Influx of Transplants? (Minneapolis, Eden Prairie, Cook: school, universities, quality of life)

[TheGrandViking]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

Yes, this is anecdotal evidence and my goal of this topic was to see if my observations were merely coincidence or if others have had similar observations. There are reports and data that provide a more exact picture but they are usually a year or two behind and wouldn’t capture what is happening right now.

Before you posted this, my wife and I both noticed an influx of out-of-state plates during the parent pickup at our kid's schools. I can't really say if this indicated a increase in transplants, maybe just grandparents picking the kids up from out-of-state, or just purchased used cars that haven't got their plates updated. You can't really say without some statistical measure.

My two biggest pet peeves with transplants are with being told how transplants should be welcomed (and sharing their "deep" insight into "Minnesota Nice" after months of living here) and praising a quality of life aspect that is usually the result of taxes and then complaining about how much they are being taxed. For example, I was talking to a recent transplant from Florida two years ago and she was saying how much better the schools were here and how great Eden Prairie's park system was. Then later on in the conversation she indicated she was not happy about the taxes here. If you were waiting for her to connect the dots, you would still be waiting.


There is no way to know politically where these transplants stand unless someone has conducted a study. So, it is difficult to guess what the future of Minnesota will be from a political sense. But, It is safe to say that many of the rural areas are shrinking and getting old while the metro is growing. So, as time goes on, political influence is tipping even more towards the metro.

[Lodestar]

I can safely say that every day when I am out running errands I notice, not license plates, but a definite increase in diversity. We have several institutions of higher learning so that may account for my perceptions.

But still, my neighborhood is increasingly diverse. Whether these are other Minnesotans who have moved here or if they are transplants I can only tell you from those with whom I have had conversations and generally they are from Chicago in my experience.

I can't see my observations supported by city statistics so that's a puzzle that points to them being visitors or short stay guests.

[BeaSeo]

My son recently moved there from Colorado to work for one of the Fortune 500 companies who has it headquarters there.

[Cruz Azul Guy]

Originally Posted by Glenfield

It may just be the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon at work.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/li...phenomenon.htm

So I take it you don’t believe there is an uptick in out-of-staters moving to the Twin Cities I take it?

[Wayr2go]

Well, I've kept my GA plates for as long as I possibly could have. So yeah, transplanted. But I don't see an "influx" as such, unless WI counts (every other car is WI). On a side note, MN and WI registrants don't know how to drive - I'm sorry to stir the pot, but had to

[unxpctd]

I'm more worried about the Iowa drivers....now they don't know how to drive

[2x3x29x41]

Originally Posted by Glenfield

It may just be the Baader-Meinhof Phenomenon at work.

https://science.howstuffworks.com/li...phenomenon.htm

Thank you for that.

I've noticed that phenomenon - though I had no idea that it was informally named after the Baader-Meinhof Gang (or that this name originated in a Pioneer Press comments section).

Interesting.

[Glenfield]

Originally Posted by Cruz Azul Guy

So I take it you don’t believe there is an uptick in out-of-staters moving to the Twin Cities I take it?

Not enough to be noticeable.

According to the state demographer, Minnesota gained 43,000 residents between 2017-18. Of these, 25,800 come from more births than deaths and 10,700 immigrated here from another country. That leaves only 6,500 to come from other states. I do not think a change of 6,500 to a population of 5.6 million would be noticeable.
https://content.govdelivery.com/acco...5DWANE.twitter

I think my first explanation of Baden-Meinhof Phenomenon is more likely the cause. It happens to me all the time with different things.

[Lodestar]

Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. My leg is being pulled, methinks.

I've lived in this small city for over forty years so while it is not a scientific observation it is a very clear observation of changing demographics that can only be observed when you have been stationary and others have been joining you. New grocery shops, new places of worship, new accents and languages, new ways of dressing, new public behavior are all signs that people who have different cultural values have chosen to live here.

Nobody even says "Uffdah" anymore. So I guess we are assimilating.

Last week I visited a health clinic and a big box store and was obviously in the cultural minority in both places. City statistics don't support my observations. Is my leg still being pulled? Are they being counted correctly?

If the change isn't from others moving into the state have Norwegians and Germans been secretly harboring them in their basements for decades unbeknownst?

You folks that are younger, more urban and/or more mobile are at a disadvantage in your perceptions. In greater MN the change is more apparent.

[2x3x29x41]

Originally Posted by Lodestar

Baader-Meinhof phenomenon. My leg is being pulled, methinks.

Heckuva an elaborate ruse, if so.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion
https://curiosity.com/topics/blame-t...ers-curiosity/
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Baade...hof_phenomenon

Originally Posted by Lodestar

I've lived in this small city for over forty years so while it is not a scientific observation it is a very clear observation of changing demographics that can only be observed when you have been stationary and others have been joining you. New grocery shops, new places of worship, new accents and languages, new ways of dressing, new public behavior are all signs that people who have different cultural values have chosen to live here.

Nobody even says "Uffdah" anymore. So I guess we are assimilating.

Last week I visited a health clinic and a big box store and was obviously in the cultural minority in both places. City statistics don't support my observations. Is my leg still being pulled? Are they being counted correctly?

If the change isn't from others moving into the state have Norwegians and Germans been secretly harboring them in their basements for decades unbeknownst?

You folks that are younger, more urban and/or more mobile are at a disadvantage in your perceptions. In greater MN the change is more apparent.

A couple of points:

First, the existence of cognitive biases does not mean that we cannot perceive change through observations. It means that some of our observations will results in flawed conclusions.

Second, some things are simply more observable. For example, I live in a Minnesota town that had four grocery stores when I was growing up in the 1970s/1980s. It now has two (three, if you count the grocery section of the Target) while it has doubled in size. It demonstrably has seen a consolidation in terms of grocery stores per capita. It has also become far more ethnically diverse. I can check this by looking at my senior yearbook and seeing three African-Americans, one Asian, and zero Hispanics. By contrast, the senior yearbooks of my children (who graduated from the same school 28 to 30 years later) have significantly higher numbers of such minorities. These are far more fixed and verifiable data inputs that 'license plates I happen to notice when driving wherever I happen to drive'.

Note: I'm not faulting either you or the OP. We are all subject to cognitive biases such as these, even when we are aware of them.

Given the numbers posted by Glenfield a couple posts back, it would take a systematic, statewide survey of tens of thousands of license plates for that level of domestic migration to emerge from the observational data.