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I am interested in hearing from this forum on this subject.
I do not think it will be pretty. I am a young man and is pretty much the reason I am getting out. I look at the situation objectively and I honestly see NJ as becoming in a similar scenario to Detroit/Michigan. I think taxes are going to complete devaluate property values and we are gonna be left in major trouble.
NYC will always be a major city, but if things get bad enough, people can always live in NY state if they are looking for NYC suburbs.
I just dont see a bright future, so I am getting out.
But I am curious as to where everyone else thinks things will be at? Especially curious for folks who are 20-30 years old and will have children growing up in the state.
I'll know more after Christie's tenure is up but this state has just been beaten up by so many past senators and politicians and governors, republicans and democrats alike with their corruption scandals and every future generation just takes on more and more of the load paying for it. One thing I do hope is that the nice areas of NJ like some NJ shore beaches and nice scenic trails along the Delaware Water Gap and the Palisades are still around so I can one day take my kids there and show them how nice it is. I'm 28 right now and wedding will be in a couple years so we got some time to think about it.
On the other hand I did come over from NY, Long Island specifically 4 yrs ago and I can tell you everything costs just as much or more. More traffic in general, same high property taxes, more congested in the NYC suburb area, higher sales tax, 20 cents per gallon more on gas in general, and now you don't even know who's running the state there as the governor looks as bright as a hammer. NJ public schools are much better than most NYC suburban schools as well. It is easier to drive to other states from NJ than NYC too...I can't tell you enough how much I love not having to cross a crowded bridge or tunnel everytime
Your argument is completely based on the assumption that NY state is a much better alternative than NJ. From what I have seen, NY state is having similar issues as NJ and is far from the greener pasture that you picture it being.
The comparison to Detriot/Michigan is poor, you allude to it in your post. The bottom fell out of Detriot as a city and there was no industry or business to generate jobs and/or revenue. Since you say NYC will always be a major city, then that concern is moot as NYC will continue to supply some New Jerseyians with jobs. Philly as well.
Now, that word "some" is the crux of the matter and where I think Jersey will end up in 20 years. I believe, unless something drastic is done now, you will see a dramatic contraction of wealth in NJ. Especially if the pharma industry leaves the state, with it being located primarily in central NJ, it will leave a gaping hole both economic and geographical and I believe cause two fragments to form- NYC suburbs and Philly suburbs (major locations of employment). Wealth will still be present in NJ, but it will be highly contentrated along mass transit lines and relatively close to the city (<60 minutes rush hour commute). Towns that emerged in this past boom in less than ideal locations that I mentioned might be facing the grim reality that their fall may continue long after the real estate market recovers. You may experience a "night and day" situation where the schools, services and commerce make a dramatic drop off once you leave these zones.
I think that New Jersey would be alright. I consider New Jersey to be like California, but on the East Coast. People who are not from these states like to poke fun at these states and hope that they go away. The states are two of the largest business areas in the country. Both have rising taxes and expensive home values. They are two states where most who live there love it, but would rather it not be so expensive. Even with this some move out, but there are people who are more than willing to move in. It will probably get to a point where people say enough is enough, but that has not happened yet in either state.
There are not many states where you have the beach, mountains, casinos, and three major cities within a day/weekend trip distance. Plus in both states you have the chance at all four seasons, without any being too severe.
I think the area around New York and Philadelphia will always be strong. If you go into Pennsylvania and go around the Main Line, it is just as expensive as New Jersey.
To me it will be interesting to see what will happen to Central Jersey with the closing of Fort Monmouth. They employed a lot of people, who are now relocating to other bases, mostly Maryland. Asbury Park is starting back up and within 20 years I believe they could be fully back up. That could definitely help the area.
There is too much wealth in the state and too many high paying jobs available in north jersey / nyc area for it to ever get that bad......but yes some parts of the state may become barren.
I am interested in hearing from this forum on this subject.
I do not think it will be pretty. I am a young man and is pretty much the reason I am getting out. I look at the situation objectively and I honestly see NJ as becoming in a similar scenario to Detroit/Michigan. I think taxes are going to complete devaluate property values and we are gonna be left in major trouble.
NYC will always be a major city, but if things get bad enough, people can always live in NY state if they are looking for NYC suburbs.
I just dont see a bright future, so I am getting out.
But I am curious as to where everyone else thinks things will be at? Especially curious for folks who are 20-30 years old and will have children growing up in the state.
I am a NJ resident, and I agree with you that property taxes in NJ is going to be the death of this state. However, NY State property taxes are not too far behind in the lower upstate region. Have you seen property taxes in Rockland County?
Two words: Constitutional Convention. Nothing short of that will save this state's finances. Lots of folks like to engage in fanciful rhetoric about the "death" of New Jersey (Will the last one out please turn off the lights, etc...), but the fact of the matter is New Jersey will always be a "Keg tapped at both ends" to quote Benjamin Franklin. The state can't simply become deserted. If that were even a remote possibility California would have been abandoned in the 1970s. Unfortunately things will have to get a great deal worse before they get better though. Property taxes will have to reach some sort of upper limit where even the wealthy cannot bear them, pensioners will have to start being issued IOUs, and services (roads, rail, schools, police, fire, etc...) will have to totally break down. Not to mention there will have to be a massive exodus of the middle class.
Only then will a new system be able to rise from the ashes of the old. The entire tax structure and system of government will need to be changed along with the way we administer and pay for everything from trash collection to schools to unemployment insurance. We would do well to go by the county model and scrap the fiefdoms that currently exist. Once things get bad enough the towns/residents will have no choice but to comply. The question is whether or not it will take 20 years. I'm not really sure as I'm no economist. For all I know it could happen in five years or it could take 30 years.
I don't think NJ will ever die or become the wasteland that Detroit is right now..it's going to be a bumpy road for the next few years..I read NJ will be behind the rest of the country by about 2 years in the "recovery".
For Jersey to die both NYC & Philly would have to fold first and that's not happening
Did anyone see "Earth 2100" on ABC? This and terrorism is the sort of thing that worries me.
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