NoVA Home Prices Over the Next Few Years? (Alexandria, Fort Belvoir: condominium, townhomes)

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

There were many positive reasons why we moved back, but one negative reason why we decided against Williamsburg was that the future economic prospect of that region did not look that great, yet the prices did not reflect this. There seemed to be some irrational exuberance about the area, which was unsupported by demography and economic forecasting.

There are a number of places that are like that that could perhaps be termed "aspirational communities". There's no vibrant industry or job market like we have here in Northern VA or in the SF Bay Area or NYC but people want to live there anyway for other reasons. Out West I'd put Durango, Santa Fe, Carmel, and Palm Springs in that category. Williamsburg has historic cache, a very well respected college, decent golf and other outdoor recreation, and a critical mass of affluence that tends to attract others to it.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

There are a number of places that are like that that could perhaps be termed "aspirational communities". There's no vibrant industry or job market like we have here in Northern VA or in the SF Bay Area or NYC but people want to live there anyway for other reasons. Out West I'd put Durango, Santa Fe, Carmel, and Palm Springs in that category. Williamsburg has historic cache, a very well respected college, decent golf and other outdoor recreation, and a critical mass of affluence that tends to attract others to it.

That's a very good observation.

One thing about Williamsburg I noticed, however, is the increasing number of young affluent families with small children in the recent years. Now, I tend to like that trend, but it is a trend that can only be supported with long-term economic development, which as of now appears to be non-existent in Williamsburg.

Santa Fe (or Colorado Springs) is where ILD and wife might be headed after the children leave the nest. I like much about our region, but I do miss real mountains.

[hilsmom]

The hybrid loans (the 80/15/5s and 80/10/10s, etc) are incredibly hard to find these days. Here is my (probably biased) opinion - the hybrid loans were taken away because the banks screwed up so damn bad last decade giving money to anyone with a pulse and now they are trying to look like they cleaned up their act (even though they truly haven't at the top levels) so much so that they now make it next to impossible for people even with excellent credit to buy with anything less than 20%.

We were so lucky to have access to a VA Loan when we bought, which allowed us to put nothing down if we so chose. We refused to pay PMI and didn't want to drain all of our savings to buy a home. In the end, we put down 10% (profit from our previous home's sale) and used the rest of the money from that to do the updates to the main level of our house that it so desperately needed.

Now, we also have been trying to navigate the home equity line process, and wound up putting the new roof on a 0% credit card for the time being while we attempt to reapply after the summer selling season when we hope to have more equity built up. I will be honest - I did not realize that the banks were being so strict on home equity lines, too, on the LTV numbers. The people at CapOne have now had me apply twice and get rejected after they kept saying "Oh, this should be no problem." It isn't our credit - it's the national office saying no, which makes me angry because just a few years ago, they were giving these things away like giving away candy. We do have the money in savings, so if it comes down to it, we'll use that, but people finance home repairs with home equity every day. I have heard the credit unions might be have higher LTV ratios, so we might attempt that in the summer instead of going to CapOne again.

Anyway, I'm pretty annoyed with the banks new, inflexible rules lately, when largely, it was a problem of their own making. They are making things ridiculously hard even for people who have excellent records/credit histories. If we're having this much trouble, I don't even want to think what things are like for the average person just trying to get by.

[Caladium]

Before we get too sidetracked with discussions on other parts of the state.... my only reason for bringing up Williamsburg was to point out that you can't always predict which way housing prices will go. If prices are going up in Williamsburg, even though it doesn't make sense to me, its possible they could go up in Nova, too.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

One thing about Williamsburg I noticed, however, is the increasing number of young affluent families with small children in the recent years. Now, I tend to like that trend, but it is a trend that can only be supported with long-term economic development, which as of now appears to be non-existent in Williamsburg.

I think a lot of those commute to jobs in Newport News or Norfolk. Many may be defense contractors working at a base or academics at CNU, which has really grown the past few years. I've been down there at rush hour and noticed quite a flow going West on 64 in the morning and coming back in the afternoon.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I think a lot of those commute to jobs in Newport News or Norfolk. Many may be defense contractors working at a base or academics at CNU, which has really grown the past few years. I've been down there at rush hour and noticed quite a flow going West on 64 in the morning and coming back in the afternoon.

Williamsburg is to the west of Newport News and Norfolk. The morning traffic is from east to west, not west-bound.

The economy of Newport News is not in good shape. Norfolk has been hit hard by the downsizing of the military (especially the Navy) and will be hurt even more by the sequestration. That area simply does not have the kind of economic critical mass NoVA has. Take out the military and some healthcare work, there isn't much else (except of course tourism in Williamsburg).

Also, the traffic on the highways during the summer months can be quite outrageous as are the bottlenecks the tunnels become. It's really too bad. That area could be quite the affluent, vibrant beach area, with second homes for the well-to-do from NoVA. As it stands, much (not all, but much) of the area is quite low rent and woefully underdeveloped economically.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

Williamsburg is to the west of Newport News and Norfolk. The morning traffic is from east to west, not west-bound..

Yes, I was turned around and meant West to East in the AM. Must be ingrained in me as a Californian that one heads West to the ocean.

I don't think the Naval presence in Norfolk has been significantly reduced (not to say it won't be) and CNU has definitely grown. But you may have better data on that. I just know what I've experienced driving from here to go to meetings at the base once in awhile over the past few years. There's still significant traffic between WBG and NRK at rush hour.

By the way I do second you on Santa Fe. I really like it there myself.

[Flamingo13]

2013 Assessment came today - 9.19% increase

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by Flamingo13

2013 Assessment came today - 9.19% increase

Congrats!

[Flamingo13]

Thanks Cava - that's good and bad - good obviously for selling whenever. I wonder if it's due to the BRAC move? More folks looking to move inside the beltway? We didn't do any improvements (although we need them! LOL)