Is It a Given the Real Estate Market in Massachusetts Will Crash Within 5 Years? (Boston: apartments, insurance)

[tysmith95]

Originally Posted by chicagoliz

Generally, I agree. Even during the 2008 crash, most places within 128 didn't lose value. The worst case was that they held their value. But then, they started climbing again. Far outside 128 is, indeed, tricker. They will be the first to crash if there is a crash. But, I'm not so sure even that will happen in this area. Even if the country as a whole has a recession and there is a nationwide housing crash, there still seems to be solid job production and even growth in this area during those times. The reasons that people are getting pushed out beyond not just 128 but 495 will still be present, even if not to as great an extent. But insofar as the risk goes, the further away you are from Boston/Cambridge, the riskier it will be. I do think the risk will remain low, though.

Past results are not an accurate predictor of future performance.

[yellowstatus]

Silly questions get silly answers

[Shrewsburried]

IMO, we're approaching peak pricing thanks to a decade of QE, low rates, and a robust local economy - capital is cheap. Does this indicate a crash? Not so much. I suspect stagnation is more likely, with upper end properties perhaps seeing a correction down as borrowing becomes more costly.

We're about to reach peak housing come 2020-22 as gen-Y hits home buyer age and a huge number of gen X and Boomers age in place. This influx of buyers and rising rates is likely to exacerbate a pre-existing issue - limited entry level housing in central/eastern MA. Add to this the concentration of high wage jobs in urban anchor cities and, well ... I'm glad I bought 3 years ago (even though at the time I lamented not buying in '09).

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by tysmith95

Past results are not an accurate predictor of future performance.

How else to we learn but from history? Of course what has happened before isn't guaranteed to happen again. But when something happens enough times, it becomes increasingly foolhardy to blindly believe things will be different the next time around.

Of course things can and do change. There are no guarantees that anything in particular will happen. But the most prudent investors will take into account all the evidence, a large part of which is what has happened in similar situations previously.

A few days ago I tried a new recipe. It was a success. I have greater confidence that if I make the same recipe again that it will be a success -- more confidence than I had a few days ago. But it is certainly possible it could be a spectacular failure.

[MikePRU]

Originally Posted by redplum33

No, it's not a given. Nobody can predict the future.

Personally, I think this reply says it all. Nobody knows what the future will bring. The real estate market historically has run in cycles. A long term graph of market values is a continuous succession of peaks and valleys. So, at some point the market will turn. No one can tell you when that will happen. No one can tell you how severe the turn will be or how fast it will be either.

[mdovell]

I doubt it. The concrete issue in CT/western/Central Mass is in the tens of thousands of homes. If they have to walk away to find somewhere else that could very well be over 100K people looking for a place to live. I see more development of gateway cities in Mass, just look at Quincy in the past 20 years. Yeah not that exciting but still the location and the waterfront add up.

Cape prices I think might drop but not the mainland technically.

Also look at what Vermont just did. If you can work remotely in VT for an out of state place the state will pay you 10K in a two year span. It could help.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Also look at what Vermont just did. If you can work remotely in VT for an out of state place the state will pay you 10K in a two year span. It could help.

I just saw a thread on this in the Real Estate section. It doesn't seem to me that $10K is enough. But it's an interesting idea, and I think Vermont is well-positioned to pursue this kind of strategy. They've limited it, though, to 100 people and then 20 people per year after that. Not sure, really, how much of an uptick they'll get from this.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by tysmith95

Past results are not an accurate predictor of future performance.

This forum is just dumb about this whole housing issue. No point in talking to most people here.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by chicagoliz

How else to we learn but from history? Of course what has happened before isn't guaranteed to happen again. But when something happens enough times, it becomes increasingly foolhardy to blindly believe things will be different the next time around.

Of course things can and do change. There are no guarantees that anything in particular will happen. But the most prudent investors will take into account all the evidence, a large part of which is what has happened in similar situations previously.

A few days ago I tried a new recipe. It was a success. I have greater confidence that if I make the same recipe again that it will be a success -- more confidence than I had a few days ago. But it is certainly possible it could be a spectacular failure.

Housing markets are like making a recipe with 10 million different ingredients though.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Housing markets are like making a recipe with 10 million different ingredients though.

The point is that past experience and knowledge of history is not irrelevant. The saying goes that those who are ignorant of history are condemned to repeat it. Ignore that at your peril.