How long before the housing market bubble trickles to the DC exurbs? (Washington: real estate market, 2013)

[OrangeFish]

Originally Posted by AmyinNOVA

Or, you can just take the VRE. I commute from Fredericksburg to Alexandria every day and taking the VRE is a breeze. Only takes an hour and it would certainly take a lot longer driving. My company does give me a smartbenefit every month, but even if I had to pay full price... it would still be cheaper than paying for the gas to sit in 95 traffic all the time.

If I had such a long commute it would really (negatively) impact the after-school activities for my kids. Driving vs. VRE wouldn't really matter.

[BMWZ4RUlz]

It isn't "shadow inventory"; it is the hedge funds selling in the next year or so that will create downward pressure on the market. This will also stimulate the overall economy though but prices will be coming down. It is inevitable.

If you are looking to sell, do it now.

[Fredesch]

Originally Posted by dshawg1

It isn't "shadow inventory"; it is the hedge funds selling in the next year or so that will create downward pressure on the market. This will also stimulate the overall economy though but prices will be coming down. It is inevitable.

If you are looking to sell, do it now.

I think the close in areas inventory are already unwinding, by next year all the folks not yet able to sell will have done so, so I can't see any group selling so many houses that it would depress the close in market. If it did we would see people holding on to their properties until that wave passed, just like what happened in my area over the last five years.

[Fallout Zone]

Originally Posted by dshawg1

It isn't "shadow inventory"; it is the hedge funds selling in the next year or so that will create downward pressure on the market. This will also stimulate the overall economy though but prices will be coming down. It is inevitable.

If you are looking to sell, do it now.

Selling what? There have been a couple of flips over the past 4 years, but every purchase in my neighborhood has been a family moving in. Has there been a lot of institutional buying outside of the Beltway?

[BMWZ4RUlz]

If you have a house inside the beltway, you probably don't need to worry about $ anyways so doesn't matter if something goes down 10%.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by Fallout Zone

Selling what? There have been a couple of flips over the past 4 years, but every purchase in my neighborhood has been a family moving in. Has there been a lot of institutional buying outside of the Beltway?

Yes, in exurbs there was, though far less in real bubble areas like Arizona/California/Florida

[mshan242709]

Originally Posted by dshawg1

It isn't "shadow inventory"; it is the hedge funds selling in the next year or so that will create downward pressure on the market. This will also stimulate the overall economy though but prices will be coming down. It is inevitable.

If you are looking to sell, do it now.

Blackstone (Buy it, Fix it, Sell it):

Blackstone's real estate bets - CNBC (start at 3:15 mark)

[JohnMatrix100]

Originally Posted by dshawg1

It isn't "shadow inventory"; it is the hedge funds selling in the next year or so that will create downward pressure on the market. This will also stimulate the overall economy though but prices will be coming down. It is inevitable.

If you are looking to sell, do it now.

I doubt you will see much downward pressure on prices, and even if there is some it will be in certain geographical markets.

In NOVA, anything in decent neighborhoods and inside the beltway is in high demand. I know of two people personally who have put homes on the market in the past month. The first went in 7 days, the second had 25 groups on its first open house (which was this past Sunday).

IMO, with Tysons transforming and the Mosaic district nearby on Gallows Road, SFH within a 10 mile radius will see fairly constant demand, and decent appreciation, for some time. That's a pretty huge area that includes Falls Church, McLean/Langley, Vienna, and Seven Corners. Most of the new residential construction in this area is condo and apartment high rises.

Outside the beltway is a whole different story. Traffic becomes a major quality of life issue, urban options are limited and there are still some foreclosures coming onto the market. You do get more space, but that is not without costs.

[frostopsy]

Originally Posted by dshawg1

The only thing driving this semi-boom right now is NO SUPPLY. That will change come winter/next spring. Blackstone and others are itching for profits.
Looking to buy now? Wait.
Looking to sell? Do it.

Thank you for pointing this out! It's not location or the next housing boom, its lack of supply. What you have is a good amount of people who are "stuck" because they are underwater and can't afford to move. That limits supply. Home builders slammed on the brakes years ago when the market fell apart. So theres not a whole lot of inventory out there.

I am worried that "re-inflating" the housing bubble is going to be a bad thing in the long run. It will only be a matter of time before housing prices are out of reach of young people once again, people borrow far more than they can afford, and we are back to where we were a few years ago. None of that would be a good thing. It wasn't good last time, how is this time any different?

[NovaOne]

It's different because lending standards are much more strict. We are seeing a good year because of the back-logged demand. Future year swill be much more even in terms of demand, or I would hope. Real estate is a cyclic market, so there is no avoiding the up and downs. I am just hoping for gentler swings in the future.