2021 Real Estate Observations (Boston: taxes, to live, restaurant)

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

55% percent of Americans own stock in some capacity. Massachusetts is a top 3 wealth and income state with a population of of nearly 7 million.

Care to guess how many of the 6k RE buyers last month owned stock in some capacity? I bet it's much higher than 55% national average. We're not 'Bama.

I'm guessing part of that percentage comes from their 401k where their employer chooses the stock for them. I also am sure that plenty of people in Boston own much of the TSLA stock market. I am just saying don't assume it's everyone. You are starting to sound like my wealthy uncle who is a big stock market guy and said not too long ago that he cant imagine anyone in the US is poor and hungry. Please get a clue.

[BostonMike7]

I hate to say this, but the stock market and the '08 downturn are what got me into my first property. I've had a 401K since my early 20's, but I didn't know crap about investing back then, but at the urging of my father decided to start doing some research and get into the market. I was 27ish at the time, and absolutely none of my peers were investing (or even had retirement accounts) at that time. The fact that I had money I could put in the stock market was a rare feat considering most of my friends were unemployed at the time and struggling just to pay rent. I couldn't convince my g/f at the time to put any money into her 401K because she needed it for bills in the present.

My social circle has changed in the 13 years or so since. More of my peers invest now, and yeah, they are upper middle class males. I have a group chat going right now with a few buddies and our #1 topic is stock market investment tips. I've tried to explain to my wife my strategy but she has no interest. In fact, i manage her retirement accounts because she doesn't understand it. I've tried to explain a management strategy but she doesn't understand it. I'm sure the same is true for a number of people out there.

But, in the context of this thread, my wife and I are debating our next home purchase in the next 1-2 years and the vast majority, if not all, of the funding for that next home will be Real Estate gains and my investments in the market over the last few years. I'm not sure I'd ever be able to buy a house now if i was starting out in this area on straight W-2 income. Seems like a daunting task. At the same time, i can't really say "Just invest in the stock market" because it's not an easy feat for many to understand, let along people who don't have the disposable income to just throw at something they don't understand.

I never bought any TSLA though.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I'm guessing part of that percentage comes from their 401k where their employer chooses the stock for them. I also am sure that plenty of people in Boston own much of the TSLA stock market. I am just saying don't assume it's everyone. You are starting to sound like my wealthy uncle who is a big stock market guy and said not too long ago that he cant imagine anyone in the US is poor and hungry. Please get a clue.

Read my posts and tell me where I’m assuming it’s everyone. I’m not. The majority of MA residents are priced out of the eastern MA market, either due to affordability or a competitive disadvantage.

I’m suggesting that the very low inventory means only those who have significant capital can compete in certain markets and that reduces your buyers to high income and/or equity gains and/or other capital windfalls like inheritance. It means the statistical outliers can and probably do dominate the current RE markets 495 and east.

[msRB311]

I certainly wish I had bought some TSLA. Thinking of buying some NIO or Fisker.

[BostonMike7]

I've held some NIO since last summer. It's been good to me

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Read my posts and tell me where I’m assuming it’s everyone. I’m not. The majority of MA residents are priced out of the eastern MA market, either due to affordability or a competitive disadvantage.

I’m suggesting that the very low inventory means only those who have significant capital can compete in certain markets and that reduces your buyers to high income and/or equity gains and/or other capital windfalls like inheritance. It means the statistical outliers can and probably do dominate the current RE markets 495 and east.

Key word here is eastern. It isn't that big of a deal to move to central or western mass. You get the same tv and radio stations. Websites look the same and you actually have more independent businesses due to the lower cost structure.

the trouble with higher end markets is it ultimately sustainable. I moved from a town on the south shore back in 2015. I'd argue about things on the town boards here and there. Sometimes they didn't like what I said...but I was right. town population is down 4% since 2014 (the peak) it's now where it was in 2008. Boombing covid suburbs? yeah right, not there. The average is -0.5% annually. which by 2030 will have the same population as 2000. The town ages out and younger people simply don't want to live there. Boomerang kids? Not there. Student population is down 35% since peak and there's been arguments of closing an elementary school for years. I knew things were getting bad when I saw lopsided development. A bank torn down for...parking. A center for a bike shop, jewelry, donut shop and music store for kids was torn down for..... a gas station. Independent shops have gradually closed and owners are wondering what they are getting for that extra 200K of house worth when they could go somewhere else cheaper.

The vast majority of people I graduated high school with left the state, especially those with an education. I know some that went to other countries, other states and regions etc. Generally they can visit but 20+ years later they aren't moving back.

Why struggle and live in some group setting in eastern mass if you can own outside of it? That's pretty much it. What's the point of renting if you can live with someone else (pre covid). Now it's easier to save and invest to live somewhere else. It's like getting a luxury car. Maybe some day you'll get it but there's no point in biking to work for 20+ years thinking you can get it if you can get a cheap buick instead.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Key word here is eastern. It isn't that big of a deal to move to central or western mass. You get the same tv and radio stations. Websites look the same and you actually have more independent businesses due to the lower cost structure.

the trouble with higher end markets is it ultimately sustainable. I moved from a town on the south shore back in 2015. I'd argue about things on the town boards here and there. Sometimes they didn't like what I said...but I was right. town population is down 4% since 2014 (the peak) it's now where it was in 2008. Boombing covid suburbs? yeah right, not there. The average is -0.5% annually. which by 2030 will have the same population as 2000. The town ages out and younger people simply don't want to live there. Boomerang kids? Not there. Student population is down 35% since peak and there's been arguments of closing an elementary school for years. I knew things were getting bad when I saw lopsided development. A bank torn down for...parking. A center for a bike shop, jewelry, donut shop and music store for kids was torn down for..... a gas station. Independent shops have gradually closed and owners are wondering what they are getting for that extra 200K of house worth when they could go somewhere else cheaper.

The vast majority of people I graduated high school with left the state, especially those with an education. I know some that went to other countries, other states and regions etc. Generally they can visit but 20+ years later they aren't moving back.

Why struggle and live in some group setting in eastern mass if you can own outside of it? That's pretty much it. What's the point of renting if you can live with someone else (pre covid). Now it's easier to save and invest to live somewhere else. It's like getting a luxury car. Maybe some day you'll get it but there's no point in biking to work for 20+ years thinking you can get it if you can get a cheap buick instead.

No doubt. Massachusetts has problems but there’s really too much power in the top 20% to get the reforms people want to see, done. That’s what it boils down too. Most concerns in MA deal with the top 20 and bottom 20%. At least in comparison to most states with population growth.

The top 20/25% in MA is exceptionally politically active and influential both in state and nationally. They’re just so exceptionally well educated and so rich. It’s more or less impossible to get more middle class ideas through-to his credit I think Baker tries to do this.

[msRB311]

I recently saw a home in brookline that sold for around 10 million. I looked up who the owner was and it was an Asian name...googled them and they had recently sold a 43 million dollar building with someone else in the city ( i forget where ). There is a lot of wealth in Boston driving up the cost of housing.

[mdovell]

sometimes home just there to say that a home can be built there. I'm serious. I moved from a town on the south shore and there's this boarded up house further out. Basically they didn't demo the house because they wanted to show that a house could still be put up there. They put up some vegetation in order to not have people see it by a gas station but it is still there.

Sometimes affluent people just like buying things. Long ago when I worked for a company out of a blue one guy bought 10% of it. No one knew who he was or what he planned. He sold it months later.

Flippers are in the market. I know because I bought a flipped house. Heck STCC in springfield has a class on it now.

[robr2]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I recently saw a home in brookline that sold for around 10 million. I looked up who the owner was and it was an Asian name...googled them and they had recently sold a 43 million dollar building with someone else in the city ( i forget where ). There is a lot of wealth in Boston driving up the cost of housing.

Does this have any bearing on the story?