Seasonality of RE Market (sale, sublet, rent)

[destinedtodave]

My agent acknowledges that the market is slower in winter, but recommends that I solely concentrate on finding the right home, regardless of time of year.

I'm looking for a house in the 450-550k range and it's proving difficult to find the right one and to act quickly enough. Do people really find better deals if they wait until January/February? I have the option of renting for another year, and if I found a great deal on a home I want in the winter, I could sublet. If the options in winter are 10s of thousands cheaper, I'd be fine with just eating the rent cost if I couldn't find a tenant to sublet quickly.

[boyd888]

I certainly wouldn't say winter is tens of thousands cheaper. There is less inventory, but also less people looking. The best deal would likely come buying from someone needing to move quickly and it's not like you have any control over that inventory.

[ersatz]

Originally Posted by destinedtodave

My agent acknowledges that the market is slower in winter, but recommends that I solely concentrate on finding the right home, regardless of time of year.

I'm looking for a house in the 450-550k range and it's proving difficult to find the right one and to act quickly enough. Do people really find better deals if they wait until January/February? I have the option of renting for another year, and if I found a great deal on a home I want in the winter, I could sublet. If the options in winter are 10s of thousands cheaper, I'd be fine with just eating the rent cost if I couldn't find a tenant to sublet quickly.

Dave, your REA is right. There is no consistently magic answer to beating the market and paying less than everyone else. If there was anything like that, soon everyone would be doing it and it would be a guaranteed bargain no longer. Sometimes the stars align and you get a bargain. Mostly, not. Yes, winter prices tend to drop in the winter as a rule of thumb. Inventory hugely drops to match. There are bidding wars over choice properties and dogs wait hopefully for the desperate.

Watch the market all year and if you see something that lines up with what you want at the price you want, go for it.

[ChristineVA]

As boyd888 said, houses are not cheaper in the winter. Less people are selling and buying. Also, many people who decide to sell in the dead of winter do it because they have to (it's not the ideal time to list). They may be much more motivated to "move" the house knowing there are less buyers and they need to go. So you could possibly negotiate a price drop or something.

[ACWhite]

Houses on the market in the winter may also be holdovers that didn't sell in the fall. So they may be overpriced until the seller finally gives in and accepts a lower price, which might then appear to be a "bargain", but isn't.

[destinedtodave]

Thanks for the feedback, all. I won't view winter as some sort of bargain bin, although my search may end up taking that long.

[Pub-911]

Units sold peak in May-June-July. Days on the market tend to hit their yearly lows in those months. If you are either a buyer or a seller though, the only sale that matters is the one you are involved in, and that can happen at any time.

[Middlin]

I agree with ACWHITE. I see this in my own neighborhood. Sellers over price their house and don't sell in prime time. Take house off the market and then relist after the holidays at a reduced price. Takes some people awhile to come to grips with what the market will bear.

[Pub-911]

As a seller, you have only one shot at this. You do not necessarily want so much to sell quickly as you want to sell into the higher end of the market, i.e., to those most motivated to purchase your particular property.

[Carlingtonian]

I think buyers have a slight (or better) advantage in winter, because someone selling in winter more likely MUST do so, whereas many would-be buyers can just stay put or rent a while longer if they don't find something they like. Yes, some people are likewise forced to buy in winter, but I think it's less common. The person moving across the country for a job has to sell their house here, but once at the new city, they have the option of waiting to buy and renting in the meantime.

My take is that this means winter sellers are more motivated to sell. So if you by contrast are not obligated to buy at that time, you're at an advantage. As a buyer you'll have less to choose from, but you'll get a better deal. Your attitude can be, "Good luck selling your house in the bitter cold, to the 10 people lookio buy. Here's my offer; take it or leave it."