[apple92680]

I can recall back in 2006 when Jim Rhodes and other well-known Las Vegas developers were buying property over in Arizona on the other side of Hoover Dam with the intent to build "bedroom communities" to Las Vegas. The name for the town he wanted to turn into a Las Vegas suburb was White Hills, AZ, about 40 miles north of Kingman.

In addition to that, they were also trying to push the idea of "Coyote Springs" up in Lincoln County, as a commuter suburb.

What does this portend for the next couple of years?

Homebuilders eye Pahrump, Mesquite as Las Vegas land prices take off

March 23, 2022

By Eli Segal, Las Vegas Review-Journal

With land prices accelerating in Las Vegas, homebuilders are increasingly eyeing rural communities sprinkled around Southern Nevada for potential new projects.

Most, if not all, of the major builders in the region “are seriously investigating opportunities” in outlying areas such as Pahrump, Indian Springs, Moapa Valley, Mesquite and Laughlin, according to a new report from Las Vegas-based Home Builders Research.

Homebuilding has long been occurring in these areas, but perhaps now is the start of a broader “acceleration” to “address the needs of buyers in the lower price ranges,” the firm’s president, Andrew Smith, wrote in the report.

Builders’ land acquisition costs are a key factor when they decide how to price their homes, and lately, amid Southern Nevada’s housing boom, buying acres of dirt in the Las Vegas area has become increasingly expensive.

With gas prices being what they are, I don't see how anyone thinks Mesquite or Laughlin -- 90 miles away from Las Vegas -- will ever be viable suburbs?

[movin1]

My sister lives in a suburb about 20 miles west of Chicago. If traffic is bad (when isn't it?), it can take 2 hours to get to the city. I lived 130 miles south of Chicago most of my life and went there often. If the roads are good and traffic moves well, living a few hours from a major city is not a bad thing.

[Willy702]

White Hills is actually in play now due to the bridge and fast route around BC. Its less than an hour to Henderson. Pahrump will be a tougher sell due to the increasing traffic on Blue Diamond but it's always been an option. This isn't speculation, it's just growth. I think especially for retirees living in Arizona is fine, WFH types might prefer the Nevada tax.

In any case the growth is inevitable. Valley is getting close to filled in. The more distant areas will eventually get built out and more close in locations will finally gentrify and be worth a lot more.

[steveborsto12]

Just rambling here.

I am a novice at real estate, but probably know more than the average person. Here are my observations:

1. 2006, NINJA loans, a designed takeover of real estate via security swaps, etc. I don't see the same thing happening. I don't see the defaults coming in on these loans. So, it should be at least stable, steady growth, moving forward.

2. So, 2022, a bit different. loans likely won't fall apart. Although, it is possible with these adjustable rates because stupid people are too optimistic and borrow more than they can handle. House owernership is over rated and way over valued by these realtors, bankers, and people that have a lot to gain by you buying.

3. Remember this, the reason real estate is inflated and rents inflated is to keep people in slavery via housing. They want all of us to be slaves to our jobs, etc. Slaves to credit because we can't afford rent. The move is to build relationships with friends and family and get as many people as possible to live in the house (the Asians are brilliant at this).

4. Here is something you also have to consider in life when it comes to real estate: you change as a person over time. Your needs change. Having a big house is a major drain on your money. Sure, you might make a few bucks over time with real estate, but it is not as good of an investment as having liquid money on hand to take advantage of markets. For example, I bought OXY in November 2020, about 4 thousand shares at about 10 bucks, and now it is worth 60 a share. You can make much more money when you have the cash on hand and take advantage of markets. Loading up on a big house is almost always a bad bet in the long run, because it ties up too much capital. Add the maintaining of the house, the possible job loss that can happen anytime if you are working for someone, add the terrible neighbor, insurance, and worst are the taxes.

5. Bottom line is that buying is never a good move in my honest opinion unless you are buying with cash and have a lot of cash to back up situations that happen in life, like the job loss or health issues. Also, only buy when the market is obviously down. This is definitely not the time to be buying a home in Las Vegas. It is totally over valued.

Last ramble: this water shortage here is going to be an issue at some point. And this is what might cause the real estate in Vegas to go really bad.

[steveborsto12]

Another important thing to remember (and people under value this): real estate transaction fees are too expensive.

Conclusion: buying in a market like this is only for consumers that don't want to get rich. )).

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by Willy702

White Hills is actually in play now due to the bridge and fast route around BC. Its less than an hour to Henderson. Pahrump will be a tougher sell due to the increasing traffic on Blue Diamond but it's always been an option. This isn't speculation, it's just growth. I think especially for retirees living in Arizona is fine, WFH types might prefer the Nevada tax.

In any case the growth is inevitable. Valley is getting close to filled in. The more distant areas will eventually get built out and more close in locations will finally gentrify and be worth a lot more.

Interesting about White Hills being in play again. Makes sense with the bridge and bypass, like you said.

One point of disagreement: In order for the inner areas of a metropolitan area to "gentrify" there has to be a "buy in" and demand from professional types who want to be close to the urban core.

If, and when, this does happen, it means that the lower class people will be pushed out to the margins of the metropolitan area in question -- to Mesquite, White Hills, Pahrump, Laughlin, Coyote Springs, Indian Springs, etc.

For various reasons, I don't see this being the case with the Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV/AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area.

For one, there isn't a push for white collar workers and executive types to live close to Fremont Street or The Strip. They seem to be very content living in Summerlin or Seven Hills.

Unless Pahrump, Mesquite, Coyote Springs and White Hills start building lots of low-income apartment complexes and have transit service back into the city, the lower classes aren't going to move out there to the fringes.

In other words, I don't see Pahrump or Mesquite becoming a Victorville anytime soon.

EDIT: Actually, yeah, Pahrump could become Las Vegas' version of Victorville.

[RocketRider]

Just remember 2006 real estate was followed shortly after by 2008. A lot of people bought at the wrong time of the boom and took it in the shorts when the market went into free fall. We could be looking at similar but milder coming up if inflation doesn't slow down a bit. Consumer Price Index month to month is getting scary.

bob

[apple92680]

Originally Posted by RocketRider

Just remember 2006 real estate was followed shortly after by 2008. A lot of people bought at the wrong time of the boom and took it in the shorts when the market went into free fall. We could be looking at similar but milder coming up if inflation doesn't slow down a bit. Consumer Price Index month to month is getting scary.

bob

That's sort of what I was alluding to in my original post...

[airics]

Originally Posted by RocketRider

Just remember 2006 real estate was followed shortly after by 2008. A lot of people bought at the wrong time of the boom and took it in the shorts when the market went into free fall. We could be looking at similar but milder coming up if inflation doesn't slow down a bit. Consumer Price Index month to month is getting scary.

bob

except that no doc loans are nearly nonexistent.... the rise in the interest rate might slow it down a bit, but I doubt it... people that only can afford a 200k house are not looking at Vegas.

[mitchmiller9]

One of the best measures of how expensive the real estate market, is the rent vs own ratio. Economist Magazine was warning the rent vs own ratio was getting out of line by late 2005. They continued to sound the siren right up until the crash.

Today, rents are skyrocketing right along with real estate prices. Most investors will get at least a 5% rate of return even on overpriced homes.

Also, prices aren't rising everywhere. I'm moving to Philly. Prices there have actually declined in the more affluent neighborhoods, likely due to work-from-home.