‘Only a matter of time’: Las Vegas home prices flatten out - VEGAS INC