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OK I had to post this, because of all of the doom and gloomers out there. Except me and Olecapt, it seems most do not understand the dynamics of real estate and local economies. Just some brief info - much of the money flowing into Vegas for these high-rises is international money, and with the cheap dollar, is it a great incentive for them. If things did get worse, international investors will invest more. Investors will ride the storm, things will progress. Smart investors are investing now. Dubai owns a 50% share in City Center. Cosmopolitan was bailed out from default. Go look at the dozens and dozens of cranes now in Vegas!!!! Those of you who think these billion dollar projects, already under construction, will just stop, are wrong.
First, no economy is fully immune, but some will do better than others, such as Las Vegas. The building boom continues. Tourism from China and other Asian countries is expected to rise atronomically through 2020 as China's economy continues to open up. If any of you lived here, you might realize your statements are false. The residential slump and the commercial boom on the Strip can co-exist. What happens is, the Strip creates all the new jobs, fueled by international tourism (US dollar is also cheap, with helps them), and then just the 150,000 new jobs created through 2012, will help elminate residential housing supply as those people need to live somewhere... etc.. Oh btw, over 3.4 million visitors came to Las Vegas in February, an increase from January. It is the #1 travel destination in the USA. Source for above paragraph - LV Review Journal.
I just ask the non-resident doom and gloomers to stop posting this erroneous information. You comments are just based on your own insecurities and imaginations. Thing are not that bad - the media should not be your source of information.
I just love how the doom and gloomers, based on some article in the newspaper or other form of media they happened to see, start posting garbage, most of who do not understand business cycles, who do not understand how to invest in anything. Did you know there is a bull market somewhere, in every recession? Another quick point - we are transitioning into a world economy, that is inevitable. And it has some pains. But the cities that will do well, are those that are international game players....
If you have questions about what is going on with Las Vegas real estate, please ask Olecapt, jpk or myself. Don't assume anything. We live here and we know real estate and what is going on.
We can provide you with un-biased accurate information. Do your research, everything I have said here is true and accurate.
Location: central, between Pepe's Tacos and Roberto's
2,086 posts, read 6,848,281 times
Reputation: 958
Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas_4u
Ok thanks - airics is in too -- he's not a doom and gloomer.
So now we have myself, airics, jpk and olecapt....
You certainly think highly of yourself, don't you?
Can you tell me how much inventory is currently on the market? What the median income in LV is? Median home price? How many units moved in Feb. 2008? How many of those were O/O? Investments? Cash sales? Short sales? REO's? What the new FHA limit is for LV? Percentage of FC's in 2007 that were NOO? How about the spread between mortgage rates and FNMA bonds? How about the 10 yr Treasury Bond and it's inverted yield curve? All of these things have a profound affect on the LV RE market, and without knowledge of these things and many more, one cannot even remotely begin to try and accurately forecast what will happen with the market, let alone explain what is happening to the market currently.
I agree with you about the doom and gloomers, but you shouldn't put yourself on a pedestal about something like this, especially when there are professionals on this forum that will call you out on it.
You certainly think highly of yourself, don't you?
Can you tell me how much inventory is currently on the market? What the median income in LV is? Median home price? How many units moved in Feb. 2008? How many of those were O/O? Investments? Cash sales? Short sales? REO's? What the new FHA limit is for LV? Percentage of FC's in 2007 that were NOO? How about the spread between mortgage rates and FNMA bonds? How about the 10 yr Treasury Bond and it's inverted yield curve? All of these things have a profound affect on the LV RE market, and without knowledge of these things and many more, one cannot even remotely begin to try and accurately forecast what will happen with the market, let alone explain what is happening to the market currently.
I agree with you about the doom and gloomers, but you shouldn't put yourself on a pedestal about something like this, especially when there are professionals on this forum that will call you out on it.
Can you tell me how much inventory is currently on the market? What the median income in LV is? Median home price? How many units moved in Feb. 2008? How many of those were O/O? Investments? Cash sales? Short sales? REO's? What the new FHA limit is for LV? Percentage of FC's in 2007 that were NOO? How about the spread between mortgage rates and FNMA bonds? How about the 10 yr Treasury Bond and it's inverted yield curve?
I agree with you about the doom and gloomers, but you shouldn't put yourself on a pedestal about something like this, especially when there are professionals on this forum that will call you out on it.
Whew, fortunately, I am a professional. I guess I should have posted my resume before even typing anything. I have been investing in real estate since 2000, and I also have a broker, in the business for over 30 years in Nevada, who has educated me on every loan I have done. You are right, there are tons of stats out there. You do realize much of that info above is available on the MLS, such as inventory, units sold, etc. and my broker pulls that information up for me whenever I need it, anytime.......
Im going to end with my catch phrases that I have used in multiple posts:
No economy is 100% immune to a recession or downturn, but some economies, like Vegas, will do better than others. A residential slump and a commercial Strip boom market can co-exist, as it is now. Eventually, once the large mega projects start opening in late 2009, the massive labor influx will filter over into the residential market via demand for purchases and/or rentals. Vegas is a unique market, especially with booming tourism numbers and foreign investments, thanks in part to the cheap US dollar. It is very interesting. fyi, just had to post one detail to add to this - 3.4 million people visited Las Vegas in February, an increase from January., source, LV Review Journal.. there's a stat for you. Las Vegas is by far the most unique city in the USA, it is an international player in a new world economy..... it will all be ok, patience my friends............
Did this post have to do with me posting the link to the Mortgage Mess? Evidently I must have been the one to push your trigger this morning. I DON'T come on here and bash the market, I come on here to read everything I can to make the best decision I can for me and my family.
I've stated before I would move to Vegas in a minute if I could. I had to take my last promotion that will benifit me significantly in my 'Golden Years'. If not for that, I would be moving there this summer.
I've met my real estate agent,went through everything, and as mentioned have to wait for a little longer. Do I think that prices will continue to fall in areas of Las Vegas, yes I do. If I buy a home for 350K in Las Vegas now do I feel it could be worth less in two years? Yes I do. But I'm not moving there for 2 years, I'm moving there for what I plan to be the rest of my life. Our kids (2 out of 3) will be gone and the youngest soon to follow.
I hope all you wrote in this thread and the others wasn't posted for me vegas_4u. I don't want to live in some 250K property that may fall lower. I don't want to live in a community that has renters in and out all the time. That's not a community for me. If you can make a few bucks renting your homes to people that can't get a loan or aren't ready for other reasons to buy...good for you. I've read on here for months now that these properties are moving. THis is no surprise.
I apologize if you took this personal, it certainly wasn't intended to be. It was just another post about the mortgage mess. And right after Bear Stearns just about went belly up. It's information.
My Agent has been completely honest and upfront during the entire time. It's not his fault I haven't bought. I firmly believe after reading in here for over a year, that Real Estate is Local. I believe that about Las Vegas. Doesn't mean to jump in when I am not ready or comfortable, just means I feel comfortable about buying when my job allows me.
Sorry for the long post, But I did take your comments berating everyone but the 4 of you in Las Vegas personal. You make money, good for you. Don't forget because of the mortgage mess, tightening of credit, people who have been foreclosed upon, etc... that is the reason why you can rent your houses. Someone's misery allowed you to buy the property you did to make that 8 to 12 percent.
Here's a different perspective from another doom and gloomer
"It would be unsophisticated to think Las Vegas is a magical island unto itself, immune from the effects of the communities that serve it and its visitors" -Steve Wynn, February 2008
OK I had to post this, because of all of the doom and gloomers out there. Except me and Olecapt, it seems most do not understand the dynamics of real estate and local economies. Just some brief info - much of the money flowing into Vegas for these high-rises is international money, and with the cheap dollar, is it a great incentive for them. If things did get worse, international investors will invest more. Investors will ride the storm, things will progress. Smart investors are investing now. Dubai owns a 50% share in City Center. Cosmopolitan was bailed out from default. Go look at the dozens and dozens of cranes now in Vegas!!!! Those of you who think these billion dollar projects, already under construction, will just stop, are wrong.
First, no economy is fully immune, but some will do better than others, such as Las Vegas. The building boom continues. Tourism from China and other Asian countries is expected to rise atronomically through 2020 as China's economy continues to open up. If any of you lived here, you might realize your statements are false. The residential slump and the commercial boom on the Strip can co-exist. What happens is, the Strip creates all the new jobs, fueled by international tourism (US dollar is also cheap, with helps them), and then just the 150,000 new jobs created through 2012, will help elminate residential housing supply as those people need to live somewhere... etc.. Oh btw, over 3.4 million visitors came to Las Vegas in February, an increase from January. It is the #1 travel destination in the USA. Source for above paragraph - LV Review Journal.
I just ask the non-resident doom and gloomers to stop posting this erroneous information. You comments are just based on your own insecurities and imaginations. Thing are not that bad - the media should not be your source of information.
I just love how the doom and gloomers, based on some article in the newspaper or other form of media they happened to see, start posting garbage, most of who do not understand business cycles, who do not understand how to invest in anything. Did you know there is a bull market somewhere, in every recession? Another quick point - we are transitioning into a world economy, that is inevitable. And it has some pains. But the cities that will do well, are those that are international game players....
If you have questions about what is going on with Las Vegas real estate, please ask Olecapt, jpk or myself. Don't assume anything. We live here and we know real estate and what is going on.
We can provide you with un-biased accurate information. Do your research, everything I have said here is true and accurate.
"It would be unsophisticated to think Las Vegas is a magical island unto itself, immune from the effects of the communities that serve it and its visitors" -Steve Wynn, February 2008
Of course, makes sense. But this is not doom and gloom. This is realistic, which is what I have been saying. Again, I repeat myself - No economy is immune to a recession or slump, but some economies will do better than others as we ride the storm. Vegas is an international player now, with the weak dollar fueling commercial Strip foreign investment, (Strip construction is booming now, if you were here right now, you could see the cranes yourself from mega-billion dollar projects, City Center, Echelon, Cosmopolitan, high-rise condos, hotels, convention centers, casinos, shopping, World Market Center, restaurants, etc. etc. etc.). It is unreal. fyi - Dubai has a 50% stake in City Center. All this stuff is already under construction, and will be completed between 2009 and 2012. If you recall, the Stardust and the Frontier were imploded recently, and these are two of the sites of the multi-billion dollar mixed used urban projects. If some projects lose funding mid-construction, they will find alternative funding, as Cosmopolitan did. Someone bailed them out, and construction is continuing. There is HUGE foreign investment here. So, 150,000 new jobs coming down the pipeline through 2012... that is the key to this... plus there are still 5,000 or so moving here every month, to start new lives in Vegas...
And tourism is actually up as far as visitor count in Feb over Jan, but yes, people are spending less, that is the bad part. So some revenues will drop for now, and some businesses will fail. And the residential suburb market is in a bad slump in Vegas too, for the moment. Now is the time to buy; predicting rock bottom is pointless, you either get in the game during the turmoil of great deals out there, or not.....and then you ride the wave. Btw, I predict this is the bottom, but prices aren't going up anytime soon. So you have more time. But watch what happens in mid 2009 and beyond when the mega-projects start hiring, and opening...... patience my friends.....
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Here's a different perspective from another doom and gloomer
