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I'm really getting tired of this trend of everyone thinking White = wealthy, successful, desirable, boring, vs Black = poor, dangerous, exotic. Here's a tip:
There are Black people with money.
There are Black people who are in the arts.
There are Black people who are educated.
There are Black people who shop at Whole Foods.
Harlem and Fort Greene had "Buppies" and Afro-centric arts communites and pioneers for decades but all the sudden a few less pigmented people show up and it's a "thing". This is the kind of racism that so many "Liberal" NYers expouse. Harlem being successful has nothing to do with White people. It has to do with people with education and career success choosing to live there rather than being an unending wasteland of ghetto fabulousness.
In a sense, I commented on this once in this thread already and did not feel like doing it again.
There are far more wealthy black people in Harlem than people realize, always were.
However let's deal with Harlem. While there were definitely well off Black people in Harlem, Harlem was not a wealthy Black enclave or even a middle class Black enclave. There was massive poverty in Harlem. If you want to talk about neighborhoods that were predominately middle class Black, you would need to speak of Eastern Queens. Go there and you'll find many Black people living in single family homes.
This isn't to say that there are no middle class Black people elsewhere, because there are.
Also if you are honest Harlem did not get major retailers like Whole Foods coming in until the White population increased.
Even today there are huge rows of public housing in parts of Harlem that are not going anywhere any time soon.
From my experience the people gentrifying Harlem are young black professionals who arrive from the suburbs. They are just as oblivious to the community they are in and as narcissist as the white transplants that arrive to NYC. I haven't seen a good metric that captures the amount of displacement being done by more affluent people of the same race in this neighborhoods.
From my experience the people gentrifying Harlem are young black professionals who arrive from the suburbs. They are just as oblivious to the community they are in and as narcissist as the white transplants that arrive to NYC. I haven't seen a good metric that captures the amount of displacement being done by more affluent people of the same race in this neighborhoods.
It seems that we've derailed from the original topic.
To answer the original question as a current Harlem resident -- yes, I believe Harlem real estate (especially Central Harlem) will continue to grow over the next 10 years based on the following:
* Prices in Harlem are still lower than the rest of southern Manhattan
* StreetEasy forecasts a 10% growth in sales prices alone in 2016 (StreetEasy Predicts 2016 New York City Housing Market Trends | StreetEasy)
* Columbia Manhattanville
* Planned M/L train shutdown means people will consider alternatives (such as upper Manhattan)
Now, whether the growth will be 300-700% over the next 10 years in the original townhouse example is probably up for debate.
The best way would be to see how the median incomes have changed in the area. I looked over the NYC planning department website but they don't seem to have much information on income.
the census data is usually the source but not a very accurate one since they pulled all financial data out of the census . now there is a separate random sampling but it is quite a small sampling .
there really is no true way of knowing accuretly .
heck just my building i live in vary's from middle class to very wealthy . depending on the few you sample you can have a totally different slant
15 years ago the Lower East Side was much more affordable........
What are the chances Harlem will see similar growth? Is it worth investing in Harlem? Townhouses are being bought for $1.5 million, will they be worth $5-10mil in the future?
You already missed the best boat. The opportunity to get in and really make money in Harlem was to buy like 15-20 years ago. You can still make good money. But it's not gonna be like what it would have been had you bought way lower.
It seems that we've derailed from the original topic.
To answer the original question as a current Harlem resident -- yes, I believe Harlem real estate (especially Central Harlem) will continue to grow over the next 10 years based on the following:
* Prices in Harlem are still lower than the rest of southern Manhattan
* StreetEasy forecasts a 10% growth in sales prices alone in 2016 (StreetEasy Predicts 2016 New York City Housing Market Trends | StreetEasy)
* Columbia Manhattanville
* Planned M/L train shutdown means people will consider alternatives (such as upper Manhattan)
Now, whether the growth will be 300-700% over the next 10 years in the original townhouse example is probably up for debate.
In Central Harlem, though, prices can only increase - with the exception of a few townhouse blocks and similar.
A challenge with Central Harlem is the preponderance of social service housing, which is not going anywhere in the near future for a number of reasons. It is many, many more buildings than people realize.
In Central Harlem, though, prices can only increase - with the exception of a few townhouse blocks and similar.
A challenge with Central Harlem is the preponderance of social service housing, which is not going anywhere in the near future for a number of reasons. It is many, many more buildings than people realize.
Tell me about it.....in Harlem you can basically walk from Lenox Avenue to the East River on 112th Street and be in nothing but NYCHA - that's a lot....and those that are on 112th Street are pretty bad, maybe among the worst in Manhattan. From crime, to even the state of the buildings, you name it....
Here goes your Harlem:
These people supposed to be happy they can buy $150 sushi now? Bwahahaha the game is ugly.
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"The man who sleeps on the floor, can never fall out of bed." -Martin Lawrence
Tell me about it.....in Harlem you can basically walk from Lenox Avenue to the East River on 112th Street and be in nothing but NYCHA - that's a lot....and those that are on 112th Street are pretty bad, maybe among the worst in Manhattan. From crime, to even the state of the buildings, you name it....
Here goes your Harlem:
These people supposed to be happy they can buy $150 sushi now? Bwahahaha the game is ugly.
It is fundamentally wrong that people live in those conditions.
And that isn't even the worst I have seen.
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