Like he** I'm going to pay these prices! (moving to, offices)

[mdovell]

I remember the hot desk concept (i.e wework) being popular. The first one I saw seemed cool but then came another and then there's still offices around town. I can't see that much in demand for new construction of commercial real estate. There's a project I've been haggling for a few years now. It's a demo with a new hotel. At this point I think it's just going to be a demo. Every time I try talking to their legal connection it ends up on the news again. Delayed years. Now it's supposed to be by memorial day but I'm thinking 4th of july. I see much more demand for residential construction but these lumber prices are really adding up. Supposedly it's adding 30K to the price of a new home. I hear shingles are going up later this year. Get all the roofing work done asap.

[BostonMike7]

I paid $7 for a 2x4 yesterday. That's a bit over 2X the price of what I would have paid a couple years ago.

[Shrewsburried]

So my refi appraisal came in and ... wow, very thankful I'm not buying right now.

Bought my Sterling home as a short sale in 2015 for $310k. I've replaced all all the systems with premium components (Mitsubishi heat pumps, Italian triple pass boiler with indirect, new Square D panels) and 2/3rds of the windows with Marvin casements. This said, the house is still pretty rough ... exposed zip tape/typar, what siding remains is failing, deck looks like a tear down, etc. Interior is much improved and has a bit of 'Dwell Aesthetic', but it isn't anything terribly special (e.g., trim work, custom built cabinets/shelving, paint) and the kitchen and master bath still scream '80s.

Appraisal came in at $480k. $170K/55% in 5 years is absurd for the 190 belt.

[id77]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Yes I can think of two off the top of my head.

I agree that if a company is paying a large amount for space it's in their best interest to use the space. However that's not the problem of the employee. People can and will find other jobs if employers aren't flexible.

For whatever reason it seems like many people here are threatened by the idea of remote work. So many people here get defensive when it comes up. I dont know why. If you dont want to WFH don't. If you want to make your employees come into the office, go ahead...but dont assume that everyone else is doing the same.

It's not that we're threatened. It's that the data out there and the trends from people in position to make such business decisions are leaning more toward return to office than work from home. In other words, we're not disagreeing with you because your ideas scare us, but because what you say is unlikely to be true for a majority of former office workers.

Set expectations soon and set them appropriately. Someone hearing people say 'WFH is the new normal' on a forum just builds up their hope to get crushed later when it turns out to not be their new normal.

I could sit here and say most people will live to be 100, but the fact of the matter is most people won't live to be 100. If someone came on and corrected me, for me to respond with 'it seems that people are threatened by the idea of living to 100' is, frankly, silly.

[BostonMike7]

I have some peers in management positions, and they do tell me their higher-ups are in favor of full return and they are making plans for it. I have no idea what the ratio is, nor do I really want to promote one option over the other as being favorable to all businesses. However, it does appear that universal WFH/Hybrid may not be in the cards for everyone depending on industry and other employment situations.

[id77]

Originally Posted by AtkinsonDan

I can see the logic of bringing employees back if the employer is on the hook for an expensive multi-year lease.

The question then becomes: What happens when the lease term is over?

Medium and large companies are likely to still bring employees back and renew leases. Office space and costs play a part, but productivity is another aspect, and it's been studied and tested extensively in the last year and shown that productivity of WFH is not on par with in-office productivity for most fields. WebEx and Zoom are poor collaboration tools next to a conference room and white board, and in-person meetings aren't plagued with attendees talking into a muted mic or lagging horribly while watching a presentation. In-person meetings aren't plagued with TVs on in the background, kids screaming, or other distractions. Less motivated employees can be motivated in an office setting in ways they can't be motivated when at home. There's a litany of little things that are just a little bit smoother when in-person.

Was WFH a smashing success for what it was? Yes! Businesses faced with 0% employee productivity versus 80% employee productivity saw this as a major win. Expectations during the shutdowns for corporate work was also tempered, and again WFH met and often exceeded those expectations.

However, none of that means anything when business leaders turn their attention back toward maximizing efficiency once the pandemic is in our rear-view mirror. 80% productivity is less than 90% productivity, and if there's 10% to be squeezed from an office, it will be done (barring some other prohibitive expense). While that may sound good enough for an employee, 10% wasted efficiency is the difference between a quarterly call with investors that sends their share prices soaring versus crashing. The mere mention of slowdown in the pipeline, even if that slowdown is still above target, is terrible news to Wall Street.

Now, hybrid is another matter. It raises that productivity up by enabling the in-person collaboration and interactions needed, and it means they can oversubscribe office space to save some money. Hybrid is much more likely to cross the finish line than 100% WFH.

[Boston Shudra]

Will returning to the office (or not) have an impact on the area’s housing costs?

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

However, it does appear that universal WFH/Hybrid may not be in the cards for everyone depending on industry and other employment situations.

I don't think there is any questioning this. There will be lots of jobs that are 100% on-site or at least mostly on-site because they're more productive/efficient done that way.


I also think that there will always be managers who want to watch all their staff sitting in their chairs working. I fought that for a decade+ as a telecommuter. There is a class of people who think anyone working remotely is really lounging by the pool sipping an umbrella drink. You're never going to change that perception in those people.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Boston Shudra

Will returning to the office (or not) have an impact on the area’s housing costs?

In the blue chip suburbs and the most desirable urban neighborhoods? It's unlikely to have any impact. The person buying the $750k condo conversion in the "up and coming" working class town? I wouldn't bet on housing prices there not correcting downwards as interest rates go back up.

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

In the blue chip suburbs and the most desirable urban neighborhoods? It's unlikely to have any impact. The person buying the $750k condo conversion in the "up and coming" working class town? I wouldn't bet on housing prices there not correcting downwards as interest rates go back up.

That would be a start. When do you think a correction will happen? A few months? A year?