How long before the housing market bubble trickles to the DC exurbs? (Leesburg: short sales, real estate)

[va_lucky]

I live in the Frederickburg Area/Spotsylvania County and I am wondering how long it will take for DC housing prices to go up like they did in 05-06?

Zillow shows my house as still going down every month so I am not sure if it is accurate. Sure, I can see a realtor for a more accurate value but they seem a little bit too excited to short sale my home since I am upside down.

I really would like to know what your thoughts are on what the housing market may be looking like in the Fredericksburg area now and in the future. I might want to get out when I can break even.

Thanks!

[JohnMatrix100]

I think its going to take a while. Areas closer to the DC metro area will rebound faster since the traffic situation is so bad around here, and gas prices don't help when trying to sell in the exurbs either. The new I95 lanes will help with commutes in Frederickburg, so at least you have that going for you.

Calculate an average increase of 2% YoY on the current Zillow value if your house until you reach your break-even point. This should get you a ballpark estimate.

Best of luck to you! I can only imagine how frustrating it must be living in an "under water" home.

[va_lucky]

Originally Posted by JohnMatrix100

I think its going to take a while. Areas closer to the DC metro area will rebound faster since the traffic situation is so bad around here, and gas prices don't help when trying to sell in the exurbs either. The new I95 lanes will help with commutes in Frederickburg, so at least you have that going for you.

Calculate an average increase of 2% YoY on the current Zillow value if your house until you reach your break-even point. This should get you a ballpark estimate.

Best of luck to you! I can only imagine how frustrating it must be living in an "under water" home.

Well thank you very much for this information. It looks like my house is going to be under water for 12 years based on that calculation. I bought it for 195k when it was worth 230k. Now it is worth 147k.

[stpickrell]

Two places on my street in Leesburg (near downtown, built in the 1970s, maybe 2500-3500 SF between all the levels, on a 0.2-0.25 acre lot) ... they went under contract in under a week. I'm seeing quick movement here. My cousin who's out in Front Royal-Winchester reports things are moving quickly.

I don't see listings dominated by short sales/foreclosures the way they were two years ago.

But the prices aren't moving up.

[kww]

Originally Posted by va_lucky

Well thank you very much for this information. It looks like my house is going to be under water for 12 years based on that calculation. I bought it for 195k when it was worth 230k. Now it is worth 147k.

dont follow zillow. their algorithm has too much sway in pricing

get an agent to run comps for you.

[BT Lover]

Originally Posted by kww

dont follow zillow. their algorithm has too much sway in pricing

get an agent to run comps for you.

Redfin seems to be pretty accurate and they can do comp reports for free. But, I agree, Zillow will give anyone a heart attack with their estimates.

[va_lucky]

Thanks all..Redfin says my house is worth 132k ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

lol

[Fredesch]

I think exburbs will have a long while to wait. Houses close in are increasing quickly, homes in my neighborhood went up about 10 percent over the last month or two based on sales reported in the neighborhood newsletter. The Post real estate today showed most of Prince William county gaining no more than 3 percent over the last year while the Gainsville area was down.

Because the three most important things in real estate are location, location, location, I think the farther out you go, the slower the price recovery will be.

[mshan242709]

"Huge Geographic Differences:

The US housing market can no longer be painted with one brush, as the housing recovery is playing out very differently across the country. Here are some anecdotes gleaned from our consulting team:



Florida on sale to the world. Investors, investors, and investors. From Russia to China to the UK to Brazil, Florida is attracting investors from all over the world. Domestically, the institutional single-family renters are competing with local flippers, too. Good finished lots are now at peak prices in several markets. The active adult/retiree markets continue to experience strong growth. Contact Lesley Deutch for more info.


North Carolina slows after surge.
After a strong Spring housing surge, growing builder competition and a lack of fundamental economic growth are tempering local housing market recoveries. Dwindling lot supplies have also put pressure on builders to get ahead of the pipeline and self-develop communities to maintain volumes. Contact David Kalosis for more info.


DC moving South and West.
New home sales have remained fairly steady since the March 1 start of sequestration. The sequestration impact has been less than expected with buyers still purchasing homes but choosing smaller units or spending less on options and upgrades. Entry-level builders in particular are working closely with buyers who think they may be impacted by budget cuts. Land inventories in the Washington, DC metro area are limited, and the market is expanding southward and westward. Contact Ken Perlman for more info.


Texas economy is growing big!
Entry-level buyers are struggling more here than other places, but that is always the case in Texas. The strongest economies in the country just seem to keep getting stronger, with a notable increase in license plates from other states. The continued economic growth and relocation demand has pushed land, lot and home prices to all-time highs. Apartment construction is booming. Houston is now the largest housing market in the country. In Austin, finished lots in A markets such as Cedar Park and west Austin are becoming more challenging to find, and residential development is migrating northward and westward into regions that had historically been considered B submarkets. Contact Paige Shipp for more info.


Midwest coming back to life.
Once the Midwest thawed out in April, the housing market thawed out as well. Job growth continues to improve, as do sale volumes. Pricing improvement is right around the corner. Builders in both Minneapolis and Chicago are now running out of desirable lots and are seeking viable development opportunities. Contact Lance Ramella for more info.


Phoenix temperature cooling.
The white-hot land market in Phoenix may be cooling off. Homebuilders in the A markets are pausing to carefully consider land prices, after 12 months of rapidly escalating prices. Builders are still pursuing deals but are mindful of the impact of rising mortgage rates and price increases on price sensitive buyers. With temperatures over 100 degrees, it is tough to ascertain true demand in Phoenix right now. Contact Don Walker for more info.


Vegas showing some rate sensitivity.
With most of the land around Vegas owned by the government, Las Vegas land supplies remain limited, and builders continue to search for finished lots. Prices for land continue to rise with public homebuilders dominating the Las Vegas market and aggressively bidding on residential land. In the last few weeks, we are starting to see a little pullback with rising cancellations. Contact Ken Perlman for more info.


Georgia joins the recovery.
The Atlanta housing recovery has officially begun this year, as soaring demand continues in the popular Golden Triangle of North Atlanta. Supply constraints in the north are driving up lot values, especially as the market begins to shift from distressed lot transactions in exurban sprawls to new development within core A and B submarkets. Foreclosure buyers have been big contributors to the recovery. Contact David Kalosis for more info.


Northern California in sticker shock.
New home prices may have risen too much in the Bay Area, where consumers have pulled back due to sticker shock. While sales are still strong and price increases still common, rising mortgage rates and the remarkable appreciation of the last year-plus has left many potential buyers behind. Though the most desirable new home communities can simply move down their interest list with each new release, a general slowdown in appreciation is inevitable. See Dean Wehrli for more info.


Riverside is again driven by coastal pricing.
Rapidly rising prices in Coastal Southern California markets are pushing more buyers back into the more affordable inland markets of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, where sales are surging. Sales rates of 6 to 8 sales per project per month are common in A markets like Corona and Eastvale. Land prices are skyrocketing in the close-in markets, rising over 25% in just the last six months. See Pete Reeb for more info.


Orange County supply is rising.
The birthplace of large-scale small-lot masterplans is exploding, with a plethora of new home communities recently opening. Sales are strong and driven by a significant number of foreign buyers who are moving in. See Mollie Carmichael for more info.


Seattle expands outward.
Homebuilding is pushing out of King County. New home and lot prices in South Snohomish have soared over the last 12 months, and homebuilders are showing an increased appetite for land south of Seattle in Pierce County. As evidence, consider that Tehaleh in Bonney Lake, by Newland Communities, is now the best-selling masterplan in the metro area. See Ken Perlman for more info."


Huge Geographic Differences | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

Investors Now a Concern | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

http://www.realestateconsulting.com/.../LBMI-201204_2

Comments on tv I've seen suggest the national averages about tremendous home price increases are skewed by several large markets, such as California and Phoenix (where they were overbuilt, prices crashed, and now investors have swooped in and bought in bulk as rental property investments because properties were selling below replacement cost. So much of country might be seeing what national headlines see, other than some less informed buyers buying into the exuberance and perhaps overpaying (?)

More individual home buyers probably need looser lending standards rather than lower rates (Ivy Zelman several months ago said that home prices could go up 20% and mortgage rates 200 basis points (~6% 30 year fixed) just to get back to historical average levels of affordability (monthly payment as a percentage of income). But of course national averages don't necessarily translate simply to individual markets).


Ivy Zelman (start at 1 minute mark):http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000152733

[car54]

I normally avoid I-95 like the plague, but the other day, they asked me to take a busload of kids on a field trip to Fredericksburg.

On the way back, I got on I-95 nothbound at Route 3. The southbound side was barely moving. There was no change the entire trip from Route 3 until I exited at Route 123....30 miles. I don't know where the backup started or ended but I watched traffic stopped or at a slow roll for THIRTY MILES!

I wouldn't take a FREE 10,000 sq ft mansion on 10 manicured acres...if I had to endure that insanity every evening.