Housing Bubble - Massachusetts (Boston, Harvard: employment, professionals, area)

[mdovell]

This also reminds me of the big difference between public and private construction. Public mandates bonding on pretty low levels. 149/149A requires that from 100K up. I've attended some planning classes where they kinda recommended it for private at 1m+ uh...that's a huge gap.

Sometimes you can tell of bubbles by small things, not large. I used to work for Lowe's. When the state changed the law that all homes had to have monoxide detectors that was one thing. When they mandated it if you had to sell a house they flew off the shelves. This was in '07. At that point I knew sellers are outnumbering buyers and then the lower sales from contractors meant less construction etc.

Again I don't think Boston is in a bubble. At the same point we should also talk about commercial real estate. It's totally different. I think we ARE in a bubble of retailers. In an era of online shopping they just kept making it. Redevelopment of a house is simple. Change the look, the lights, new sinks, new room there's a ton of things that can add value to a house. How do you do that for a mall? What about a box store :-/ A neighborhood convenience store could probably be an apartment. But on a larger scale it's hard to say. How long is it going to take to redevelop Filene's?

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by mdovell

How do you do that for a mall? What about a box store :-/ A neighborhood convenience store could probably be an apartment. But on a larger scale it's hard to say. How long is it going to take to redevelop Filene's?

This is a whole different discussion. Department stores are dying. Their heyday was about 100 years ago. They were *the* place to go, where you could buy everything you needed and see exotic things that had been brought in from around the world. They had restaurants in them so you could have lunch there, needing a break from seeing all of these goods that weren't available any other way.

They've been slowly dying now for decades. Many of them have gotten rid of so many departments that they are little or nothing more than clothing stores. Sad in some ways, but inevitable. There would be no way for a store that was a true department store to survive in today's economy.

That said, bricks and mortar retail is never going away. Filene's isn't coming back but something else will go in those spaces. It will probably be more specialty oriented. Maybe food oriented. There are always going to be physical stores. Some things are needed right away. Some people need to feel and see an item before buying. And there is a social interaction component to shopping that isn't replicated online.

A big space that once contained a Filene's could be made into some sort of mixed use area, combining dining, retail, and residential space, as well as business/services spaces.

[Shrewsburried]

NPR today: Boston lost 17K skilled tech workers in past 4 years to other cities such as San Fran and Seattle.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

NPR today: Boston lost 17K skilled tech workers in past 4 years to other cities such as San Fran and Seattle.

Well that's a bit of a misleading statement. It isn't like we're losing jobs, its just that we're creating these employees with our many great academic institutions faster than the market can take them in, but the market is expanding too. It's a pretty good problem, not a bad one like most brain drains.

[Ninotchka P]

The same article blamed, in part, the high price of housing. As if people are moving to San Francisco for cheaper housing. Well researched article there.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by Ninotchka P

The same article blamed, in part, the high price of housing. As if people are moving to San Francisco for cheaper housing. Well researched article there.

Did it really? Have they seen what housing goes for in SF? And, from what I understand, Seattle is quite pricey as well. If we suddenly started losing tech people to Kansas City and Nashville, that would be one thing. But Seattle and S.F. have many of the same problems Boston does. (And the Juan de Fuca plate is going to go one of these days and create a huge earthquake and Tsunami, which we don't have to worry about here in Boston.)

[Ninotchka P]

Although we have some tectonic plates of our own here.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by Ninotchka P

Although we have some tectonic plates of our own here.

I had heard that there could be a potential for a tsunami generated out near the Canary Islands which would totally f*ck the East Coast, but the odds of that are low. But they're waiting for this one in the Pacific.

[Ninotchka P]

I was referring to the fact that there have been earthquakes here. There was one a few years ago in Bar Harbor, and a small one in Massachesetts last year. Cape Ann had an over 6.0 earthquake in the 1700's.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by Ninotchka P

I was referring to the fact that there have been earthquakes here. There was one a few years ago in Bar Harbor, and a small one in Massachesetts last year. Cape Ann had an over 6.0 earthquake in the 1700's.

I know they happen every once in a while, but I'm not too concerned about them.