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Either you haven't read anything I have posted or your comprehension of the information just doesn’t fit your agenda.
Here are the sources you sent me. Chris Bagley some staff writer for a small newspaper. I believe it was North County. From what I have been able to research about this guy is he mostly writes puff pieces anything form medical marijuana to zoning limits in wine country. I don’t know how much is his research or just notes given to him to shape into a story.
He is definitely not an economist, or any type of expert on real estate or anything to do with the so called “real estate bubble”.
Another source is Will Careless another independent small local San Diego staff writer. As with Chris Bagley, he is also just another opinion piece parrot head.
Lastly is some 30 something bloger that started a website full of his personal opinion not real research of fact.
These people you quote seem to be your peer group 30 something. I’ll paint the following picture, as I know these people all too well.
They grew up in an area (San Diego) where affluence was all around. All they had to do is play, mom and dad didn’t put any pressures on them and anything they wanted they were either given or they pitched a fit to get. Sound familiar so far, I thought so. These privileged kids began to grow up and the house they grew up in they had to leave. That is some leave, a growing problem in CA is kids that never leave their parents home.
Now they had to face reality that they couldn’t start out at the same level of comfort they were leaving. Well that isn’t fare is it? The reality is that mom and dad didn’t tell junior that they didn’t start out in that house either. The reality most likely is that their parents had to struggle to buy that same home. Yep that’s right starting out is a struggle, and moving up is no different. Most people can’t buy the same house as their parents when they start out. Just like their parents they also can’t do it with two new cars, especially if one or more of them are ultra luxury lease vehicles and a house full of new furniture, gadgets, and state of the art toys.
I'm friends with some of those people!! lol The same people who bought a house they couldn't afford in San Diego. Now they are whining. A starter home in San Diego is a lil different than it was when our parents bought homes too. I agree with this last post....however ....what in the heck does this have to do with what we have been talking about? Other than the fact that yes.....my peer group bought into real estate they really couldn't support with their incomes.That's why I moved away...my husband and I were a little smarter than that. There is no reason to be rude here because I have a different opinion than you. Tell me something ...why havent you addressed what I've said about the ARM's coming due and how a large number of people (no not all) will have to sell (if they can ) or foreclose when the payment adjusts. Incomes havent gone up that much. In fact it was just on the news that a large percentage of Americans haven't received a pay raise in 3 years!! You deny this for some reason...and it's very real.
I'm sorry if you can't connect the dots! I don't have the time you obviously due to research every writer...but my husband has been in finance for over 25 years(he's 47....since your big on the age thing) and lets just say he has to deal with the very people I have been talking about. I would say he is pretty informed. There's also more news about the housing bubble in the over inflated markets now more than ever. I suppose everyone is wrong and 30 something right?
I bet your a Rush Limbaugh fan? Gotta go .....my mom just finished my laundry!! .....
I'm friends with some of those people!! lol The same people who bought a house they couldn't afford in San Diego. Now they are whining. A starter home in San Diego is a lil different than it was when our parents bought homes too. I agree with this last post....however ....what in the heck does this have to do with what we have been talking about? Other than the fact that yes.....my peer group bought into real estate they really couldn't support with their incomes.That's why I moved away...my husband and I were a little smarter than that. There is no reason to be rude here because I have a different opinion than you. Tell me something ...why havent you addressed what I've said about the ARM's coming due and how a large number of people (no not all) will have to sell (if they can ) or foreclose when the payment adjusts. Incomes havent gone up that much. In fact it was just on the news that a large percentage of Americans haven't received a pay raise in 3 years!! You deny this for some reason...and it's very real.
I'm sorry if you can't connect the dots! I don't have the time you obviously due to research every writer...but my husband has been in finance for over 25 years(he's 47....since your big on the age thing) and lets just say he has to deal with the very people I have been talking about. I would say he is pretty informed. There's also more news about the housing bubble in the over inflated markets now more than ever. I suppose everyone is wrong and 30 something right?
I bet your a Rush Limbaugh fan? Gotta go .....my mom just finished my laundry!! .....
Quote from RedNC: Either you haven't read anything I have posted or your comprehension of the information just doesn’t fit your agenda.
No....I just dont agree with you. No agenda...just reality. What's your agenda? By the way...who was the original sponsor of the Ted Mack Amateur
hour? My husband wants to test YOUR age.
Not in all areas is the price to rent (throw your money away) cheaper than buying.
It certainly is in the DC area. I know someone renting a 3BR/2.5BA townhouse for $1500/month. To BUY the same property, the mortgage would be at least $2200/month ($370,000 townhouse). We're not even counting the cost of property tax and maintenance.
The "rent/throw your money away argument" falls apart in areas like DC, NYC, LA, San Fran, etc. May not be like this where YOU are, but in certain parts of the country, at least for now, it IS cheaper to RENT.
The same people who bought a house they couldn't afford in San Diego. Now they are whining. A starter home in San Diego is a lil different than it was when our parents bought homes too.
The whining also fits. You’re right, a starter home is different, it’s called a Condo.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
I agree with this last post....however ....what in the heck does this have to do with what we have been talking about?
Sometimes these posts take on a life of their own. I didn’t start it in that direction, I just commented on what was there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
There is no reason to be rude here because I have a different opinion than you.
I don’t think I’ve been rude to you. Maybe you should reread some of your posts. My posts are in rebuttal to your posts and they are from people in the real estate business or economist.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
Tell me something ...why havent you addressed what I've said about the ARM's coming due and how a large number of people (no not all) will have to sell (if they can ) or foreclose when the payment adjusts.
Go back and reread post # 186 & 179
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
I'm sorry if you can't connect the dots! I don't have the time you obviously due to research every writer...but my husband has been in finance for over 25 years(he's 47....since your big on the age thing) and lets just say he has to deal with the very people I have been talking about. I would say he is pretty informed.
You can connect these dots, but you can’t do simple research on people you are quoting.
As for your husband dealing with these people, I bet he also deals with people that aren’t taking out ARM. Or does he specialize in these ARM’s. If he was a bartender, would he dealing with people that drink? Would he think all people are drunks, or just some.
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94
I bet your a Rush Limbaugh fan? Gotta go .....my mom just finished my laundry!! .....
This one actually vindicates all my posts. What it tells me is you only seek information that supports your agenda.
Wow, I go out of town for a few days, and all kinds of exciting stuff happens here!! My two cents:
I think many of Shannon's points are well taken. Foreclosures sharply up, too many ARMs, people treating their homes like an ATM. Bankrutpcy laws have tightened. The creative financing has gotten ridiculous and there is no denying many people are in homes they cannot afford. There is an undercurrent in Cal that things have gotten a bit crazy and I think many Californians are wound pretty tight from the stress.
However, for a few reasons, I don't agree that these facts will cause "everyone" to live in a state of "perpetual bankrupcty" and that the housing market is "going bust." (BTW - when I use the term "you" below it's generic, not addressed to any person)
1) People base their opinion on their own perceptions - San Diego has distinguished itself in the media as having a serious housing market problem. As I've said, these wealthy markets have many people who must grapple with the fact that they cannot afford the area. To have a middle class life in SD, you almost have to be with the uber-wealthy. If this is not you, hanging out in an apartment waiting for the market to "go bust" may not be a good plan. Better perhaps to move to a "regular" town. It's not the economy, it's you. Disappointing news? Tell me about it. I live in Fresno.
2) The economy is still sound overall. Unemployment is fairly low. Foreclosures, though soaring, still represent a small segment of the home owner population. Banks don't want to own property and will work with owners to avoid foreclosure. John Smith makes $40K and bought a $500K house?? Bad move, won't work, shame on realtor/lender for paving the way. But he will find a way without foreclosure. Americans have historically proven to be a resilient and ingenuous group, with the market allowing people to create new jobs and new ways of solving economic problems. In fact, Californians who rent here are increasingly buying prop out of state to build equity that way. Also, serious problems with defense industry years ago without economic wipeout. It also bears noting that economists, including Bernacke, have consistently concluded that the housing market will suffer a correction, not a bust. Only the media seems to feed the bubble theory.
3) There is a "sour grapes" bent in various posts from people who either never bought in Cal or sold too early. It cannot be denied that if you bought in late 1990s and sold before 2006, serious money could have been made very easily. If you didn't participate, you missed a great opportunity. It's great to play safe, but there is a time to shake your moneymaker, and Ca RE for the past 6 years was that time. If you didn't you missed good money. Notice I did not say you made a "mistake." Life is way, way bigger than money and there are other factors to consider. I'll use myself as an example. From a financial standpoint, it would be better for me to either stay in Cal or practice law in NC. l won't do either - I plan on moving to NC, where I will only read books with pictures in them! But I recognize that in 5 years, my peers will make lots of money, which they will invest and turn into bigger money. My biggest claim to fame, in the meantime, will be that my $250K house appreciated $25K and that I only have 5 years left on my small mortgage. A laudable achievement, sure, but it hardly moves the ball forward in terms of true financial reward. it just doesn't compare with the people in the game. Nor does it make me much of a player in RE. I'll be leaving money on the table, plain and simple. It's a missed opportunity, but not a mistake (I hope!) because it's best for my family. But I think seeing it as lost money is better than trying to convince the state of Cal that the joke is on them. Rationalization is exhausting - I regularly kick myself for not buying Amazon.com at $20/sh back in 1997 and have spent hours telling myself that really, it is better that I didn't. Really. Really. LOL
quote from Red: You can connect these dots, but you can’t do simple research on people you are quoting.
As for your husband dealing with these people, I bet he also deals with people that aren’t taking out ARM. Or does he specialize in these ARM’s. If he was a bartender, would he dealing with people that drink? Would he think all people are drunks, or just some.
You didn't supply the people's names you were quoting. And I DID quote an economist. My husband is a little "higher rank" than a "loan officer".( He is cracking up right now.) At any rate ....I was trying to apply a little humor to my last post....guess you didnt get it. TornadoAlley even got it. By the way I agree with alot of points you make...I just dont think California is going to be bubble free like you. And you are absolutely right about my peer group trying to keep up with the Jones's. Some of my friends have made some really bad decisions and a couple of them are about bankrupt. My husband keeps telling me to get the guest room ready! Say what you will...those ARM's that are coming due in 2007 are going to be hurting quite a few people. I guess we will just have to wait and see how many of that 44k number bring their payments current. By the way....do you own any property in California? Not being sarcastic....just wondering?
Last edited by shannon94; 07-24-2006 at 07:32 PM..
Wow, I go out of town for a few days, and all kinds of exciting stuff happens here!! My two cents:
I think many of Shannon's points are well taken. Foreclosures sharply up, too many ARMs, people treating their homes like an ATM. Bankrutpcy laws have tightened. The creative financing has gotten ridiculous and there is no denying many people are in homes they cannot afford. There is an undercurrent in Cal that things have gotten a bit crazy and I think many Californians are wound pretty tight from the stress.
However, for a few reasons, I don't agree that these facts will cause "everyone" to live in a state of "perpetual bankrupcty" and that the housing market is "going bust." (BTW - when I use the term "you" below it's generic, not addressed to any person)
13) There is a "sour grapes" bent in various posts from people who either never bought in Cal or sold too early. It cannot be denied that if you bought in late 1990s and sold before 2006, serious money could have been made very easily. If you didn't participate, you missed a great opportunity. It's great to play safe, but there is a time to shake your moneymaker, and Ca RE for the past 6 years was that time. If you didn't you missed good money. Notice I did not say you made a "mistake." Life is way, way bigger than money and there are other factors to consider. I'll use myself as an example. From a financial standpoint, it would be better for me to either stay in Cal or practice law in NC. l won't do either - I plan on moving to NC, where I will only read books with pictures in them! But I recognize that in 5 years, my peers will make lots of money, which they will invest and turn into bigger money. My biggest claim to fame, in the meantime, will be that my $250K house appreciated $25K and that I only have 5 years left on my small mortgage. A laudable achievement, sure, but it hardly moves the ball forward in terms of true financial reward. it just doesn't compare with the people in the game. Nor does it make me much of a player in RE. I'll be leaving money on the table, plain and simple. It's a missed opportunity, but not a mistake (I hope!) because it's best for my family. But I think seeing it as lost money is better than trying to convince the state of Cal that the joke is on them. Rationalization is exhausting - I regularly kick myself for not buying Amazon.com at $20/sh back in 1997 and have spent hours telling myself that really, it is better that I didn't. Really. Really. LOL
Hey Connie
Yes my perpetual state of bankruptcy was a little over the top...I was just trying to make a point....my sense of humor kicking in...
Your right I would have loved to have got in say 99 and sold last year!! We chose to have one income though until my daughter started school so it wasn't going to happen. Raising my child myself was more important than money...so we moved to Texas as hard as it was. Sure I could have done the ARM thing...but no thanks. I'll have my house payed off in 7 years in Texas. But now I'm living the financial lifestyle my friends in San Diego wish they were. You won't regret moving.....trust me. We found the best part about moving is that we can vacation in Cali several times a year . So far every time we've gone back though we end up paying for dinner because our friends are so strapped to their house payment and have no room left on their credit cards. I'm worried about some of them. I guess we will all just wait and see what happens to places like San Diego.
One more interesting thing.....if you go to uhaul and say ....you are going to move to Charlotte from San Diego...it will cost you $4000+ to leave San Diego but going the other way it will only cost you $900+. Why? Because more people are leaving California than moving in. Gee I wonder why? lol
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