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Looking at the cities in NC with more than 100,000, their growth gains between 2010 and 2014.
List from the largest to the smallest gain in population and percent of growth.
Charlotte gain 78,534 at 10.1%
Raleigh gain 36,004 at 8.9%
Cary gain 19,993 at 14.7%
Durham gain 13,563 at 10.3%
Greensboro gain 12,709 at 5.1%
Winston Salem gain 9,635 at 4.2%
Wilmington gain 7,181 at 6.7%
High Point gain 4,258 at 4.3%
Fayetteville gain 3,384 at 1.1%
What surprise me was Fayetteville at being last on the list.
Cary had the largest per cent of growth at 14.7%
Charlotte had the largest increase in population.
But all cities did not lose any population, which is good.
The same could be said for Apex & Holly Springs in Wake County. Apex was under 5000 in 1990 and at 44,000 today. Holly Springs was a spit of a place that was just over 900 people in 1990 and it's now passed 30,000. Given their numbers, I suspect that Indian Trail and Holly Springs have a lot in common in terms of being practically new towns.
With its more than double the land area of Apex, it's easy to imagine Huntersville nearing 90,000 without any more annexation. Apex will need to expand its limits to reach the same sort of municipal population.
The wild card is clearing the hurdles of the new annexation laws. It would seem to me that the only places that could get easily annexed are the ones that are yet to be developed.
The Wake County towns of Apex, Holly Springs and Wake Forest are seeing tremendous growth. Apex is annexing land to the West of NC-540 at a pretty decent clip. According to their most recent Development Report they're expecting the towns population to grow from the current 46k to 70k by 2025 and nearly 85k by 2030. That's some pretty decent growth for a town currently at roughly 19 square miles.
They are not only building detached single family homes, but there are many new townhouse and some multi-family buildings either currently under construction or already approved. Too much new retail in the pipeline to even run down the details. It's either a very exciting time to live in Apex, or rough time if you're a NIMBY.
The Wake County towns of Apex, Holly Springs and Wake Forest are seeing tremendous growth. Apex is annexing land to the West of NC-540 at a pretty decent clip. According to their most recent Development Report they're expecting the towns population to grow from the current 46k to 70k by 2025 and nearly 85k by 2030. That's some pretty decent growth for a town currently at roughly 19 square miles.
They are not only building detached single family homes, but there are many new townhouse and some multi-family buildings either currently under construction or already approved. Too much new retail in the pipeline to even run down the details. It's either a very exciting time to live in Apex, or rough time if you're a NIMBY.
Oddly, or perhaps intentionally, the new annexation laws don't necessarily hurt suburban expansion like they do core city expansion. If a developers assemble land, they can choose to petition for annexation to get services. Most of this land lies on the perimeter of our metros adjacent to suburban towns.
Looking at the cities in NC with more than 100,000, their growth gains between 2010 and 2014.
List from the largest to the smallest gain in population and percent of growth.
Charlotte gain 78,534 at 10.1%2721
Raleigh gain 36,004 at 8.9%3078
Cary gain 19,993 at 14.7%2857
Durham gain 13,563 at 10.3%2346
Greensboro gain 12,709 at 5.1%2234
Winston Salem gain 9,635 at 4.2%1806
Wilmington gain 7,181 at 6.7%2207
High Point gain 4,258 at 4.3%2019
Fayetteville gain 3,384 at 1.1%1398
What surprise me was Fayetteville at being last on the list.
Cary had the largest per cent of growth at 14.7%
Charlotte had the largest increase in population.
But all cities did not lose any population, which is good.
Adding to CLT1985's post above but keeping it all in one page for context of any replies...
Municipal densities are in red bold. Not surprisingly, Fayetteville is lowest given their huge land annexation a few years ago. Wasn't that military bases? In any case, their land area is now larger than Raleigh's. The Triad densities are particularly low when compared to the the Triangle and Charlotte. Of all the cities on the list in the three major metros, their three are the lowest of the bunch. Raleigh, Cary and Charlotte are the three most densely populated municipalities in order and Durham is right in the middle of the bunch.
Note: Densities are calculated from the Census page data barring any calculator mistakes on my part.
I think it's pretty safe to assume that both Raleigh and Charlotte could attain a density metric of 3500 fairly easily. Raleigh probably sooner because it's already above the 3000 threshold. When that happens, Charlotte will top a million and Raleigh will top a half million. Once at those thresholds, I would think that the population growth would get slower unless there were some massive redevelopment opportunities or if they were able to grow their land base again. Both cities just have too much of their land tied up in already developed single family housing to move the needle more rapidly.
Looking at the cities in NC with more than 100,000, their growth gains between 2010 and 2014.
List from the largest to the smallest gain in population and percent of growth.
Charlotte gain 78,534 at 10.1%
Raleigh gain 36,004 at 8.9%
Cary gain 19,993 at 14.7%
Durham gain 13,563 at 10.3%
Greensboro gain 12,709 at 5.1%
Winston Salem gain 9,635 at 4.2%
Wilmington gain 7,181 at 6.7%
High Point gain 4,258 at 4.3%
Fayetteville gain 3,384 at 1.1%
What surprise me was Fayetteville at being last on the list.
Cary had the largest per cent of growth at 14.7%
Charlotte had the largest increase in population.
But all cities did not lose any population, which is good.
Looking at the cities in NC with more than 100,000, their growth gains between 2010 and 2014.
List from the largest to the smallest gain in population and percent of growth.
Charlotte gain 78,534 at 10.1%2721
Raleigh gain 36,004 at 8.9%3078
Cary gain 19,993 at 14.7%2857
Durham gain 13,563 at 10.3%2346
Greensboro gain 12,709 at 5.1%2234
Winston Salem gain 9,635 at 4.2%1806
Wilmington gain 7,181 at 6.7%2207
High Point gain 4,258 at 4.3%2019
Fayetteville gain 3,384 at 1.1%1398
What surprise me was Fayetteville at being last on the list.
Cary had the largest per cent of growth at 14.7%
Charlotte had the largest increase in population.
But all cities did not lose any population, which is good.
Adding to CLT1985's post above but keeping it all in one page for context of any replies...
Municipal densities are in red bold. Not surprisingly, Fayetteville is lowest given their huge land annexation a few years ago. Wasn't that military bases? In any case, their land area is now larger than Raleigh's. The Triad densities are particularly low when compared to the the Triangle and Charlotte. Of all the cities on the list in the three major metros, their three are the lowest of the bunch. Raleigh, Cary and Charlotte are the three most densely populated municipalities in order and Durham is right in the middle of the bunch.
Note: Densities are calculated from the Census page data barring any calculator mistakes on my part.
I think it's pretty safe to assume that both Raleigh and Charlotte could attain a density metric of 3500 fairly easily. Raleigh probably sooner because it's already above the 3000 threshold. When that happens, Charlotte will top a million and Raleigh will top a half million. Once at those thresholds, I would think that the population growth would get slower unless there were some massive redevelopment opportunities or if they were able to grow their land base again. Both cities just have too much of their land tied up in already developed single family housing to move the needle more rapidly.
Wilmington's density will rocket up that list by 2020. It is right now undervalued by the huge River Lights development, which has been annexed but currently sits vacant. Construction on the first neighborhood starts this summer, build out will take 15 years or so. Plus the only annexations are either parcels outside city limits that are being redeveloped as multi family or redeveloped into commercial. And there is A LOT of infill being built right now. Available land is decreasing significantly and lots of multi family or high density single family is being built within the City Limits. I would expect it to lead NC in the long run, within 20 years probably.
Wilmington's density will rocket up that list by 2020. It is right now undervalued by the huge River Lights development, which has been annexed but currently sits vacant. Construction on the first neighborhood starts this summer, build out will take 15 years or so. Plus the only annexations are either parcels outside city limits that are being redeveloped as multi family or redeveloped into commercial. And there is A LOT of infill being built right now. Available land is decreasing significantly and lots of multi family or high density single family is being built within the City Limits. I would expect it to lead NC in the long run, within 20 years probably.
I doubt Wilmington will lead the state in density, Mecklenburg county leads the state in the construction of multi family units with the majority being in Charlotte. Not only are urban neighborhoods surrounding center city experiencing tremendous growth but suburban areas like SouthPark are becoming more dense. Mecklenberg has less undeveloped land & is already the most dense county in the state with Charlotte making up almost 80% of the population
I doubt Wilmington will lead the state in density, Mecklenburg county leads the state in the construction of multi family units with the majority being in Charlotte. Not only are urban neighborhoods surrounding center city experiencing tremendous growth but suburban areas like SouthPark are becoming more dense. Mecklenberg has less undeveloped land & is already the most dense county in the state with Charlotte making up almost 80% of the population
Wilmington is 41 square miles of land (.5 of water). At its current population of 113K its at 2756. 2 of those square miles are RiverLights vacant land that was just annexed, subtracting that gives you a current of 2897. There are numerous significant developments besides RiverLights including Northern Downtown Riverfront development, Barclay Point and nearby development, UNCW student housing developments and Intracoastal Waterway developments....none of which are annexations. Percentage wise its very significant and within the existing footprint.
Projected population in 2040 is 160K in the city, if the land stays around 42 square miles, that is 3800 per...will be interesting once the actual census numbers come in.
Wilmington is 41 square miles of land (.5 of water). At its current population of 113K its at 2756. 2 of those square miles are RiverLights vacant land that was just annexed, subtracting that gives you a current of 2897. There are numerous significant developments besides RiverLights including Northern Downtown Riverfront development, Barclay Point and nearby development, UNCW student housing developments and Intracoastal Waterway developments....none of which are annexations. Percentage wise its very significant and within the existing footprint.
Projected population in 2040 is 160K in the city, if the land stays around 42 square miles, that is 3800 per...will be interesting once the actual census numbers come in.
But Charlotte is growing at a much faster clip & won't spread out much more than the 300 sq miles it currently occupies. Charlotte projects to have 1.2-1.3 million people by 2040 which translates to 3900-4000 per.sq mile & it's not out of the question that Charlotte could grow faster than projected.
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