Los Angeles Gets Serious About Its Downtown-WSJ ARTICLE (condo, buying)

[jamills21]

Ace Hotel in all it's glory


This is why Downtown is awesome and has a chance to be one of the best in the US. As a lifelong Angeleno, DTLA is the reason why I LOVE this city. DTLA is such a gem and I am soooooooo proud that we are the generation who wants to be the model for urbanization across the US. DTLA is something very special and there are more and even better gems then the Ace Hotel on Broadway. A rejuvenated Broadway is the best thing that can ever happen to this beautiful but misunderstood city. People might not agree with me, but I think LA is having a "Parisian" moment, so to say. There is an air of sophistication that I don't think we have had in the past and the Day/Night vibe is almost a mix of NYC, Paris, & Berlin. You may not see it now, but DTLA will be a force in the cultural fabric of America and might be the greatest American renaissance of the early 21st century. /endrant

[fedricklawson]

No link for this one. It's the issue with Bradley Cooper on the cover.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives

I doubt it.

As DTLA continues to polish up, prices for condos will only increase. They're already high now, even though the more urbane amenities commonly associated with the Westside have yet to set up shop. They're on their way though, make no mistake about it.

The question is--how far will the new/retrofitted housing stretch? Could the entire freeway loop turn residential within 20 years? With the LA river restoration, I think it's a distinct possibility.

If current sales were a healthy organic market...that is one with a traditional mix of first time buyers and move up buyers...I'd agree with prices beig supported at current levels.

The fact that not one developer is building a condo or loft for sale building speaks volumes. Even one for sale building at current price levels would crush the market with oversupply. I'm the first to admit that priced at $350kper unit, they'd sell out in an hour. But at $500k-1million? Not so much.

[ProjectMersh]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

No, it's not and it won't.

The downtown condo market is gamed and rigged bad at the moment.

I point to to non sale of the Garfield Building, the one across the street from it, and also the vacant building at 7th/grand(or is it Olive?) as proof. The new rentals coming in are going to depress rents, if say six buildings(instead of three) went up in the next two years it would crush rents.

Already you have essex purposely holding units off market to keep rents high, the market is at saturation in DTLA and additional units will drive rents down over the next two years.

I was referring to the condo/for sale market, not the rental market.

Amid Apartment Boom, a Shortage of Condos - Los Angeles Downtown News - For Everything Downtown L.A.!: News

Based on your comments above (post 63) about the for sale market I think we are on the same page. Though not sure I follow you regarding a rigged game in the condo market? You think the owners/developers are colluding to rig the for sale market in DTLA?

[high density]

does downtown la feel big like downtown chicago, i have already looked at it on google maps but would like perspective of a local.

[hjt123]

Originally Posted by high density

does downtown la feel big like downtown chicago, i have already looked at it on google maps but would like perspective of a local.

Downtown doesn't have the scale of the loop, but unlike the loop, it's much more than a CBD.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by ProjectMersh

I was referring to the condo/for sale market, not the rental market.

Amid Apartment Boom, a Shortage of Condos - Los Angeles Downtown News - For Everything Downtown L.A.!: News

Based on your comments above (post 63) about the for sale market I think we are on the same page. Though not sure I follow you regarding a rigged game in the condo market? You think the owners/developers are colluding to rig the for sale market in DTLA?

I think the banks still own a few hundred and are slowly releasing them to prop prices.

There's still 5 buildings actively for sale that can be converted to lofts, starting with the one across the street from the Bristol/golden gopher. With current pricing, there's something else discouraging the developers. I contend that "something" is that current market conditions won't support current pricing for an entire building.

[ProjectMersh]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

I think the banks still own a few hundred and are slowly releasing them to prop prices.

There's still 5 buildings actively for sale that can be converted to lofts, starting with the one across the street from the Bristol/golden gopher. With current pricing, there's something else discouraging the developers. I contend that "something" is that current market conditions won't support current pricing for an entire building.

What about the 421 units Barry Shy is considering converting to condos? I realize he could release these in phases. Given his shoddy devleopment track record Shy won't be selling top of the line units for the highest prices. Though with the smaller unit sizes in his buildings he may realize relatively high prices PSF.

Developer Barry Shy Converting 421 Rentals to Condos in Downtown LA? | DTLA RISING

If you owned a loft/condo in downtown would you be a net seller today or would you continue to hold for the medium to long-term?

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by ProjectMersh

What about the 421 units Barry Shy is considering converting to condos? I realize he could release these in phases. Given his shoddy devleopment track record Shy won't be selling top of the line units for the highest prices. Though with the smaller unit sizes in his buildings he may realize relatively high prices PSF.

Developer Barry Shy Converting 421 Rentals to Condos in Downtown LA? | DTLA RISING

If you owned a loft/condo in downtown would you be a net seller today or would you continue to hold for the medium to long-term?

I'm not an investor so holding/not holding doesn't factor in for me. As far as living in DTLA, I'd rent and it's not even a close call. Buying is WAY more expensive right now, even in the inflated rental places...never mind places like Blackstone where you can rent at $1500-1650/mo. And of course that's the dilemma for an investor...how do you pay the bills for however long you are cash flow negative. It's an odd spot for an investor IMO.

I was unaware of the Barry Shy conversions, and it will be interesting to see what happens in light of his shortcomings as you point out.

[DistrictDirt]

Originally Posted by ProjectMersh

What about the 421 units Barry Shy is considering converting to condos? I realize he could release these in phases. Given his shoddy devleopment track record Shy won't be selling top of the line units for the highest prices. Though with the smaller unit sizes in his buildings he may realize relatively high prices PSF.

Developer Barry Shy Converting 421 Rentals to Condos in Downtown LA? | DTLA RISING

If you owned a loft/condo in downtown would you be a net seller today or would you continue to hold for the medium to long-term?

I'm holding mine for the long haul. DTLA feels very much to me like SoHo in the 1980s. Anyone who owns real estate down here would be nuts to sell right now. This is still very much the ground floor.