Everyone seems to be preparing for the zombie apocalypse (Boston: school, prices)

[Bridge781]

There’s nothing wrong with stocking up but this thing is spreading like the cold or flu it seems. It’s going to spread and it is spreading. I’m not sure closing grocery stores if it comes to that will do much good.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Death rate from data seen in korea also suggests the real mortality rate is less than 1%. Maybe even 0.5%. They are doing widespread testing there.

While better than the 1.7-2.8% coming out of China, it's still 5-10X+ the average influenza season. That could very well overwhelm current bed count depending on the region and concentration. I don't think it will happen, but it is a "known unknown".

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

While better than the 1.7-2.8% coming out of China, it's still 5-10X+ the average influenza season. That could very well overwhelm current bed count depending on the region and concentration. I don't think it will happen, but it is a "known unknown".

I agree with your last sentence.

Just thinking through the math here...after some quick googling it looks like the three major Partners hospitals plus BMC has about 3,000 beds.

Assuming an occupancy rate of 90% leaves 300 beds available and assume only 1/3 of those beds are available to serious coronavirus cases. There would be more beds available than the total number of reported cases in the U.S. as of this writing.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

There would be more beds available than the total number of reported cases in the U.S. as of this writing.

Hopefully it stays that way.


China's situation was terrible. They had no idea what was coming and by the time they caught on it was too late. VERY dense city and probably spread for nearly 2 months before coming to light.

Rest of the world has a heads up, and was on alert. Maybe there was some mismanagement, but I see a lot of changes in behavior from people these days. More hand washing, more remote working, social distancing, etc. I'm sure if more cases popped up in a region, people would pull back even more.

I'm paying close attention to the numbers of some of the western nations to see if they can get a handle on it, and if there is a peak at a FAR lower number than what we saw in CHina.


Iran might take the worst of this. It must be really widespread for political leaders to be coming down with it. Really hope the rumors of worshippers still licking relics is untrue.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Hopefully it stays that way.


China's situation was terrible. They had no idea what was coming and by the time they caught on it was too late. VERY dense city and probably spread for nearly 2 months before coming to light.

Rest of the world has a heads up, and was on alert. Maybe there was some mismanagement, but I see a lot of changes in behavior from people these days. More hand washing, more remote working, social distancing, etc. I'm sure if more cases popped up in a region, people would pull back even more.

I'm paying close attention to the numbers of some of the western nations to see if they can get a handle on it, and if there is a peak at a FAR lower number than what we saw in CHina.


Iran might take the worst of this. It must be really widespread for political leaders to be coming down with it. Really hope the rumors of worshippers still licking relics is untrue.

What about the blarney stone?

If the death rate is 1-2% and Iran's numbers are higher that either means a higher elderly population or they aren't reporting the full figures.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by mdovell

What about the blarney stone?

If the death rate is 1-2% and Iran's numbers are higher that either means a higher elderly population or they aren't reporting the full figures.

Not that I have any sort of inside info on the subject, but I believe it's more of the latter.

According to:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

Iran has almost 300 people recovered. I've seen reports stating that it takes 3-6 weeks to recover. They have the second highest number of recoveries after china. That suggests they had the virus in circulation for a while now, and the numbers of infected are far higher.

I also don't believe they had the ability to test until very recently. SO many a mix of not reporting and/or not having the ability to report.


But iran (and Italy and china) do have elderly populations as well. US does too. Where US does fair the best however is air quality, and a lower smoking rate for many.

[porterhouse]

Stocking up on essentials makes sense. Hoarding food does not (to me at least).

We bought more of things we will use anyway, including non perishable food, cleaning products, OTC and prescription medications, etc. We did not buy a palates of Spaghettios and other canned foods as we don't eat that stuff. Hopefully the worse case will require staying close to home for a few weeks. If not, I guess the preppers win...

One could retire if they were sitting on a cache of Purell. It's sort of amusing. FWIW for anyone worried they can't get hand sanitizer, just mix ISO alcohol with a bit of aloe and voila...

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Hopefully the worse case will require staying close to home for a few weeks.

If so, not sure how many people can pull that off. Some people have the luxury of living in the quiet 'burbs, with a 12-month safety net and good resources to fall back on and trees for neighbors. Others live paycheck to paycheck supporting a few kids and don't have resources to fall back on.

[RBThescot]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

Stocking up on essentials makes sense. Hoarding food does not (to me at least).
.

Food is pretty much an essential in my book. If you see me hoarding pieces of string or a big ball of used aluminum foil, maybe it's time for an intervention of some kind.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by porterhouse

One could retire if they were sitting on a cache of Purell. It's sort of amusing.

Amazon just removed over 1 million listings for not only price gouging but also false claims that the products will protect you from coronavirus.