So much rain (Lynchburg, Wartrace, Henry: homes, tornado, live)

[MetropolitanTN]

It sure seems like we've had a higher than normal amount of rain so far this year.

Does anyone know a website that has year to date rainfall totals and a comparison to the average amount? Ive Googled but cant find one.

[GraniteStater]

Yes, check the National Weather Service local climate data page:

Here is Nashville rain totals for 2019 so far with respect to average:

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=ohx
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=ohx


The far more concerning aspect is the amount of rain forecasted over the next week. 5-8'' of rainfall are more than likely across most of Tennessee and northern Alabama leading to a very enhanced widespread flood threat. Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from CPC site suggest over 10'' in some areas over seven days given strong jet stream energy overhead and subtropical low level moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico due to stationary Bermuda High off in the Atlantic.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1550453150

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc.../Soilmst.shtml

[Normashirley]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Yes, check the National Weather Service local climate data page:

Here is Nashville rain totals for 2019 so far with respect to average:

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=ohx
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=ohx


The far more concerning aspect is the amount of rain forecasted over the next week. 5-8'' of rainfall are more than likely across most of Tennessee and northern Alabama leading to a very enhanced widespread flood threat. Quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from CPC site suggest over 10'' in some areas over seven days given strong jet stream energy overhead and subtropical low level moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico due to stationary Bermuda High off in the Atlantic.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1550453150

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc.../Soilmst.shtml

When I try to open either of the first two links you posted, I get this error message

"Sorry, you must supply a valid product and station ID ".

I live about an hour SE of Nashville on top of a hill with exceptionally great natural drainage. We are on the soggy side. My manure pile is down in a "bowl" in the far pasture -- I have started taking pictures because I've seen it partially covered once this year -- I won't be surprised to see it go completely under water this time.

The neighbor's pond is already double its normal size, which is not uncommon when we get a lot of rain but this week it might triple or quadruple with the overflow making a mini lake in the bottomland of our far pasture, lollol. Our homes sit high so no big deal for any of us, but it means local creeks and the Duck River will be on the rampage.

My pastures are greener now than they were last November because we have had so much rain and minimal cold. Not at all common, even for my area, this time of year.

Even if folks are not in what are considered low-lying areas and have never flooded before, they still need to be prepared this week. clear the yards of everything including debris. Possible move things in the garage & home off the floors to a higher safer area.

Nobody should have to be reminded NOT to drive thru high water, yet someone always does putting themselves and the Responders in serious danger, if they need rescued.

Nashville's mayor is warning everyone up there to take this rain seriously. The Cumberland River (which runs right thru Nashville) is very high. They can increase the release of water but they have to be careful of the amount so as not to flood other areas <----perfect Catch 22 storm

[b]Some February rainfall Statistics from Fox 17's meteorologist this morning:[b]

1880 = 12.2"
2018 = 10.91"
2019 = 8.32" to date - on track to be a record February rainfall.

Look at the rainfall this way: If the temps were colder, we would be talking about FEET of snow instead of inches of water and I would be plowing non-stop --- I'm from the OH/PA border originally, where plowing snow in Febeuary is a given

[septimus]

I follow these guys on Twitter. They are usually pretty accurate on Nashville Weather. https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx

We are going to get a lot of rain. As it is my sump pump has been going crazy and I live on a hill. What really concerns me is all the old trees and the really wet grown means a gust of wind could take out large trees.

[N.Cal]

Originally Posted by septimus

I follow these guys on Twitter. They are usually pretty accurate on Nashville Weather. https://twitter.com/NashSevereWx

Yes, those guys are the best. There is still standing water in some corners around downtown and the north side. By the end of the week it will be a huge mess.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Normashirley

When I try to open either of the first two links you posted, I get this error message

"Sorry, you must supply a valid product and station ID ".

I live about an hour SE of Nashville on top of a hill with exceptionally great natural drainage. We are on the soggy side. My manure pile is down in a "bowl" in the far pasture -- I have started taking pictures because I've seen it partially covered once this year -- I won't be surprised to see it go completely under water this time.

The neighbor's pond is already double its normal size, which is not uncommon when we get a lot of rain but this week it might triple or quadruple with the overflow making a mini lake in the bottomland of our far pasture, lollol. Our homes sit high so no big deal for any of us, but it means local creeks and the Duck River will be on the rampage.

My pastures are greener now than they were last November because we have had so much rain and minimal cold. Not at all common, even for my area, this time of year.

Even if folks are not in what are considered low-lying areas and have never flooded before, they still need to be prepared this week. clear the yards of everything including debris. Possible move things in the garage & home off the floors to a higher safer area.

Nobody should have to be reminded NOT to drive thru high water, yet someone always does putting themselves and the Responders in serious danger, if they need rescued.

Nashville's mayor is warning everyone up there to take this rain seriously. The Cumberland River (which runs right thru Nashville) is very high. They can increase the release of water but they have to be careful of the amount so as not to flood other areas <----perfect Catch 22 storm

[b]Some February rainfall Statistics from Fox 17's meteorologist this morning:[b]

1880 = 12.2"
2018 = 10.91"
2019 = 8.32" to date - on track to be a record February rainfall.

Look at the rainfall this way: If the temps were colder, we would be talking about FEET of snow instead of inches of water and I would be plowing non-stop --- I'm from the OH/PA border originally, where plowing snow in Febeuary is a given

Sorry, here are the screen shots from the link found here: You just have to click local climate data, Nashville.
https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ohx
So, February has seen the greatest departures from average for precipitation compared to any other month this winter. Stay safe out there!

[Wartrace]

I've lived in Wartrace, TN for over 15 years and have never seen it this wet. The Garrison fork river is 200 yards wide right now at the Hardee bridge and Potts road is covered with water. I'm concerned for people driving around this evening; it's hard to see the full picture with just headlights.

[Normashirley]

Originally Posted by Wartrace

I've lived in Wartrace, TN for over 15 years and have never seen it this wet. The Garrison fork river is 200 yards wide right now at the Hardee bridge and Potts road is covered with water. I'm concerned for people driving around this evening; it's hard to see the full picture with just headlights.

I've also lived in the Wartrace postal area for a little over 15 years. We sit up about 1,050 feet and have fantastic natural drainage.

We were not this soggy during the 2010 Nashville flood when the huge "bowl" in our main pasture filled clear full with water. The bowl is deep enough the farm tractor with the lid on it completely disappears when we bush hog that area.

This go-round it only took on about three feet of water BUT the water was still there, until 9:30 the next morning -- many hours after it had stopped raining. The ground is really water logged this time.

We have splash blocks under the down spouts on the barn, but I made a sluice-type arrangement out of two splash blocks to get the water further from the barn on the SW corner. Geez-Lahweez, water was running down over the knoll like Niagara Falls, to where it uprooted some of the grass.

I have never had to honestly slog thru mud down at the barn, until now.

I am still open-mouthed at the piece of road, in Henry County, that collapsed costing a driver his life when he drove over it and went ~200' down an embankment. The pictures of the collapsed road are awful. I hope that road isn't the only way in & out for some folks.

We won't be done with this rain until Sunday. They are saying the rain event coming sometime Saturday is bringing some tornado risk with it.

[Normashirley]

I think we are done with rain for at least a few days -- hopefully enough time for water to recede and just leave everyone a soggy mess.

DH never asks for details so all I know is one of fellas where he works had to get rescued out of his vehicle. I don't know if the man was simply trying to get home from somewhere or if he was out looking at the water and got himself caught up in the water.

That was Coffee County. Lynchburg is in Moore County and home to the Jack Daniels Distillery. The base on the statue of Jack Daniels was under water. This is the worst they have flooded in the 15+ years I've lived in this area.

I hope everyone is safe, dry, and didn't get smacked with the next weather insult that immediately followed --- tornadoes. According to the news, some areas of Missouri suffered tornado damage last night.

[GWoodle]

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 61 359 PM 83 1996 54 7
MINIMUM 51 320 AM 12 1963 34 17
1929
AVERAGE 56 44 12

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 1.23 3.69 1909 0.14 1.09
MONTH TO DATE 12.73 3.23 9.50
SINCE JAN 1 17.27 6.98 10.29

SNOWFALL (IN)
TODAY 0.0 3.8 1947
MONTH TO DATE T
SINCE DEC 1 0.5
SINCE JUL 1 0.5

Data updated to 2/23

The 12.73 makes a new Record for the Month.
17.27 for the 2 months January was already wet

For all the newbies to Nashville now may be the time to go see how high the water is to where you are! From the Stones River to Mill Creek to Richland Creek to the Harpeth River. More flood downtown near the Farmers Market. Some flood downtown in the Cumberland.

My Accuweather is posting plenty of Flood Warnings.