[olecapt]

Vegas is not an island. It must eventually return to balance with the rest of the US. That happens when the foreclosure thing has run its cost.

I would think a rise of 20 or 25% will occur reasonably quickly then just to get resales aligned with the cost of building new homes.

Nothing has changed or is likely to in the basics of Las Vegas. We will be back into speculative expansion the first time it appears economically viable. The large tracts of land in private hands exist sufficient to supply heavy growth for at least ten years.

When will it start? Well some of the analysts suggest we are about 2/3 of the way through the foreclosures. Then again...maybe more appear. So at least two more....maybe five?

[jfkIII]

Originally Posted by olecapt

So at least two more....maybe five?

Decades?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by jfkIII

Decades?

Years...it is a pretty finite time frame.

[jasper12]

This thread should be re-named, "How Low Can it Go?". Sort of like a limbo dance..and keep going lower, and lower, until finally, you crash to the floor in hysterical laughing. Partially in pain, partially in hysteria. Time for a drink.

[Tagalog]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Vegas is not an island. It must eventually return to balance with the rest of the US. That happens when the foreclosure thing has run its cost.

I would think a rise of 20 or 25% will occur reasonably quickly then just to get resales aligned with the cost of building new homes.

Nothing has changed or is likely to in the basics of Las Vegas. We will be back into speculative expansion the first time it appears economically viable. The large tracts of land in private hands exist sufficient to supply heavy growth for at least ten years.

When will it start? Well some of the analysts suggest we are about 2/3 of the way through the foreclosures. Then again...maybe more appear. So at least two more....maybe five?

Las Vegas was the first to hit by the recession. It was be the last to recover. As far as I can see the entire United States except for a few cities have been to recover. With the recent downgrade in US credit plus negative factors in Europe, this will push US down further into another recession/depression. 20 to 25% rise in property is completely crazy!! Only a real estate agent will give such misleading information. If it ever becomes normal business in Vegas, we are looking at 1.5 to 2.5 appreciation in homes. But this is decades away. Not the 3-5 years this agent is talking about. There is such a massive shadow inventory that if it was release at one time, our property would be worth pennies on the dollar.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Tagalog

Las Vegas was the first to hit by the recession. It was be the last to recover. As far as I can see the entire United States except for a few cities have been to recover. With the recent downgrade in US credit plus negative factors in Europe, this will push US down further into another recession/depression. 20 to 25% rise in property is completely crazy!! Only a real estate agent will give such misleading information. If it ever becomes normal business in Vegas, we are looking at 1.5 to 2.5 appreciation in homes. But this is decades away. Not the 3-5 years this agent is talking about. There is such a massive shadow inventory that if it was release at one time, our property would be worth pennies on the dollar.

Nonsense.

Of course if we go off into a recession or depression all bets are off. God knows where it all ends up. But presuming the world does not fall in....

The present situation is driven by REOs and the price at which the mortgage holders choose to sell them. Once that stops the price must revert to something in keeping with the cost of replacing a home or building new. Right now there is a huge discrepancy.

Why do you think it is good for a RE Agent to see such a price increase? Hell one likely outcome of the end of the foreclosures is we lose half the volume. That does not get made up for by a 25% increase in price.

What shadow inventory? If the banks unload the foreclosures which they will eventually do there is no more shadow inventory. We have done something like 70,000 foreclosures with maybe another 40,000 to go. At a couple of thousand a month that takes two more years.

[eventusstultorummagister]

I can drive from one end of Vegas to the other at 7:00 am or 4:00 pm and there is no traffic to speak of nowadays. I like that but at some point you come to realize that nobody is commuting to work any longer.

Ol' Capt seems to have lost it, his posts now border on the absurd.

[jhiker1o]

Originally Posted by Tagalog

If it ever becomes normal business in Vegas, we are looking at 1.5 to 2.5 appreciation in homes. But this is decades away. Not the 3-5 years this agent is talking about. There is such a massive shadow inventory that if it was release at one time, our property would be worth pennies on the dollar.

Not entirely a bad thing for those thinking of upgrading to a bigger dwelling. The downside, I've lost value on my condo I need more money and save money to pay up front if I want to get a bigger place but on the good side, I love my inexpensive condo and its location.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

I can drive from one end of Vegas to the other at 7:00 am or 4:00 pm and there is no traffic to speak of nowadays. I like that but at some point you come to realize that nobody is commuting to work any longer.

Nonsense. Try Henderson to NW at 4:00. You will find the congestion.

Ol' Capt seems to have lost it, his posts now border on the absurd.

Only to the doomers who have lost touch with reality.

[ScoopLV]

Originally Posted by jhiker1o

Not entirely a bad thing for those thinking of upgrading to a bigger dwelling. The downside, I've lost value on my condo I need more money and save money to pay up front if I want to get a bigger place but on the good side, I love my inexpensive condo and its location.

A crap economy with depressed house values is the BEST time to trade up.

Let's say your condo was worth $100,000 in 2005, and you want to buy a house that was worth $500,000 in 2005. For argument's sake, both properties have lost the Vegas average of 45%. (I think condos have lost more than the average, but the numbers still work out about the same.)

Sell the condo for $45,000 and lose $55,000 on the deal. BUT, buy the bigger house for $225,000 and realize $275,000 in savings compared to peak value.

It's the people trying to downsize who are really taking it in the shorts.


Right now, in my area, it's the really big houses that are selling off. Even the monstrosity on Copper Rd. finally sold. If it weren't for last week's stock crash, I would have been fairly optimistic about the future of Vegas' housing market.