Future of MA (Boston, Cambridge, Wellesley: apartments, homes, public school)

[ChunkyMonkey]

Must have been a slow news day. The article is just filler. The sky is not falling... one year does not make a trend, especially when it comes to census ESTIMATES. It is well known that estimates are way off, especially for older established cities with lots of rehabs.
For example, in 1999 the census estimated Mass. population at 6175169. In 2000, the real census is 6,349,097. Did Massachusetts gained almost 174,000 people in 1 year. Unlikely... it just reflected the undercount.
http://www.census.gov/population/est...te/st-99-3.txt

In 2006, Boston even challenged the census that admitted undercounting Boston's population.
Menino was right: Census estimate wrong, Hub gained population - Local News Updates - The Boston Globe

Even if you believe in the census numbers. Here's some perspective, Massachusetts population from the U.S. census:
2000 6,349,097
2006 6,437,193

Massachusetts - Population Finder - American FactFinder

Last time I checked, that means growth of over 88,000. It is not much, but still growth.

Numbers also reflect the nationwide trend of exodus to far flung exburbs. In this instance, Boston's exburbs are NH and RI. So, the sky is NOT falling.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by ChunkyMonkey

Must have been a slow news day. The article is just filler. The sky is not falling... one year does not make a trend, especially when it comes to census ESTIMATES. It is well known that estimates are way off, especially for older established cities with lots of rehabs.
For example, in 1999 the census estimated Mass. population at 6175169. In 2000, the real census is 6,349,097. Did Massachusetts gained almost 174,000 people in 1 year. Unlikely... it just reflected the undercount.
http://www.census.gov/population/est...te/st-99-3.txt

In 2006, Boston even challenged the census that admitted undercounting Boston's population.
Menino was right: Census estimate wrong, Hub gained population - Local News Updates - The Boston Globe

Even if you believe in the census numbers. Here's some perspective, Massachusetts population from the U.S. census:
2000 6,349,097
2006 6,437,193

Massachusetts - Population Finder - American FactFinder

Last time I checked, that means growth of over 88,000. It is not much, but still growth.

Numbers also reflect the nationwide trend of exodus to far flung exburbs. In this instance, Boston's exburbs are NH and RI. So, the sky is NOT falling.

You are correct the sky it not falling. I more like a balloon letting the air slowly. Every time I home and I'm around town talking to people I not hearing "happy talk". Basically the word on the street it North/South Carolina and Northern Virginia are the hotspot for both retirees and young professionals. Both of these groups seem to believe that there is more opportunity for them. Whether this is true on not remains to be seen. Granted I can vouch for N. Virgina. It really grown up down there with business around D.C. And if your a out doors type of person it got plenty of outdoor actives pretty much year round.
And your right one year doesn't make a trend. So you and I will have to just keep any eye open for the next couple of years to see what really happening.
Like I said I hope people leave and will allow for the price of real estate to lower and to also hopefully lower the general cost of living there. So I can return home with out breaking the bank.

[LeavingMA]

The issue with MA's population is that your losing young families and young professionals and replacing them with uneducated immigrants. I don't think it is a "sky is falling" type of thing yet, but it is something the state should worry about. You can't continue to lose your young families and young professionals to other states, especially if many are going just to New Hampshire to work and live.

[penandpaper]

The only other places with higher/the same housing costs (in general) are California, New York, and DC area.

[ChunkyMonkey]

Originally Posted by LeavingMA

The issue with MA's population is that your losing young families and young professionals and replacing them with uneducated immigrants. I don't think it is a "sky is falling" type of thing yet, but it is something the state should worry about. You can't continue to lose your young families and young professionals to other states, especially if many are going just to New Hampshire to work and live.

I agree with you on that. However, a lot of the young families and professionals left during the weak economic cycle in Mass. People leave for jobs. If you have a good paying job, you'll more likely to stay. The one important resource that Mass has is its huge number of universities and colleges which continue to expand at a rapid clip. Harvard is planning to double in size, MIT has already started expanding, same with Northeastern, Tufts, BU and BC. All of these expansions will naturally bring new young families and young professionals along with students from all over the world. The key is to retain these professionals and students who naturally tend to want to move back home due to familiarity. If the state can force towns to build more and coupled with strong economic cycle, you'll see Mass. do well.

[CaseyB]

Force towns to build more what?

[LeavingMA]

Good paying jobs definitely help, but they still need to account for the high cost of living. And if your a company who needs to pay employees say $60k when you could pay them $50k somewhere else, there is less incentive to keep your company in MA. Added to salary costs are business costs, which are also very pricey here.
You still need to find a way to keep students after college and also have private companies coming here.

[smarty]

Couldn't agree with you more... ChunkyMonkey...

One other thing that the government should do... roads and public transportations.

There are plenty of land in MA to keep the real estate price down. You realized that the state seems to drop off after Worcester. Subway should not be stopped in Newton. Problem is no easy public transporataion access to west (beyond Rt128) and between North/South. I wish the government would do something.... light rail, bus/road, expand T-subway, ...

Can one imagine if BART stops at Berkeley, CA and have commuter rail from all the other towns.

[neil0311]

You guys keep making this all about economics and demographics. While there is definitely an economic and dempgraphic component involved, many people are making a decision to move simply based simply on quality of life, of which economics is an important (but not the only) factor.

I heard many of the same things from my friends and others living in MA before and now after we moved. People are not only tired of the high cost of housing, but also the wacky politics, poor weather, dicey schools, the poor conditions of roads (potholes, heaves, etc).

Since I kept my same job, it wasn't about a job. It was about wanting a better quality of life for myself and my family. I had no trouble supporting my family in MA, but I could do much better elsewhere, and not feel alienated by the politics.

[pjscdn]

Originally Posted by smarty

Couldn't agree with you more... ChunkyMonkey...

There are plenty of land in MA to keep the real estate price down. You realized that the state seems to drop off after Worcester.

I beg to differ here. I sense part of the reason for the high cost of housing is the scarcity of desirable and buildable land left in the eastern part of the state. If a family wants a decent lot with their home, the land cost here is very high in comparison with other areas of the country, and I don't think we want to repeat the mega-sprawl prevalent in other highly populated areas. Sure, there's most open space as one moves westward, but much of the appeal of living in the state is close proximity to Boston. Tough call any way you look at it.