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New Year, new thread. The second installment of the 2011 crime thread is open for wrap-up discussions for the next few days, with year-end numbers, etc. Please use this thread to discuss 2012 crime issues. Thank you.
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All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players: they have their exits and their entrances; and one man in his time plays many parts, his acts being seven ages.
~William Shakespeare (As You Like It Act II, Scene VII)
As usual, the transition into the new year comes with many shootings and on the Gothamist map, it seems that the BX and BK were the center for many violence.
I know i'm really running on this point but this was what really boggled my mind about these statistics from this year... If anyone paid any remote attention to the statistics you would realize that throughout the year numbers would fluctuate constantly... For example one week they would report a decrease in crime and then the following week was a decrease in crime but the overall numbers increased... The job this police force has done to convince the public we are continuing to decrease in crime over the past few years is nothing short of remarkable... Really you have to give a hand to commissioner Kelly and his brilliant task force who have been working diligently crunching numbers to actually register a continued decrease in crime despite all the evidence pointing otherwise...
As usual, the transition into the new year comes with many shootings and on the Gothamist map, it seems that the BX and BK were the center for many violence.
Just before I can step to the liqour store to buy my bottle for new years eve, someone shoots this dude inside the liqour store. Luckily the kid lived, but I'm sure reprisals will follow.
I think we can all agree that there was likely an uptick in crime this year...but really...it is not the spurt everyone was hoping for. Murder rate is down versus last year overall, although up in the usual hot spots. No surprises here. The question is...what are your predictions for 2012? So far...the only predictions that are ever accurate are the ones which DO NOT forecast the collapse of NYC.
Anyone have a reasonable prediction? I see crime being consistent with the longer-term declining trend, and I don't see any major upswings. I say this every year..and I have yet to be wrong. There may be a negligible increase year over year, but usually just a blip in the longer-term trend.
I think we can all agree that there was likely an uptick in crime this year...but really...it is not the spurt everyone was hoping for. Murder rate is down versus last year overall, although up in the usual hot spots. No surprises here. The question is...what are your predictions for 2012? So far...the only predictions that are ever accurate are the ones which DO NOT forecast the collapse of NYC.
Anyone have a reasonable prediction? I see crime being consistent with the longer-term declining trend, and I don't see any major upswings. I say this every year..and I have yet to be wrong. There may be a negligible increase year over year, but usually just a blip in the longer-term trend.
You are seriously delusional... Really... most city-data members are crying themselves to sleep at night because their neighborhood didn't become the hellhole they wanted it to be...
As for the reality... you can check the original 2011 crime thread... No one aside from already confirmed teenagers predicted the acopalypse of NYC 2011... What some people said (myself being one of them) was that there would be an uptick in crime this year and the murder rate would increase slightly from 530 (reported numbers to about 550 reported numbers)... I was off on the murder rate but believe it or not the summer was actually the calmest part of the year for NYC in 2011... Had it remained on par with the early months and later months... my predictions would have unfortunately been correct...
As for this year... it really all depends on whether the unemployment rate continues to remain stagnant or finally improve... To think that this city(which has continued to decrease in crime over the years) will suddenly become like 1977 all over again because of one year of troublesome times (as you have said people would assume would happen ) is just idiotic logic... But if these problems persist then I do believe that the crime rate will continue to increase slowly but surely while the murder rate as we have seen throughout, will continue to fluctuate...
Not most..but some take some sort of pleasure in increasing crime. Seems like confirmed teenagers are a larger proportion of commenters than you would think...and lots of other people reading these posts don't know who/what they are...so their comments are taken seriously.
I would agree...it would be idiotic logic to think we are returning to 1977 because of a year or two of a slight uptick in crime...yet I seem to be correcting people consistently. Idiots are the rule of the day on city-data at times.
Basically your statement is "if this happens, then that"...which basically means nothing. Provide a concrete prediction....will crime go up or down, will murder go up or down, will the apocalypse be upon us, will Marky Mark have another hit song, etc. What is your crime prediction for 2012.
We both know it's never that simple... We saw what happened this year when the unemployment rate didn't improve though most people thought it would... Do you think that crime would have increased however slightly or remained on par with 2010 had the economy improved...?
Therefore my prediction stands... If things improve for the economy, the crime statistics will reflect that improvement... However, if things remain as they are currently I think we will continue to see an increase in the crime rate and given the murder rate this year I think we will probably see an increase in the murder rate as well...
That's not a prediction...that's just covering all bases. Make 1 prediction and simply stick to it...you won't be penalized if you are wrong. Man up!
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