Are there signs of people leaving Boston for cheaper parts of the state yet? (Worcester: sales, apartment)

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by Louisville Slugger

Providence comes to mind. Although not MA still within commuting distance by car or train. Providence is pretty good for the price.

The question is, why would someone looking to escape a dense Boston building/neighborhood due to Covid move to another dense urban area? Simply because it's cheaper? Not throwing shade on Providence here ... it's a great small city ... just questioning the logic of that move.

I think it's more likely a young family living in a condo/apartment in Boston/Cambridge will decide the cash out and by a 1+ acre property in a towns like Acton or Harvard. I'm already seeing this happen at a small scale in my own social sphere.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

The question is, why would someone looking to escape a dense Boston building/neighborhood due to Covid move to another dense urban area? Simply because it's cheaper?

I think so. Is that so weird? There are people that are actually just priced out of Boston but still want to live in a city. Providence is a small city but being part of a large urban area feels a larger. Not Boston but still urban.

[Louisville Slugger]

Originally Posted by Lampert

I think so. Is that so weird? There are people that are actually just priced out of Boston but still want to live in a city. Providence is a small city but being part of a large urban area feels a larger. Not Boston but still urban.

A couple people on my softball team are doing this. Everyone complains about the cost of living in Boston.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by Lampert

I think so. Is that so weird? There are people that are actually just priced out of Boston but still want to live in a city. Providence is a small city but being part of a large urban area feels a larger. Not Boston but still urban.

I think the motivation was there pre-Covid, but right now I'm not so sure of it.

Among older Millenials, the confluence of Covid-19 and peaking equality/demographic tensions is making dense urban areas a bit less appealing ... at least in this moment and especially for those considering children. This is particularly true for renters who might not have the quality of life of wealthier Bostonians.

This very well could mean buying a suburban-style house adjacent to urban areas, e.g., Belvedere in Lowell, Mines Falls in Nashua, Salisbury in Worcester, etc. Opinions on future WFH status are obviously a huge driver. Buyers are, IMO, likely to split the difference - SFH w/ yard, but immediate access to urban amenities once this blows over.

[simplexsimon]

Aren't rents in Boston falling? Or only for luxury apartments?

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

I think the motivation was there pre-Covid, but right now I'm not so sure of it.

Among older Millenials, the confluence of Covid-19 and peaking equality/demographic tensions is making dense urban areas a bit less appealing ... at least in this moment and especially for those considering children. This is particularly true for renters who might not have the quality of life of wealthier Bostonians.

This very well could mean buying a suburban-style house adjacent to urban areas, e.g., Belvedere in Lowell, Mines Falls in Nashua, Salisbury in Worcester, etc. Opinions on future WFH status are obviously a huge driver. Buyers are, IMO, likely to split the difference - SFH w/ yard, but immediate access to urban amenities once this blows over.

Yeah, if you are talking about right now things are messy. But honestly I don't think covid is going to have an impact on long term housing term and the protests can have an impact only if they turn into a persistent increase in violent crime, at the moment the data are very confused (homicides up in many cities but violent crimes overall down in the same cities) most likely again because of covid.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

I think the motivation was there pre-Covid, but right now I'm not so sure of it.

Among older Millenials, the confluence of Covid-19 and peaking equality/demographic tensions is making dense urban areas a bit less appealing ... at least in this moment and especially for those considering children. This is particularly true for renters who might not have the quality of life of wealthier Bostonians.

This very well could mean buying a suburban-style house adjacent to urban areas, e.g., Belvedere in Lowell, Mines Falls in Nashua, Salisbury in Worcester, etc. Opinions on future WFH status are obviously a huge driver. Buyers are, IMO, likely to split the difference - SFH w/ yard, but immediate access to urban amenities once this blows over.

I think both of you are talking about two different types of people in these scenarios. I wouldn't have considered Providence pre-pandemic because of the commute and/or a job change and likely reduction in salary. But I'd certainly consider Providence now (if I hadn't committed to Boston) assuming the option to work remotely permanently is on the table. It offers more bang for the buck in terms of housing while still living in an appealing urban area. My girlfriend and I are in our late 20s/mid 30s, prefer an urban environment, and aren't hopping on the kids train for the foreseeable future.

But I think there's a different group, particularly some of the the older millenials (even the younger ones, we're all at least in our mid-20s at this point), that were not as enthusiastic about urban living before (but went for it due to convenience) and are looking to start/grow a family. This may be a tipping point for them. They may choose more suburban/exurban setup, or at least SFH w/ yard closer to urban amenities.

I think the smaller cities that had seen some of the Boston runoff will be hit the hardest if demand for urban living dips longer term. Cities like Lowell and Haverhill which had seen significant development in/around their downtown areas catering to buyers and renters priced out of Boston but still looking for urban living will probably be the first to see significant reductions in demand. Boston (and even Providence) at least has enough demand to weather some outflow for a while.

[robr2]

Originally Posted by Lampert

I think so. Is that so weird? There are people that are actually just priced out of Boston but still want to live in a city. Providence is a small city but being part of a large urban area feels a larger. Not Boston but still urban.

Exactly - for 2 BR Cambridge condo money, one can be in a stately 4 BR+ house with a little yard on the east side of Providence or in Salisbury in Worcester.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

Aren't rents in Boston falling? Or only for luxury apartments?

No, they’re definitely falling. At least 6% YOY in August but 2x the availability.

https://www.bostonmagazine.com/prope...renters-deals/

The lower end of the market seems to really have decreased with far more 2BRS in the $1400-2000 range

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by robr2

Exactly - for 2 BR Cambridge condo money, one can be in a stately 4 BR+ house with a little yard on the east side of Providence or in Salisbury in Worcester.

But how would you get to your job if you lived in Salisbury or Worcester.