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To think that the long term trend in crime is going to continue to decline is very wishful thinking. I am not a big "doomsday" proponent, but I don't think people realize that we are more than likely on the verge of some very big changes. Whether Mod cutthis year or within the next 5 years, time will only tell. I think it's funny how certain economists and other regular people (mainly ignorant Americans) think that the recession is going to suddenly end and that we will slowly go back to our good ole' American lifestyles of mass conspicuous consumption and a disgusting disproportionate use of resources. The system that has been running us since the dawn of the industrial age is (as everybody knows but chooses to ignore) NOT sustainable. Which means that at some point things are going to have gone too far and will never be able to go back to where they were. It certainly doesn't help that our politicians recognize this but do NOTHING about it. No big changes are being made anywhere, especially in New York where corruption is rampant and money is wasted at an unbelievable rate. It's unfathomable that things such as the city government of Poughkeepsie spending TAXPAYER money to buy 20 leather office chairs (at over $1000 a piece) for some random conference room that will rarely get used, are still happening when more and more people are being laid off as the economy continues to lose jobs (another 85,000 were just cut).
Now, with that said, when things such as our states' 100 billion dollar debt and our nation's failing economy (which hasn't improved, I don't know why people think that we are out of a recession) catch up to us, we will see a dramatic increase in crime. 2008 and 2009 are NOTHING compared to what we will see in the coming years as the situation continues to worsen. When people are finally pushed to the breaking point-as they continue to starve with no work available- while corrupt and greedy politicians waste our tax money at the expense of us, crime will become a necessity. NYC has the potential for mass chaos because as people have already pointed out, there really aren't that many police for the amount of people that live here. In a city as dense as New York where people are literally stacked one on top of the other, there is a huge pool of people competing for what will become even scarcer resources.
It's as simple as that. As economies collapse, people turn to more desperate measures, especially when they see nothing positive being done about it. It took only 4 days for New Orleans to turn into complete anarchy after Katrina. Once our ignorant and arrogant economic system finally catches up to us, I believe we will see something similar across the country. Our so-called civilized society is much more fragile than we think.
You can call all of this speculation, but our way of doing things is driving us deeper into a hole. Our economy is a slowly sinking ship, and you can try and bail it out (pun intended) as much as you want, but without any real change a completely collapse is imminent. New York can barely afford to keep its subway system running right now, yet as people walk through times square and see that the big billboards are still flashing, they are naive and stupid enough to think that everything is perfectly ok. I think America is going to be in for a huge wake-up call.
That is exactly what I've been saying for the last few posts. People are so stubborn and blind to not see the reality behind the trouble that is potentially in store for New York and the rest of the country in a few years. Claiming that the citizens mind-state has changed for good is really not an intelligent way to look at how crime is currently decreasing. When people are starving for a job to feed their kids they will eventually look to crime if no improvement is made in a few years. When the police department shrinks and their pay goes on hold, they will stop caring about their job in general. The moral and trust of the city will decline and crime will take over.
Jaged and Inspiron I would tend to agree with your theroies IF NYC did not have so many established, common and accessible social programs and safety nets.
-Out of a job? No worries, get on unemployment.
-No money for rent..no worries, get on Section 8.
-Homeless? No problem, NYC by law must provide you temporary housing AND will find you permanent housing as well.
-Not enough money for food? No worries, you will get on food stamps AND go to one of the MANY local foodbanks where you will get lots of free food all the time.
-No money for the kids? No worries, public schools provide free breakfast and lunch.
-No money to get your kids to school? Free metrocards.
-Need money for your babies? Not to worry, get on W.I.C for all those needs.
-No money for electric and heating bills? Not to worry, there are programs that will subsidize you.
-Are you or someone in your family disabled? No worries, you will qualilfy for SSI (a monthly check), as well as a host of other social programs just for the disabled (reduced transportation costs, housing, etc).
-Are you a senior citizen? Yup, you also qualify for government medical (medicare), SS check, housing/transportation programs etc.
-Do you have no money for medical needs? No worries, you can just get on medicaid and everything will be covered.
-Dental problems? Yup lots of free dental also.
-Let's not forget your pets! Have no money to spay/nueter them? No worries, there are a number of free places to do that across the city.
-Have no money to do things with your kids? No worries, go to any local NYC park and join the recreational centers..kids under 18 are FREE, and have access to all sports, karate, swimming pools, weights, aerobics, etc.
-And worth noting: sick of being poor in NYC? NYC will PAY your travel expenses to get you to a better place just about anywhere.
And this is but a partial list of social progams available to NYC residents who are poor/low-income. So in theory your idea of "chaos" and "revolt" would ring true if there were not such an extensive social program safety net. However, so long as those programs keep flowing, there will be NO revolt. If the economy collapses, crime will go up EVERYWHERE, which has nothing to do with NYC or specific to NYC. However, living in NYC is such that if you are poor, or become poor, you can live, and live decently without turning to a life a crime. And that in and of istself is a reason why crime, despite the downward spiral in our economy, has not only NOT increased, it has reached record lows.
Now whether we can sustain all these programs, and for how long, is a whole other story.
Looks like we may be headed for another record low crime rate in 2010 !
So far,in The Bronx,crime in the first weeks of the year are down by over 20% from the same period in 2009 with the murder rate down by 50% !
Looks like we may be headed for another record low crime rate in 2010 !
So far,in The Bronx,crime in the first weeks of the year are down by over 20% from the same period in 2009 with the murder rate down by 50% !
It has also been the coldest winter in a while.
I've also noticed that Felony Assaults are still rising this year compared to last year. (it was the only crime category that rose in 2009)
It has only been a couple weeks, so I would not extrapolate much from that. Once we get through the first quarter, I would say we can start making some valid assessments. However, we are off to a good start. The police know that the ONLY way to bring the crime rate down is to target higher crime areas, so there is no doubt that they will be spending an inordinate amount of energy and resources in these areas, as they should be.
Who knows whether the record low crime rates can be sustained despite the extreme budget cuts coming. But so far..so good.
Wow...it was sad to read how some neighborhoods in Brooklyn, although better than they were, are still leading the pack in crime. Anyone know what the murder rate per capita of each borough is for 2009? That will tell you which borough is the "thug borough".
Two cases of dog beatings, now this? What's going on at the Grant Houses?!
funny you mention this. i have noticed recently that the new graffiti is to scrawl the url to your myspace site on the train station wall....poor kids prolly dont even know what an url is.....but funny to see how technology advanced that now the internet plays a part in graffiti tags.
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