Is It a Given the Real Estate Market in Massachusetts Will Crash Within 5 Years? (Boston: buying, to move)

[Japanfan1986]

Will it?

[redplum33]

No, it's not a given. Nobody can predict the future.

[chicagoliz]

Is it a given? No.

Is it a possibility? Yes, but I think a very, very unlikely one.

[wolfgang239]

There's an insignificant, yet non-zero chance for nearly everything.

[mwj119]

Massachusetts will crash if the real estate market across NA crashes. Otherwise, not a shot. About as bulletproof as it gets.. Diverse economy, high demand (for a Northern state), backbone of recession proof verticals.

[GeePee]

I look to the sky. When there is more than 2 cranes and multiple bigger to smaller scale developments going on I tend to think that these companies that invest hundreds of millions have done their research and are looking for a long term ROI. I think it's always a good indicator.

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by GeePee

I look to the sky. When there is more than 2 cranes and multiple bigger to smaller scale developments going on I tend to think that these companies that invest hundreds of millions have done their research and are looking for a long term ROI. I think it's always a good indicator.

Look at Las Vegas in 2007?

But basically we have a supply issue.

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by mwj119

Massachusetts will crash if the real estate market across NA crashes. Otherwise, not a shot.

Areas close in and with good access to Boston and desirable areas will almost certainly continue to chug along with all of the jobs being created or moved to the area. However I'd be wary in buying in many of locations outside of 128 right now. Interest rates are headed up and there will likely be a recession in the next 5 years (after all things are cyclical). These things will invariably have an impact on the housing market. We have friends who are looking to move outside of the city and a bit further north. They are getting outbid on properties in places like Billerica and North Reading that need a lot of work. It seems a bit frothy.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Areas close in and with good access to Boston and desirable areas will almost certainly continue to chug along with all of the jobs being created or moved to the area. However I'd be wary in buying in many of locations outside of 128 right now. Interest rates are headed up and there will likely be a recession in the next 5 years (after all things are cyclical). These things will invariably have an impact on the housing market. We have friends who are looking to move outside of the city and a bit further north. They are getting outbid on properties in places like Billerica and North Reading that need a lot of work. It seems a bit frothy.

Generally, I agree. Even during the 2008 crash, most places within 128 didn't lose value. The worst case was that they held their value. But then, they started climbing again. Far outside 128 is, indeed, tricker. They will be the first to crash if there is a crash. But, I'm not so sure even that will happen in this area. Even if the country as a whole has a recession and there is a nationwide housing crash, there still seems to be solid job production and even growth in this area during those times. The reasons that people are getting pushed out beyond not just 128 but 495 will still be present, even if not to as great an extent. But insofar as the risk goes, the further away you are from Boston/Cambridge, the riskier it will be. I do think the risk will remain low, though.

[SunnyinBoston]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MASTHPI

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